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Will Trump and the R's induce a recession on purpose?

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franklin

Well-Known Member
It's normally the party without the presidency that declares economic war on America, but this time seems different. Here's my theory:

We are bound for a recession after such a long time without one. The longest period without a recession in the post-war era is 10 years. We are looking at about 7 right now. IMO there is a pretty strong probability of a recession sometime in Trump's first 4 years. If it happens on the back end it will hurt his re-election chances and risk republicans losing the election. If it happens in his first year the R's can blame it on the democrats and might not get hurt in the 2 year election cycle coming up.

I'm on standby. Several things could trigger a recession and they'd be pretty easy to spot. Ball is in there (R's) court sort of thing.
 
franklin said:
It's normally the party without the presidency that declares economic war on America, but this time seems different. Here's my theory:

We are bound for a recession after such a long time without one. The longest period without a recession in the post-war era is 10 years. We are looking at about 7 right now. IMO there is a pretty strong probability of a recession sometime in Trump's first 4 years. If it happens on the back end it will hurt his re-election chances and risk republicans losing the election. If it happens in his first year the R's can blame it on the democrats and might not get hurt in the 2 year election cycle coming up.

I'm on standby. Several things could trigger a recession and they'd be pretty easy to spot. Ball is in there (R's) court sort of thing.
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What things could trigger the recession that are easy to spot?
 
Cunning Linguist said:
What things could trigger the recession that are easy to spot?
Click to expand...

The amount of privately held debt. It's at about $12 Trillion right now, which many think is near a breaking point. That's where it was, for example, just before the 2008 recession.
 
Even if we aren't "due" for a recession, it's in Trump's best interest (given his limited skillset as an economic leader) to NOT walk us back from the ledge we're already on. He's a crony capitalist all the way down to his marrow; and he has more leverage for all his dope-*** renegotiations if he can get congress to print some bailout money for him to flush through his channels. The taxpayer should get prepared for a soaking.
 
I'm worried a out a housing market correction. This market feels like it is unsustainable. But that being said, there are so many jobs and so few places to live that it might be sustainable if we can keep the economic growth.
 
Or it could be that Trump is actually going to try and fix things, but the crooked bankers and Fed will try to screw him over and make him look bad by inducing a recession. The Fed instantly raised rates once he was elected. That stinks a little.

I dont know if it were just for show or what, but he didnt seem to be making too many friends with the "elite class" during his campaign.
 
b_line said:
I'm worried a out a housing market correction. This market feels like it is unsustainable. But that being said, there are so many jobs and so few places to live that it might be sustainable if we can keep the economic growth.
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a correction is good right?



i mean why call it a correction if its bad!
 
NAOS said:
The amount of privately held debt. It's at about $12 Trillion right now, which many think is near a breaking point. That's where it was, for example, just before the 2008 recession.
Click to expand...

One of my primary complaints against Obama (which admittedly was made more difficult by Republican control of Congress) was his tepid approach to Wall St. regulation (and the fact that virtually none of the Wall St. crooks responsible for tanking our economy back in 2007-8 were ever held responsible). As far as I know, the situation has not changed much viz regulating Wall St.'s penchant for financial shennanigans, greed, group think, and habit of speculating with other people's money. Banks are still too big to fail, and Wall St. folks know (or believe) that whatever they do, they'll come out of it just fine, even if the rest of the country burns.

What to me is as scary (or more so) than the prospect of another recession is that Republicans are not in charge, many of whom (if you believer their rhetoric) whould have let the US economy fall into the abys back in 2008 rather than bail out the financial system and automobile industry. As painful as it is to let the Wall St. crooks and greedy incompetent corproate CEOs and managerial elite off the hook, that is far better than making them pay, and ruining the economy in the process. G.W. Bush, for all his other incompetencies, at least had the sense, and was not blinded by ideology, to enact TARP. With right wing ideologues in control, however, I fear that their response to another crisis will be to make it worse, on 'principled' grounds. Bailing the economy out was painful, but it was the absolute right thing to do, as much as I hated letting the damned Wall St. crooks get away with it, yet again.
 
Computer said:
Or it could be that Trump is actually going to try and fix things, but the crooked bankers and Fed will try to screw him over and make him look bad by inducing a recession. The Fed instantly raised rates once he was elected. That stinks a little.

I dont know if it were just for show or what, but he didnt seem to be making too many friends with the "elite class" during his campaign.
Click to expand...

I jsut don't believe that anyone will intentionally try to induce a recession. This is crazy talk to me. I do, however, believe that there are a number of people who are insensitive to the risk, or care more about their vaction home at the Hamptons than the well-being of the economy, such that they'll take seld-directed actions, which, if not intentionally hurting the economy, will have that effect.

Trump goign to try to fix things . . . . ROFL. This guy is an elite from his orange face down to his blue balls. He's fully invested in the way things are. He's not the one to take a hacksaw to the man. He IS the man. All those blue collar dupes who thought this guy was their Savior are goign to be in for a shock when they find out he gives not a rat's backside for them and where his true loyalties lie. They were just the convenient fools who he maniptulated to help him ascend to power.
 
I don't think anyone will intentionally induce a recession. I think one will naturally come due to their boom and bust cycle of economics.

I do however think that trump and his cabinet members along with tea party types in the house can and probably will make the upcmoming recesssion worse. Either through their own pro billionaire greed or through rigid ideology.

As Jimmy said, TARP was the right thing to do back in 2008. Yet it would be DOA in today's House.
 
Computer said:
Or it could be that Trump is actually going to try and fix things, but the crooked bankers and Fed will try to screw him over and make him look bad by inducing a recession. The Fed instantly raised rates once he was elected. That stinks a little.

I dont know if it were just for show or what, but he didnt seem to be making too many friends with the "elite class" during his campaign.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure they'd been talking about raising rates for a few months now seeing the continual decline in unemployment rates and stock market booms. In fact, seeing those indicators why wouldn't the Feds had raised rates?
 
jimmy eat jazz said:
One of my primary complaints against Obama (which admittedly was made more difficult by Republican control of Congress) was his tepid approach to Wall St. regulation (and the fact that virtually none of the Wall St. crooks responsible for tanking our economy back in 2007-8 were ever held responsible). As far as I know, the situation has not changed much viz regulating Wall St.'s penchant for financial shennanigans, greed, group think, and habit of speculating with other people's money. Banks are still too big to fail, and Wall St. folks know (or believe) that whatever they do, they'll come out of it just fine, even if the rest of the country burns.

What to me is as scary (or more so) than the prospect of another recession is that Republicans are not in charge, many of whom (if you believer their rhetoric) whould have let the US economy fall into the abys back in 2008 rather than bail out the financial system and automobile industry. As painful as it is to let the Wall St. crooks and greedy incompetent corproate CEOs and managerial elite off the hook, that is far better than making them pay, and ruining the economy in the process. G.W. Bush, for all his other incompetencies, at least had the sense, and was not blinded by ideology, to enact TARP. With right wing ideologues in control, however, I fear that their response to another crisis will be to make it worse, on 'principled' grounds. Bailing the economy out was painful, but it was the absolute right thing to do, as much as I hated letting the damned Wall St. crooks get away with it, yet again.
Click to expand...

I appreciate this post, but is there some editing that needs to be done? Or am I missing a nuanced distinction you're using? thanks.
 
Happy Days are Here Again

Franklin is a devout Keynesian extraordinaire. The goldbrickers are howling about Trump's plan to spend $1T on infrastructure, just like Hillary was gonna do. Other than that, his plan seems to be serious tax cuts and doing the whoa on Obamacare, repeal and replace. Kinda hard to just stop it dead in its tracks. And shred a lot of regulations. The oil pipeline from Canada to the Texas refineries and ports, relief for the coal miners and a lot of other businesses. In view of all this the Fed plan to keep the interest rates low, maybe even go negative, is in the dungpile. I think Computer is right. The established interests will try to make an epic fail of Trump.

When it comes to Guvmint cutting the checks and spending them to bail out bankers and political supporters, Obama has been pretty bad, and Hillary would have been the worst ever. I don't believe in "Keynesian economics" but I recognize that humans being willing to roll outta bed, or get off the daytime soap/fast food/couch potato habit, is the key to economics. Brigham Young did it for the Mormon refugees in the Great Basin by issing Bishop's Storehouse scrip, notes backed by nothing but Brighams' name and good faith. It worked. Spencer Eccles brought that concept to the Fed in the FDR administration, and the scholars gave Keynes the credit. But Trump's little plays to boost oil and coal are really not the big news. The big news is solar, new technological breakthroughs are making it economically competitive, perhaps a clear winner. People will be putting lots of solar on their roofs, enough that power plants will be taken offline. Electric cars will be making a new market with a new generation of technology. People will want to plug their cars into their solar power plant at home. I think the free market will really change the way we all do stuff. And the cartelists will have trouble holding their oil and coal price targets. Gold will go back $500 and silver to $6. There will be a downward correction in housing prices, part of it due to Fed interest increases, and part due to oversupply as immigration slows, but it will be moderate because people will be getting better jobs and upgrading their living standards.

A lot of people are energized by Trump's victory, present company excepted. There is palpable hope in the eyes of smaller business owners. The price oil is going down, and will go down, and the Russian Bear will be having to scramble for new cash flows. The price of gold and silver will go down commensurate with the reduced costs of production....mostly fuel for the big earth-moving trucks driven by vitual slaves around the world.

Obama and the elites of the CFR stripe are throwing the guvmint furniture in Trump's path to slow him down, but I think he's gonna make damn sure people are getting good jobs once again. That will overpower all the countervailing forces combined.
 
Is that what Franklin says he is it are you going around deciding other people believe again?
 
jimmy eat jazz said:
I jsut don't believe that anyone will intentionally try to induce a recession. This is crazy talk to me. I do, however, believe that there are a number of people who are insensitive to the risk, or care more about their vaction home at the Hamptons than the well-being of the economy, such that they'll take seld-directed actions, which, if not intentionally hurting the economy, will have that effect.

Trump goign to try to fix things . . . . ROFL. This guy is an elite from his orange face down to his blue balls. He's fully invested in the way things are. He's not the one to take a hacksaw to the man. He IS the man. All those blue collar dupes who thought this guy was their Savior are goign to be in for a shock when they find out he gives not a rat's backside for them and where his true loyalties lie. They were just the convenient fools who he maniptulated to help him ascend to power.
Click to expand...

You can laugh all you want, but werent people like you laughing at the idea of him even being preisdent, and then he was? How many times are you willing be wrong on this and look stupid?

Im not saying there is any guarantee that he can or will fix things. But we know Hillary wasnt. There is at least a glimmer of hope with Trump. He is the only one who was actually willing to stick his neck out there and go against the establishment. Just the fact that he pissed off so much of the establishment is a good sign to me. Supposedly he is already nixing the TPP deal. So thats a good sign.

If all the people that are constantly wrong about this stuff want to say he wont do it, then I am going the other way. Im gonna go with he will do great things and surprise many people. Maybe even be the best president ever.


Again, laugh it up. We will see. Smh
 
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