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Following potential 2015 draftees

idiot said:
Let’s talk about potential or upside. I think it’s one of the most misunderstood characteristics in the draft.

Of this year’s 40 top Real +/- players in the NBA:
25 were drafted below the top five of their draft classes
22 were drafted below the top 10 of their draft classes
18 were drafted below the top 15 of their draft classes

Just to get a sense of whether these players were viewed as high upside or high potential prospects in the draft, I looked at the nbadraft.net ratings to see whether “potential” was one of their top attributes. (Yes, I know I’m treading in dangerous waters going to that site, but I think in the aggregate it probably does a fair job of representing whether players were considered to have high upsides or not).

Five players weren’t rated, but of the 20 (of the 25 above) that were, only 7 had “potential” as one of their two highest qualities, and for several of these 7, “potential” was tied with one or more other qualities. These players were Middleton (hard to believe), Zach Randolph, Deandre Jordan, Lowry, George Hill, Mirotic, and Bledsoe.

The average “potential” score for those 20 players was 7.75/10, which if you’ve spent any time at nbadraft.net, you’ll know is nothing special. Some notable low scores: Draymond Green 6, Millsap 7, Jimmy Butler 6, Klay Thompson 7, Matthews 6, Olynyk 7, Splitter 7.

To add to this, here’s what DX had to say about some of these players:

Stephen Curry: battles but defense limited by “poor physical tools”; because of average first step he’ll “probably need to have some other shot creators playing alongside him”

Kawhi Leonard: “lack of a go-to offensive skill”; “offensive inefficiency”

Draymond Green: “defensive deficiencies have become even more pronounced as a senior”; too small for post, too slow for perimeter; “difficult to project him as an adequate NBA defender”; with his versatility, maybe he can get drafted, make a roster or even earn a spot role.

Khris Middleton: “hasn’t progressed much as a player” from earlier seasons; “just average length”; real questions if game can translate against more athletic players; “struggles to move well laterally”

Paul Millsap: “his upside is not off the charts”; “footwork not nearly as polished” as fellow tweeners Ike Diogu and Sean May

Gordon Hayward: “questionable athleticism”; “he won’t be relied upon to create late in the shot clock or carry his team”; defensive potential iffy because of “lack of lateral quickness and physical strength”; “lack of athleticism raises questions about his long-term potential”

Jimmy Butler: “not a tremendous physical specimen”; “lacks explosiveness, a strong frame, and great lateral quickness”; defensively “Butler’s best asset is his wingspan”; lack of leaping ability [editorial comment: just wow!!]

Marc Gasol: well-rounded player in Europe, but lack of athleticism makes him a real question mark for NBA

Klay Thompson: “athletic limitations”; “struggles on the defensive end”; “taken off the dribble often”; “he’d have to do a lot of work to become even an average NBA defender overall”; “probably doesn’t have significant upside beyond what he is now due to his athletic limitations”

Damian Lillard: “struggled in a couple of his higher profile games”

Wesley Matthews: “doesn’t have one standout quality that he really excels with, something NBA scouts and executives usually look for in the later stages of the draft”

And Rodney Hood, for good measure, even though he wasn’t a RPM top 40: “he’ll have to improve his motor and hustle quite a bit”; “not particularly young”; defense a huge question mark due to effort, average athleticism, poor length, terrible steals/blocks/rebound numbers

My point is that “potential” or “upside” is more unpredictable than we give it credit for. It’s certainly not simply equal to athleticism or skills or youth or length and is probably at least as related to BBIQ, motor, and capacity put in individual work.

I don’t know how this affects the Jazz draft this year, but it seems clear that any ceiling we put on a player’s potential now is quite artificial.
Click to expand...

Looks like DX was wrong about every one of them players but yet people still use that sight.lmao
 
idiot said:
Let’s talk about potential or upside. I think it’s one of the most misunderstood characteristics in the draft.

Of this year’s 40 top Real +/- players in the NBA:
25 were drafted below the top five of their draft classes
22 were drafted below the top 10 of their draft classes
18 were drafted below the top 15 of their draft classes

Just to get a sense of whether these players were viewed as high upside or high potential prospects in the draft, I looked at the nbadraft.net ratings to see whether “potential” was one of their top attributes. (Yes, I know I’m treading in dangerous waters going to that site, but I think in the aggregate it probably does a fair job of representing whether players were considered to have high upsides or not).

Five players weren’t rated, but of the 20 (of the 25 above) that were, only 7 had “potential” as one of their two highest qualities, and for several of these 7, “potential” was tied with one or more other qualities. These players were Middleton (hard to believe), Zach Randolph, Deandre Jordan, Lowry, George Hill, Mirotic, and Bledsoe.

The average “potential” score for those 20 players was 7.75/10, which if you’ve spent any time at nbadraft.net, you’ll know is nothing special. Some notable low scores: Draymond Green 6, Millsap 7, Jimmy Butler 6, Klay Thompson 7, Matthews 6, Olynyk 7, Splitter 7.

To add to this, here’s what DX had to say about some of these players:

Stephen Curry: battles but defense limited by “poor physical tools”; because of average first step he’ll “probably need to have some other shot creators playing alongside him”

Kawhi Leonard: “lack of a go-to offensive skill”; “offensive inefficiency”

Draymond Green: “defensive deficiencies have become even more pronounced as a senior”; too small for post, too slow for perimeter; “difficult to project him as an adequate NBA defender”; with his versatility, maybe he can get drafted, make a roster or even earn a spot role.

Khris Middleton: “hasn’t progressed much as a player” from earlier seasons; “just average length”; real questions if game can translate against more athletic players; “struggles to move well laterally”

Paul Millsap: “his upside is not off the charts”; “footwork not nearly as polished” as fellow tweeners Ike Diogu and Sean May

Gordon Hayward: “questionable athleticism”; “he won’t be relied upon to create late in the shot clock or carry his team”; defensive potential iffy because of “lack of lateral quickness and physical strength”; “lack of athleticism raises questions about his long-term potential”

Jimmy Butler: “not a tremendous physical specimen”; “lacks explosiveness, a strong frame, and great lateral quickness”; defensively “Butler’s best asset is his wingspan”; lack of leaping ability [editorial comment: just wow!!]

Marc Gasol: well-rounded player in Europe, but lack of athleticism makes him a real question mark for NBA

Klay Thompson: “athletic limitations”; “struggles on the defensive end”; “taken off the dribble often”; “he’d have to do a lot of work to become even an average NBA defender overall”; “probably doesn’t have significant upside beyond what he is now due to his athletic limitations”

Damian Lillard: “struggled in a couple of his higher profile games”

Wesley Matthews: “doesn’t have one standout quality that he really excels with, something NBA scouts and executives usually look for in the later stages of the draft”

And Rodney Hood, for good measure, even though he wasn’t a RPM top 40: “he’ll have to improve his motor and hustle quite a bit”; “not particularly young”; defense a huge question mark due to effort, average athleticism, poor length, terrible steals/blocks/rebound numbers

My point is that “potential” or “upside” is more unpredictable than we give it credit for. It’s certainly not simply equal to athleticism or skills or youth or length and is probably at least as related to BBIQ, motor, and capacity put in individual work.

I don’t know how this affects the Jazz draft this year, but it seems clear that any ceiling we put on a player’s potential now is quite artificial.
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Great post. Some of these scouting reports are short-sighted to be sure, as though they didn't really assess the players well. Paul Millsap, for example, had led the NCAAs in rebounding, so that should have hinted at his motor, work ethic and desire. Some players had more athleticism than they showed in college, simply due to the roles they played. That report on Damian Lillard is useless.

That said, I agree with HH--with players who aren't obviously knock-out athletes, the key issue is how hard they're willing to work and their tenacity, things that aren't easy to see without scouting more thoroughly. So much of the game is mental--being resilient, tenacious, mature, etc.--rather than purely physical.

Then you have a few unique cases where players just exceeded expectations. No one could have predicted Steph Curry playing at his current level.
 
Lol @ the Dray Green and Jimmy Butler evaluations. Basically if a draft site says a guy can't defend (or really anything that can't be measured - Curry's first step, lol), ignore it.
 
Flying under the radar Porzingis had another good game. I think another case of a coach not playing the young guy enough. Only played 23 minutes. If by any crazy scenario he slips past 7 trade up for this man.
 
NCJazz said:
Flying under the radar Porzingis had another good game. I think another case of a coach not playing the young guy enough. Only played 23 minutes. If by any crazy scenario he slips past 7 trade up for this man.
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23 minutes is a pretty good amount in Euroleagues.

Tomic, a star, gets around 24 mpg.
 
As far as DX being wrong on these guys... So were nba GMs. These guys are outliers and it would have been crazy to say that they would turn into all stars when they were projected in the late first round or second round for the most part. DX is the best draft site and I don't think its close. This stuff isn't a perfect science at all.

I still can't figure out how Curry does what he does when he's so slight. You won't see anyone else like him again.
 
Pointing to outliers is not the best way to make a point about the masses... neither is cherry picking 5 words out of 2000 word reviews. There will always be bad evaluations, incredible and unpredictable success stories, as well as unbelievable busts. A lot of the things mentioned in those articles were true at the time they were made. Through will power and tons of work a lot of those prospects have managed to excel in the areas they were thought to be lacking.

This list of players is more a testament for their work ethic and desire to improve than it is for DX or NBA scouts inability to evaluate talent and current level of skill. That's why I'm usually higher on raw(skill-wise) prospects with exceptional work ethic combined with great measurements and tools than the average person. They enter the environment with the best coaches and specialists in the game, who are masters at identifying both talent and weaknesses and improvements in both are to be expected. The thing is that nebulous terms like "work ethic", "will power", "desire to succeed", "mental fortitude" are hard to measure and quantify especially when you haven't seen those players work and interact with teammates on a daily basis. Anybody can fake effort for scouts in a single workout, faking it every day for years and years is much harder...
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
As far as DX being wrong on these guys... So were nba GMs. These guys are outliers and it would have been crazy to say that they would turn into all stars when they were projected in the late first round or second round for the most part. DX is the best draft site and I don't think its close. This stuff isn't a perfect science at all.

I still can't figure out how Curry does what he does when he's so slight. You won't see anyone else like him again.
Click to expand...

I still don't think Curry has an exceptional first step. I'd say Dante's is much better for example. The thing with Curry is that he's incredibly shifty and changes pace and direction effortlessly and masterfully. His hesitations are absolute killer for defenders. Dante is very very far from that right now.
 
stitches said:
I still don't think Curry has an exceptional first step. I'd say Dante's is much better for example. The thing with Curry is that he's incredibly shifty and changes pace and direction effortlessly and masterfully. His hesitations are absolute killer for defenders. Dante is very very far from that right now.
Click to expand...

The thing with Curry is that you have to give him 0 air space so he won't shoot. That makes him seem quicker since you can't play any angles on him defensively.
 
Cy said:
The thing with Curry is that you have to give him 0 air space so he won't shoot. That makes him seem quicker since you can't play any angles on him defensively.
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Both points are true imo. He is a wizard with the ball as well. Crazy handle.

He is a basketball savant. Just physically I look at him and he looks like the HS kid that the adults let play in the pick up game. He's remarkable.
 
Cy said:
The thing with Curry is that you have to give him 0 air space so he won't shoot. That makes him seem quicker since you can't play any angles on him defensively.
Click to expand...

Yep, that's very true, too... BTW since we are in the potential draftees thread - that's the exact reason I think Russell has a very good chance to be very successful offensive player. You can't leave him any room or he will burn you and he's shifty and skillful enough to take advantage of you guarding him from up close. If he makes some improvements on his handle he has the potential to be Curry type of player.
 
As much as I like to look forward to the upcoming draft, I have a feeling the Jazz are gonna trade out if the lottery balls don't go their way.
 
funny we are talking about write up when there is a player on the jazz who went undrafted. was on the jazz summer league sucked big time and now he is back and has a place on an nba roster, Elijah millsap. he was awful coming out of college. only got a chance because of his brother.
 
Crocodile Dante said:
funny we are talking about write up when there is a player on the jazz who went undrafted. was on the jazz summer league sucked big time and now he is back and has a place on an nba roster, Elijah millsap. he was awful coming out of college. only got a chance because of his brother.
Click to expand...



Wow you
Aussies are dumb.. I he would of only be from down under then he would of been underrated right?
 
Crocodile Dante said:
funny we are talking about write up when there is a player on the jazz who went undrafted. was on the jazz summer league sucked big time and now he is back and has a place on an nba roster, Elijah millsap. he was awful coming out of college. only got a chance because of his brother.
Click to expand...



Wow you
Aussies are dumb.. I he would of only be from down under then he would of been underrated right?
 
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