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Will Trump and the R's induce a recession on purpose?

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franklin

Well-Known Member
It's normally the party without the presidency that declares economic war on America, but this time seems different. Here's my theory:

We are bound for a recession after such a long time without one. The longest period without a recession in the post-war era is 10 years. We are looking at about 7 right now. IMO there is a pretty strong probability of a recession sometime in Trump's first 4 years. If it happens on the back end it will hurt his re-election chances and risk republicans losing the election. If it happens in his first year the R's can blame it on the democrats and might not get hurt in the 2 year election cycle coming up.

I'm on standby. Several things could trigger a recession and they'd be pretty easy to spot. Ball is in there (R's) court sort of thing.
 
franklin said:
It's normally the party without the presidency that declares economic war on America, but this time seems different. Here's my theory:

We are bound for a recession after such a long time without one. The longest period without a recession in the post-war era is 10 years. We are looking at about 7 right now. IMO there is a pretty strong probability of a recession sometime in Trump's first 4 years. If it happens on the back end it will hurt his re-election chances and risk republicans losing the election. If it happens in his first year the R's can blame it on the democrats and might not get hurt in the 2 year election cycle coming up.

I'm on standby. Several things could trigger a recession and they'd be pretty easy to spot. Ball is in there (R's) court sort of thing.
Click to expand...

What things could trigger the recession that are easy to spot?
 
Cunning Linguist said:
What things could trigger the recession that are easy to spot?
Click to expand...

The amount of privately held debt. It's at about $12 Trillion right now, which many think is near a breaking point. That's where it was, for example, just before the 2008 recession.
 
Even if we aren't "due" for a recession, it's in Trump's best interest (given his limited skillset as an economic leader) to NOT walk us back from the ledge we're already on. He's a crony capitalist all the way down to his marrow; and he has more leverage for all his dope-*** renegotiations if he can get congress to print some bailout money for him to flush through his channels. The taxpayer should get prepared for a soaking.
 
I'm worried a out a housing market correction. This market feels like it is unsustainable. But that being said, there are so many jobs and so few places to live that it might be sustainable if we can keep the economic growth.
 
Or it could be that Trump is actually going to try and fix things, but the crooked bankers and Fed will try to screw him over and make him look bad by inducing a recession. The Fed instantly raised rates once he was elected. That stinks a little.

I dont know if it were just for show or what, but he didnt seem to be making too many friends with the "elite class" during his campaign.
 
b_line said:
I'm worried a out a housing market correction. This market feels like it is unsustainable. But that being said, there are so many jobs and so few places to live that it might be sustainable if we can keep the economic growth.
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a correction is good right?



i mean why call it a correction if its bad!
 
NAOS said:
The amount of privately held debt. It's at about $12 Trillion right now, which many think is near a breaking point. That's where it was, for example, just before the 2008 recession.
Click to expand...

One of my primary complaints against Obama (which admittedly was made more difficult by Republican control of Congress) was his tepid approach to Wall St. regulation (and the fact that virtually none of the Wall St. crooks responsible for tanking our economy back in 2007-8 were ever held responsible). As far as I know, the situation has not changed much viz regulating Wall St.'s penchant for financial shennanigans, greed, group think, and habit of speculating with other people's money. Banks are still too big to fail, and Wall St. folks know (or believe) that whatever they do, they'll come out of it just fine, even if the rest of the country burns.

What to me is as scary (or more so) than the prospect of another recession is that Republicans are not in charge, many of whom (if you believer their rhetoric) whould have let the US economy fall into the abys back in 2008 rather than bail out the financial system and automobile industry. As painful as it is to let the Wall St. crooks and greedy incompetent corproate CEOs and managerial elite off the hook, that is far better than making them pay, and ruining the economy in the process. G.W. Bush, for all his other incompetencies, at least had the sense, and was not blinded by ideology, to enact TARP. With right wing ideologues in control, however, I fear that their response to another crisis will be to make it worse, on 'principled' grounds. Bailing the economy out was painful, but it was the absolute right thing to do, as much as I hated letting the damned Wall St. crooks get away with it, yet again.
 
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