Here's Zach Lowe's latest article which talks about Hayward's contract situation. It's interesting read so just thought I would share.
https://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9928311/the-murky-waters-restricted-free-agency-their-way-2014
https://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9928311/the-murky-waters-restricted-free-agency-their-way-2014
Take the case of Hayward. He's a very nice player — a jack-of-all-trades/master-of-none type who could fit on any team. The Bucks, Mavs, Cavaliers (depending on LeBron), Pistons, and Suns are among teams with big potential cap room and an obvious need on the wing. The Lakers are slated to enter the offseason with a bundle of room and needs just about everywhere.
That's a lot of potential suitors! But the largest offer sheet they could dangle would be a four-year deal with a maximum salary equal to 25 percent of the cap level4 — something like $14 million or $15 million per season, with an annual raise of 4.5 percent. That's significantly smaller than the $20 million–plus max-level deals for which longer-tenured veterans are eligible.
If Hayward jumps a level this season, the Jazz might well value him at something like $12 million per year. A rival team drooling over that jump in play might hit Hayward with the dreaded max offer sheet, but is Utah really going to let Hayward walk away over a $2 million valuation gap? The Jazz are about as flexible as it gets, flush with cap space even after extending Favors. They can afford to swallow hard and overpay.
But what if Hayward plateaus? Wing players are everywhere. They can find the market cooler than expected, precisely because they are somewhat fungible unless they bring one or two truly elite skills. Hayward, to this point, does not. If his development stalls out, the Jazz might be able to snag him at a much lower price than Hayward's agent likely demanded during recent extension talks. The max-level deal the Pacers gave Paul George, selected one spot after Hayward in the 2010 draft, hovered over the Hayward extension talks. The two players have roughly equivalent per-minute statistics, and Hayward has been the superior 3-point shooter. Utah fans love to make the comparison, whining that the world has overlooked Hayward while deifying George, and Hayward's agent would have been dumb not to trot out the same stats — and to point out that George has worked with a much better veteran surrounding cast.
But the argument doesn't quite pass muster, mostly because the per-minute numbers ignore a thing called "defense" that comprises half of every NBA game. Hayward has been uneven as a defender, both one-on-one and within Utah's team rotations. George is already among the dozen or so best defenders in the game. His wingspan is almost four inches longer than Hayward's — a big difference — and Hayward this season must prove he can defend bigger wings consistently.
George has to prove no such thing. George has struggled at times as a lead ball handler, but he has shown major improvements in the early going this season, and he's already a bigger threat than Hayward from the post and the elbows.
Hayward isn't there yet, and he's the kind of player who can get squeezed in free agency. Of the 19 guys who have received extensions in the last three years, all but five have been either big guys or point guards. That leaves five wing players — a cheapie (Pondexter), a budding star (George), a clear franchise guy (James Harden), DeMar DeRozan, and Danilo Gallinari. The Jazz might be betting Hayward's value comes in closer to the DeRozan/Gallinari/Jeff Green range — between $9 million and $11 million per season. If so, they made the right call letting Hayward walk in free agency, assuming he demanded more than that. The same is true of Detroit with Monroe, whose agent, David Falk, made it no secret he wants Monroe's next deal to be a max-level contract. Ditto for Phoenix with Eric Bledsoe, who reportedly targeted a $10 million annual deal on the Lawson/Curry level despite never having started full-time.
(As an aside, Turner is an interesting case. The league assumes the Sixers want to trade Turner if his market heats up, and that assumption is probably correct. Might Turner's trade value have increased had Philly signed him to an extension, providing future cost certainty for any team interested in acquiring him this season? Trading a player in that situation is hard, since the CBA instituted a poison pill provision that applies specifically to fourth-year players who have agreed to an extension. But the CBA also broadened the rules about how much salary must go in and out in trades, at least for non-tax teams, making theoretical Turner deals a bit easier to construct. Food for thought.)
If Hayward plays up to a larger deal, the Jazz can happily sign it — either on their own or via matching an offer sheet.
They can also use the CBA to their advantage in other ways. Only Utah can offer Hayward an extra fifth year on his next contract.5 That extra year becomes proportionally more valuable as contracts across the league get shorter. Teams can use it as something of a hammer now. If the Jazz get wind another team is about to lavish Hayward with a four-year max offer, they can work on Hayward to sign a five-year deal carrying a lower annual salary — perhaps even a descending annual salary, so en vogue now for teams anticipating future commitments.
If the team is fine with the terms of the rival's four-year offer sheet, it can just match and celebrate shaving a year off the back end of the contract. This is essentially what happened with Roy Hibbert, who signed a four-year max-level deal with the Pacers after discussing an offer sheet with the Blazers under those exact terms. Going four years with Hibbert allowed Indiana to reserve its one-time-only five-year "designated player" extension for George.6
And the market for Hayward might not get that frothy. Rival teams stay away from restricted free agents, fearing they must overpay to trump matching rights. Nobody came after Nikola Pekovic this summer, and poor Gerald Henderson could barely draw a whiff of interest beyond Charlotte. Suitors also don't want to tie up their cap space for 72 hours with an outstanding offer sheet. Incumbent teams have those 72 hours to decide about matching, and the suitors are stuck waiting during that window as other potential fits sign left and right. The new CBA actually reduced that span from a week to three days, but teams are still loath to tie up their books this way.
That's one reason we see so many sign-and-trade transactions involving restricted free agents — Ryan Anderson, Tyreke Evans, etc. A suitor interested in such a player can avoid the offer sheet tie-up by going to that player's agent, floating a salary figure, and having the agent float that salary to the player's current team. If that team indicates it will match, the game's over; this is what Portland has experienced two years running, with Hibbert and Tiago Splitter. If the team would rather make a deal, well, it's time to talk sign-and-trade. Such moves also sew goodwill around the league, since nobody goes away empty-handed.
In other words: There's very little downside to letting the market play things out, unless you're a tax team vulnerable to some mega-offer, or carrying a second-round pick eligible for the so-called "Gilbert Arenas" offers with which Houston smacked the Knicks and Bulls across the face in signing Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. It's one thing if you're getting a discount, or at least you think you are. But there was no pressing reason for Washington and Sacramento to sign Wall and Cousins to max-level extensions despite a limited track record of max-level worthiness.7
Check that: Different teams consider different reasons "pressing." The Wiz, chasing a playoff spot, were concerned about preserving team chemistry and keeping Wall's power agent, Dan Fegan, happy and calm.8 The Kings were concerned about how Cousins might act facing free agency, and about putting out a credible product as a new ownership assumes control and battles for a new arena.
But the system of rules in place did not push those teams into signing potentially premature max-level deals. If teams have any doubt, they should usually play it out.
