Where do top players on championship teams come from?

[idiot]

(This is a revised chart that I originally posted on the Purgatory thread. I made some mistakes there, so I deleted and am posting here.)

This chart shows the win trajectories of championship teams over the past 12 years and when they obtained their top players (in relation to their first championship within these past 12 years). I believe there's 24 players represented on this chart -- 3 from each of the 8 teams that won championships during these years (except 2 for Lakers and 4 for Spurs). It may be worth noting that only 3 of these 24 players were obtained in an off-season where the team won fewer than 25 games (Duncan, Dirk, Kyrie).

The colored circles indicate how a player was obtained (blue = drafted; red = traded; green = free agency [all Lebron]). The number inside the circle indicates best player on team (1), 2nd best player (2), etc.

I interpret this chart as saying, once again, that when it comes to winning championships, making great decisions is much more important than bottoming out record-wise. Important players on championship teams can be found by teams with lots of different types of records (including in the "Purgatory" range).

 

[Hearsky]

Wait. You want to know where babies come from?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Wait. You want to know where babies come from?

I know a lady that can help this fella. (your mom)

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

To win a championship, a team really needs to have a top-5 player. For a market like the Jazz, this type of talent needs to be acquired via the draft, as no one is going to trade us that kind of player and no one expects that such a player will sign with Utah in free agency. There is a higher probability for players taken at or near the top of the draft to become top-5 talents. So generally, it's better to have a higher draft pick than a lower one.

Obviously, there are exceptions to this--e.g., Kawhi, Giannis, Jokic, etc., who were all taken mid-1st round or later. These players all developed well and exceeded the expectations that were placed on them as prospects. In any case, teams need to draft players for upside and take swings on players that have top-5 potential if and when such an opportunity presents itself. If a team is drafting later in the draft order, it means that teams above them need to make mistakes. The Jazz were only able to draft Karl Malone because the teams picking ahead of them took players like Jon Koncak, Joe Klein and Keith Lee. Otherwise, the opportunity to draft Malone would not have presented itself to the Jazz.

I was in favor of the Jazz tearing down their roster this summer because it was obvious that the Jazz didn't have a franchise player with the potential to become a top-5 player in the league. Until they have that kind of talent on their roster, they're not going to go anywhere.