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Worst player from draft you'd take guaranteed vs. playing out rest of the season or lottery?

D

Deron Williams

Well-Known Member
That is, the Jazz could conceivably pick anywhere from 1 (with good lottery luck) to 11 (with terrible lottery luck). If you were given the choice between being guaranteed player X in the draft vs. letting the rest of the season/lottery play out, who is the worst player you'd accept in that tradeoff?

Mine would probably be Marcus Smart. I rate Wiggins, Embiid, Parker & Exum over him.

If any player other than those five were offered in this scenario, I'd prefer to just take my chances with the lottery.
 
Although unlikely, Jazz could still conceivably draft #14. Only teams that they almost assuredly can't catch are Phoenix and Minnesota. And highly unlikely to finish with a better record than Denver (7 games back). I see the Jazz as likely finishing somewhere in the 6-8 range pre-lottery drawing. I'm still intrigued by Vonleh in that range.
 
At this point, with the Jazz's current record and remaining schedule, they'll end up in a top-6 position heading into the lotto and they're all but guaranteed a top 7 pick. I'd want to play out the season and see if we can get our position up to top 5 or top 4, then see if we get into the top 3 via luck in the lottery.

There's no reason to give up that opportunity, as we have everything to gain and nothing to lose. I don't see how the Jazz would end up picking below 7th in the draft. We're losing games at a healthy clip and are keeping pace with the Celtics, Lakers and Kings.

Embiid, Wiggins, Parker and Exum are the big prizes in this draft. If the Jazz get one of those, then they should be a top-4 team in the west within a few years.

If you say the Jazz are guaranteed one of those top-4 players, then maybe I'd be willing to fold the cards in your scenario.
 
Catchall said:
At this point, with the Jazz's current record and remaining schedule, they'll end up in a top-6 position heading into the lotto and they're all but guaranteed a top 7 pick. I'd want to play out the season and see if we can get our position up to top 5 or top 4, then see if we get into the top 3 via luck in the lottery.

There's no reason to give up that opportunity, as we have everything to gain and nothing to lose. I don't see how the Jazz would end up picking below 7th in the draft. We're losing games at a healthy clip and are keeping pace with the Celtics, Lakers and Kings.

Embiid, Wiggins, Parker and Exum are the big prizes in this draft. If the Jazz get one of those, then they should be a top-4 team in the west within a few years.

If you say the Jazz are guaranteed one of those top-4 players, then maybe I'd be willing to fold the cards in your scenario.
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Well I still think other things need to happen before the Jazz just become a top 4 team. THe West is loaded with good teams. The Jazz current players need to improve and the Jazz need to retain as many as possible. Beside I think all four guys you mentioned aren't just going to walk on the floor and dominate every game. They don't even do that in college.
 
Tony said:
This question confuses me.
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I think what he's saying is what player would you take to be on the Jazz next season to give up any chance of winning the lottery. Honestly Smart is my choice as well. But someone who thinks Smart would bust would probably rather take their chances to win the lottery.

And I'm guessing for others they would rather risk sliding down to 8th or 10th to get a shot at the lottery than be slotted 4th-6th or so. Not that the NBA works that way but if Stern (wait, guess he isn't around anymore...Silver) offered the Jazz to be slotted 4th right now and have their choice between say Exum and Randle and Smart (if the top 3 locks are Parker, Embid, Wiggins) I'd take that if I were the Jazz. Other people would prefer to have that 30% or whatever shot in the top 3.
 
Catchall said:
At this point, with the Jazz's current record and remaining schedule, they'll end up in a top-6 position heading into the lotto and they're all but guaranteed a top 7 pick. I'd want to play out the season and see if we can get our position up to top 5 or top 4, then see if we get into the top 3 via luck in the lottery.
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We hope. But Boston, Sacramento, Detroit and Lakers all have tougher schedules. And don't count out Cleveland just yet. They have a brutal week which could easily demoralize them, especially with NY playing better and Atlanta righting their ship. Cavs could see the playoffs as unrealistic and start tanking.

Jazz on the other hand have 5 home games they should win and they've generally played tough against even elite teams at home; 5-7 more wins is a definite possibilty for Utah while some of the others just win 3-4 games.
 
Any of Wiggins, Parker, Exum, or Embiid I would take as a sure thing, but anyone beyond that I would take my chances in the lottery.
 
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