Following potential 2015 draftees
- Thread starter Dr. Jones
- Start date
Yall really think the Jazz give Locke orders to talk about prospects to smokescreen when only a handful of people actually listen to it?
A few pages back I wrote about how, at least according to Vashro’s analytical modeling, this seems to be by far the strongest draft over the past 10 years in our part of the first round. I’ve also been keeping something of an eye on Looney and have been pleased to see he ranks high in most of the analytic draft models.
So I wanted to test to see if there might be some kind of bias I could discover in Vashro’s modeling that might result in Looney’s high ranking there.
I decided to find all the toolsy 3-4 tweener types I could over the last several years to see if Vashro’s (EWP) model systematically under- or overestimated their draft stock.
It didn’t. It turned out fairly balanced. Out of 34 such players, I found his model overestimated 10 players’ rankings in their class, got 16 players approximately right, and underestimated 8 players.
Maybe even a better sign: out of these 34 players, Vashro’s model order (in the draft the player was in) gave a closer approximation of the success of their career than actual draft order in 21 cases, about the same approximation as draft order for 6, and a worse approximation for just 7. So I have some confidence that while it misses on occasion, Vashro’s model is not particularly biased toward toolsy tweeners, and it also gives a closer approximation of a players’ success than actual draft order does.
With some general confidence in the model now, I may need some cold water to dampen my enthusiasm for what we might get at #12.
Johnson comes in at a 7.6 EWP (essentially an estimation of highest 2-year average of win shares during his career). So does Looney. And Kaminsky (though I didn’t test the model for 4-5 tweeners) comes in at 7.3.
That means if they come in right about this average (yes, very unlikely I know – it’s more likely that they be either somewhat higher or lower) in the prime of their careers, that prime should be about as effective as the past season for players such as Danny Green, Wall, Drummond, Teague, Korver, Nowitski, Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, and Demarre Carroll (or somewhere in the neighborhood of the 30-35th most effective players in the league).
Not bad for a #12 pick.
(Oubre projects to peak out at approximately this year’s season for Giannis, Wesley Matthews, or Rudy Gay – about the 55th most effective player in the league. Turner’s peak projects at this year’s Mirotic, Mozgov, or Faried level, while Dekker comes in at the 2014-15 Kemba Walker/Brandon Knight/Markieff Morris level. All still within the top 100 for win shares.)
What’s more, in looking at all the other toolsy 3-4 tweener types in over the last several years, Johnson’s and Looney’s 7.6 EWP scores are higher than all of those players except one, and quite a healthy bit higher. Unfortunately, that one was one of Vashro’s misses—Michael Beasely, but he probably failed for reasons other than talent.
Here’s the list of the tweeners I looked at, along with their EWP scores.
I’ll start with the players whose whose success relative to their draft class Vashro got approximately right (based on EWP rank order in that draft, not raw EWP score):
5.7 Rudy Gay
5.6 Harrison Barnes
5.2 Jeff Green
5.1 Danny Granger
4.9 Otto Porter
4.9 Gerald Wallace
4.8 Luol Deng
4.5 Trevor Ariza
4.4 Paul Millsap
3.2 Marcus Morris
2.9 Trevor Booker
2.9 Perry Jones
2.6 James Johnson
2.6 Austin Daye
2.4 Earl Clark
2.3 Quincy Miller
Here’s the players whose draft order the model rated too highly in relation to their draft class:
9.1 Michael Beasely
6.2 Terrence Jones
6.2 Marvin Williams
5.4 Derrick Williams
4.8 Jared Jefferies
4.5 Moe Harkless
4.2 Chris Singleton
4.1 Donte Greene
3.5 Anthony Randolph
3.1 Anthony Bennett
And here’s those the model underrated:
4.8 Kawhi Leonard
4.6 Draymond Green
3.7 Thaddeus Young
3.4 Tobias Harris
3.3 Tayshaun Prince
2.7 John Leuer
2.5 Chandler Parsons
2.0 Demarre Carroll
So I wanted to test to see if there might be some kind of bias I could discover in Vashro’s modeling that might result in Looney’s high ranking there.
I decided to find all the toolsy 3-4 tweener types I could over the last several years to see if Vashro’s (EWP) model systematically under- or overestimated their draft stock.
It didn’t. It turned out fairly balanced. Out of 34 such players, I found his model overestimated 10 players’ rankings in their class, got 16 players approximately right, and underestimated 8 players.
Maybe even a better sign: out of these 34 players, Vashro’s model order (in the draft the player was in) gave a closer approximation of the success of their career than actual draft order in 21 cases, about the same approximation as draft order for 6, and a worse approximation for just 7. So I have some confidence that while it misses on occasion, Vashro’s model is not particularly biased toward toolsy tweeners, and it also gives a closer approximation of a players’ success than actual draft order does.
With some general confidence in the model now, I may need some cold water to dampen my enthusiasm for what we might get at #12.
Johnson comes in at a 7.6 EWP (essentially an estimation of highest 2-year average of win shares during his career). So does Looney. And Kaminsky (though I didn’t test the model for 4-5 tweeners) comes in at 7.3.
That means if they come in right about this average (yes, very unlikely I know – it’s more likely that they be either somewhat higher or lower) in the prime of their careers, that prime should be about as effective as the past season for players such as Danny Green, Wall, Drummond, Teague, Korver, Nowitski, Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, and Demarre Carroll (or somewhere in the neighborhood of the 30-35th most effective players in the league).
Not bad for a #12 pick.
(Oubre projects to peak out at approximately this year’s season for Giannis, Wesley Matthews, or Rudy Gay – about the 55th most effective player in the league. Turner’s peak projects at this year’s Mirotic, Mozgov, or Faried level, while Dekker comes in at the 2014-15 Kemba Walker/Brandon Knight/Markieff Morris level. All still within the top 100 for win shares.)
What’s more, in looking at all the other toolsy 3-4 tweener types in over the last several years, Johnson’s and Looney’s 7.6 EWP scores are higher than all of those players except one, and quite a healthy bit higher. Unfortunately, that one was one of Vashro’s misses—Michael Beasely, but he probably failed for reasons other than talent.
Here’s the list of the tweeners I looked at, along with their EWP scores.
I’ll start with the players whose whose success relative to their draft class Vashro got approximately right (based on EWP rank order in that draft, not raw EWP score):
5.7 Rudy Gay
5.6 Harrison Barnes
5.2 Jeff Green
5.1 Danny Granger
4.9 Otto Porter
4.9 Gerald Wallace
4.8 Luol Deng
4.5 Trevor Ariza
4.4 Paul Millsap
3.2 Marcus Morris
2.9 Trevor Booker
2.9 Perry Jones
2.6 James Johnson
2.6 Austin Daye
2.4 Earl Clark
2.3 Quincy Miller
Here’s the players whose draft order the model rated too highly in relation to their draft class:
9.1 Michael Beasely
6.2 Terrence Jones
6.2 Marvin Williams
5.4 Derrick Williams
4.8 Jared Jefferies
4.5 Moe Harkless
4.2 Chris Singleton
4.1 Donte Greene
3.5 Anthony Randolph
3.1 Anthony Bennett
And here’s those the model underrated:
4.8 Kawhi Leonard
4.6 Draymond Green
3.7 Thaddeus Young
3.4 Tobias Harris
3.3 Tayshaun Prince
2.7 John Leuer
2.5 Chandler Parsons
2.0 Demarre Carroll
And to hear Jazz fans complain about his defense.
Drafting Kaminsky would instantly give the Jazz one of the best introduction/tip-off music/song/soundtrack....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV_3Dpw-BRY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV_3Dpw-BRY
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
No... the thing that makes me nervous is what Locke is saying may reflect some of the front office sentiment towards Frank. I like Locke... I think his view of Frank is off, but if he's relaying what he's heard then I worry. Same thing with his irrational love of Lyles. I think Lyles might be good, but there is nothing about the guy that jumps off at me statistically, physically, or athletically.
He isn't privy to everything, but the year we drafted Burks he loved him, he seemed to sniff out our interest in Rudy pre-draft, and last year he mentioned Hood jumping out to him. I'm not sure if he's talked so much about so many prospects that I'm doing revisionist history, but it seems he's had some insider info in the past.
I don't think any GMs, Scouts, or programmers at Hoopshype listen to the podcast so it would be awfully weird for the front office to have Locke smokescreening jazz fans
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
Tried to rep, but alas I must spread around.
I think it would be wise to add another pick in the early 20s if possible. I think this draft has some undervalued prospects. I know we don't need anymore rookies or development projects but if we grab someone now they may be a valuable contributor in 2-3 years when we are making big playoff runs.
Carbon13
Well-Known Member
RHJ is the other one Locke likes. I also wonder if the FO likes him. Just looked up his college shooting #s and was discouraged when i saw Kawhi, Iggy, and MKG were all better shooters than him. RHJs shooting numbers are very comparable to Aminus. Would yall be okay with drafting an aminu type?
Our FO is one of the FOs that leak the least information when it comes to plans for the draft. They seem to keep everything close to the vest and I don't see a case where they actually are giving him any sort of legitimate information about our plans to air out to the world. In fact, I think it's more likely(still not very likely) they are giving him smokescreens to propagate, than actual information. Our FO has absolutely no use of actual information about our plans leaking. It makes their job harder if anybody outside of the organization knows what we are planning. I simply don't see them leaking info they don't want leaked. Also, keep in mind that they probably don't even have any plans right now. They haven't even started seriously discussing who they prefer in the draft. Right now they seem to be in information accumulation mode, then when all information is in, they will start constructing the board and debating if they like Lyles better than Kaminsky or Portis, etc.
With that said, he probably has more access than most to workouts and info other people don't have, and some players might jump up to him(Rudy?). But yah, in general, I don't believe Locke is projecting any real plans out. I think he's careless with his statements sometimes and careless with the way he judges prospects he hasn't watched, but I guess that's part of his job - he has to talk about something at the end of the day...
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
I like him just not at 12. I think guys like him are effective in the regular season when there isn't enough time to fully game plan and guys guard him out to places that they shouldn't. I think in the playoffs those types are limited. He very well could be a bigger smarter Tony Allen. I think he will become a better shooter but some folks think that shot is broke.
The free throw shimmy would be worth it alone imo ... if you don't know what I'm talking about Google it.
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
I agree they wouldn't be leaking stuff, but he might be having conversations with folks and reoccurring themes keep coming up... less of a leak and more like good access and connecting dots. It may just be that if you throw enough crap against the wall some of it sticks.
mellow
Well-Known Member
I don't think the Jazz and Locke sit down and make a strategy for conning the draft.
But, Locke probably gets a little bit of inside info because he can talk to the Jazz staff.
Locke is smart, he knows that everything he says or tweets is probably hitting the computer/phone of his equivalent in every organization.
He would like to be quiet, but he also wants to demonstrate his knowledge (we all do)
I think Locke sometimes tries to nudge the conversation surrounding players one way or another, for his purposes, not the Jazz.
One area Locke will tell you about that you can't get anywhere else is character. The Jazz are looking at these potential picks lives and history, if they are bad, or have surrounded themselves with bad people the Jazz avoid them. All the teams and the league look into these players lives, but while they league publishes the draft picks handwiths and body mass index, they say next ot nothing about character. If there are red flags the NBA and NBA media are very discrete about that type of information. Locke doesn't even make a big deal of it, but he subtlety informs his audience that certain players are not jazz players.
Listening to Locke I knew Jazz were not taking Chris Paul. The Morris Twins were never an option. And Dennis Schoeder wasn't really considered.
I haven't listened much yet this year. But I should probably start.
But, Locke probably gets a little bit of inside info because he can talk to the Jazz staff.
Locke is smart, he knows that everything he says or tweets is probably hitting the computer/phone of his equivalent in every organization.
He would like to be quiet, but he also wants to demonstrate his knowledge (we all do)
I think Locke sometimes tries to nudge the conversation surrounding players one way or another, for his purposes, not the Jazz.
One area Locke will tell you about that you can't get anywhere else is character. The Jazz are looking at these potential picks lives and history, if they are bad, or have surrounded themselves with bad people the Jazz avoid them. All the teams and the league look into these players lives, but while they league publishes the draft picks handwiths and body mass index, they say next ot nothing about character. If there are red flags the NBA and NBA media are very discrete about that type of information. Locke doesn't even make a big deal of it, but he subtlety informs his audience that certain players are not jazz players.
Listening to Locke I knew Jazz were not taking Chris Paul. The Morris Twins were never an option. And Dennis Schoeder wasn't really considered.
I haven't listened much yet this year. But I should probably start.
Last edited:
He does have a point though. It is hard to find players who struggled their first 2 years and exploded in their JR/SR who are succesful in the NBA (it's hard to find them period). The ones you do find are complete flops.
Small sample size, so probably doesn't mean anything though.
Small sample size, so probably doesn't mean anything though.
What are the examples you've found? I posted some examples of seniors(bigs only) going into the league a week ago, but didn't look for them being bad in the first two years.
The success stories I found were Hibbert, Draymond Green and David Lee. The rest were for the the most part role players at best.
Even those guys where getting good minutes and putting up stats their SO years though. They weren't flat out dominating, but they were doing pretty good.