I wonder how instructive the career of Meyers Leonard might be in helping us think about Frank Kaminsky. They're quite different players, to be sure: Leonard looks more the part of an athletic center; Kaminsky is more skilled at dribbling, assists and perhaps posting up, and probably has a better feel for the game.
But there are some similarities. Both were nothing to speak of as freshman centers in the Big 10. They could barely get off their respective benches. Both made great leaps (per-40 minutes as sophomores). The biggest difference was that Leonard got substantially more minutes as a sophomore, though their overall effectiveness per minute played looked fairly similar.
Then Kaminsky really blossomed as a junior and blew up as a senior. Leonard on the other hand was drafted (11th). He spent two years looking quite overwhelmed, like perhaps he had little future in the league. But this year, despite several DNPs and playing fewer minutes per game (15) than he did as a rookie, he's emerged as a very intriguing player for the future. He shot 51% from the field, including 42% from 3 (45% of his shots were 3s), and 91% from the line (though he almost never got to the line). According to B-Reference, his offensive rating was 117 and defensive was 102. He's rocketed up to a RPM rank of 29th among centers (from being in the slot below Enes Kanter a year ago -- at #63).
All this despite not really having a game that features the athletic tools he has -- he's become primarily a jump shooter, and maybe a better 4 than 5. I take it not everyone in the Blazers organization is completely sold on him yet, but the fans generally appear very optimistic.
Kaminsky is one year younger than Leonard is now, and so if there is any similarity in paths, Leonard's big breakout year (3rd NBA season) occurred at the age that Kaminsky will be a rookie.
I know that every player's path is different, but what do you see as potential similarities/differences? Will Kaminsky's relative lack of athleticism doom him to lower NBA production? Or will Kaminsky's seemingly more skilled and varied offensive arsenal mitigate that?
If Kaminsky turns into a something of a Meyers Leonard, will you be satisfied (we're, of course, not even sure that Leonard can play an effective 25 mpg in the NBA yet)? Should we expect a period of Kaminsky looking overwhelmed?