We are gonna win the lottery (official thread)

[b_line]

No. They let him walk to make the GS trade and to tank for a better pick. Still unclear whether Hood + next year's GS pick + the difference between Dante and a mid 1st is better than Millsap, although that's probably not the popular opinion here; Jazzfanz posters still generally grossly underrate Millsap.

The Jazz are still in need of talent. Jettisoning talent primarily to make space for another player would be a mistake. If you can make a deal that improves the roster, great. No need to force a deal.

I really like Lindsey. But I think he underestimated Millsap by a fair bit. This team with Millsap would be pretty special.

 

[b_line]

Debatable. I'm on the fence about whether the Jazz would be better off with Millsap and whatever player they would have drafted in place of Dante instead of Hood, Exum and next year's GS pick (and a couple second rounders).

This is a really good way to look at it.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Debatable. I'm on the fence about whether the Jazz would be better off with Millsap and whatever player they would have drafted in place of Dante instead of Hood, Exum and next year's GS pick (and a couple second rounders).

I dont see how we couldnt both sign Millsap and do the GS trade. Would we not have the cap room to make the deal?

 

[GVC]

I dont see how we couldnt both sign Millsap and do the GS trade. Would we not have the cap room to make the deal?

Didn't have the cap space. It was one or the other.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Didn't have the cap space. It was one or the other.

Could we not have signed Millsap after the trade to go into the LT?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/utah-jazz/cap/2013/

Seems like we were 14 million below the LT cap and Millsap was signed for 10,000,000 IIRC. What am I missing? You are usually pretty good with cap stuff so I trust you, but just curious.

 

[GVC]

Could we not have signed Millsap after the trade to go into the LT?

1. The Jazz were nowhere near the LT. Even if they could have re-signed Millsap AND made the trade, they would have been under the LT.

2. Free agents count against the cap -- i.e., they have a cap hold -- until they're either re-signed, signed by another team or renounced. With Millsap's cap hold, the Jazz didn't have enough space below the cap to make the trade. They had to renounce Millsap and Jefferson in order to make the GS trade.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/utah-jazz/cap/2013/

Seems like we were 14 million below the LT cap and Millsap was signed for 10,000,000 IIRC. What am I missing? You are usually pretty good with cap stuff so I trust you, but just curious.

Because the Jazz didn't send salary out in the trade, they had to be able to absorb the incoming contracts below the cap. The Luxury tax line is irrelevant here. Millsap's cap hold (and Jefferson's) plus the GS contracts would have put Utah above the cap (again, they would have been below the LT, but that's irrelevant).

 

[GVC]

Cy, the whole point of cap holds is to keep teams from signing a bunch of other players up to the cap when they have their own free agents, and then re-signing their own players. You can't do that. You can only sign other teams' players if you have cap space after accounting for cap holds. Without this rule, large market teams would be stacked every year.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

1. The Jazz were nowhere near the LT. Even if they could have re-signed Millsap AND made the trade, they would have been under the LT.

2. Free agents count against the cap -- i.e., they have a cap hold -- until they're either re-signed, signed by another team or renounced. With Millsap's cap hold, the Jazz didn't have enough space below the cap to make the trade. They had to renounce Millsap and Jefferson in order to make the GS trade.

Because the Jazz didn't send salary out in the trade, they had to be able to absorb the incoming contracts below the cap. The Luxury tax line is irrelevant here. Millsap's cap hold (and Jefferson's) plus the GS contracts would have put Utah above the cap (again, they would have been below the LT, but that's irrelevant).

Didnt we trade Randy Foye in the trade?

 

[GVC]

Didnt we trade Randy Foye in the trade?

1. Foye's salary was not nearly enough for salary matching purposes (which was the point in me saying they didn't send out salary). The trade was a HUGE salary dump for GS.

2. Still didn't create enough cap space for Jefferson, Biedrins, Rush and Millsap's cap hold. The Jazz were just about at the cap after the trade.

 

[The Midnight]

And, just in case anyone wants more precise lottery odds for the Jazz:

1st pick: 0.7%
2nd pick: 0.8302155843310%
3rd pick: 1.0099233236422%
12th pick: 93.5400222325362%
13th pick: 3.8981563081557%
14th pick: 0.0216825513350%

Top 2 pick: 1.5302155843310%
Top 3 Pick: 2.5401389079732%

I'd be happy with the 12th pick with those odds... let's just hope we don't get nudged back to 13th is all I'm worried about.

 

[GVC]

This is a really good way to look at it.

You could also amend it to include Carroll: Millsap, Carroll and a 2014 mid-1st round pick or Hood, Exum and the 2017 GS pick.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

1. Foye's salary was not nearly enough for salary matching purposes (which was the point in me saying they didn't send out salary). The trade was a HUGE salary dump for GS.

2. Still didn't create enough cap space for Jefferson, Biedrins, Rush and Millsap's cap hold. The Jazz were just about at the cap after the trade.

If the Jazz did re-sign Millsap, how much salary could we have absorbed from the Warriors?

 

[GVC]

If the Jazz did re-sign Millsap, how much salary could we have absorbed from the Warriors?

Not enough to create the cap space needed for GS to sign Iggy, which was the whole point of the trade. Subtract whatever Millsap's cap hold was -- without looking, I'd guess it was in the $8-10mil range.

Again, it was one or the other: some combination of Millsap, Jefferson and Carroll or the two GS picks and tanking.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Well my point is: Just because Lyles is good doesnt mean you have to get rid of Favors and letting Millsap walk in free agency was a giant *** blunder.

Only with hindsight 20/20 goggles on. DL has the job of projecting players 3-5 years out. Kanter was coming off a very strong 2nd season and there were plenty of threads about how him getting the max was inevitable. There is also the question would Favors sign an extension with Millsap as a clear cut starter. At the time I viewed it as a "questionable" move, and the majority was viewing it as a very good move to send Mr. Undersized on his way. GVC is the only member at the time I clearly remember denouncing the move, there were probably a few others.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Not enough to create the cap space needed for GS to sign Iggy, which was the whole point of the trade. Subtract whatever Millsap's cap hold was -- without looking, I'd guess it was in the $8-10mil range.

Again, it was one or the other: some combination of Millsap, Jefferson, Carroll and Marvin or the two GS picks and tanking.

Yeah, just wondering. I think we were the only team who could absorb all that cap at once IIRC, but I bet the Warriors would have tried to dump cap in separate trades. Just wondering what we could have gotten for w/e cap space we could have absorbed and retained Millsap.

It's crazy to think that trade is one of the major reasons Golden State became a NBA champion and went on to have the best record ever.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Only with hindsight 20/20 goggles on. DL has the job of projecting players 3-5 years out. Kanter was coming off a very strong 2nd season and there were plenty of threads about how him getting the max was inevitable. There is also the question would Favors sign an extension with Millsap as a clear cut starter. At the time I viewed it as a "questionable" move, and the majority was viewing it as a very good move to send Mr. Undersized on his way. GVC is the only member at the time I clearly remember denouncing the move, there were probably a few others.

I always disliked Kanter and thought he sucked.

 

[GVC]

You could also amend it to include Carroll: Millsap, Carroll and a 2014 mid-1st round pick or Hood, Exum and the 2017 GS pick.

Quoting myself...

This is actually incorrect. The Jazz still had the cap MLE after the trade, which they could have used to sign Carroll, assuming DMC was willing to sign for the same amount in Utah as he accepted in Atlanta. Cap MLE was $2.652mil for 2013-14; Carroll made $2.56mil in Atlanta that season.

 

[GVC]

Only with hindsight 20/20 goggles on. DL has the job of projecting players 3-5 years out. Kanter was coming off a very strong 2nd season and there were plenty of threads about how him getting the max was inevitable. There is also the question would Favors sign an extension with Millsap as a clear cut starter. At the time I viewed it as a "questionable" move, and the majority was viewing it as a very good move to send Mr. Undersized on his way. GVC is the only member at the time I clearly remember denouncing the move, there were probably a few others.

I don't think I clearly denounced the move, although I could be wrong. You can, and could, make a reasonable argument either way. The biggest problem for me is that DL/Jazz ownership didn't act a year earlier. 2012/13 was a completely wasted season.

edit: Might be better to start a new thread for full blown DL evaluation.

 

[ncoloradojazz]

I always disliked Kanter and thought he sucked.

Finally agree with you on something..