♪alt13
Well-Known Member
This is thee expected points per shot from each area of the court.
Restricted Area – 1.183
In The Paint (Non-RA) – 0.793
Mid-Range – 0.788
Corner 3 – 1.157
Above The Break 3 – 1.048
https://nyloncalculus.com/2014/08/04/updating-expected-points-per-shot/
In the Paint and Mid-Range shots give the team markedly fewer points per shot. This realization has lead to the mid-range jump shot being dubbed the worst shot in basketball(The mailman rolls his eyes). Some people would say that the game is evolving into an outside shooters game while others may think that it's devolving into a 3 point shooting contest. In 2016 I'm somewhere between these 2 opinions.
In thinking about a possible solution I choose to focus on the Mid-range. My assumption is that in the paint shots will continue to be common as players try to get to the restricted area. I also think that the In the paint points result in more trips to the FT line thus providing another incentive to attempt them. The goal then becomes trying to increase the pps in the mid-range so that we can decrease the disparity between taking a mid-range jumpshot rather than taking one from somewhere else on the floor.
This is what I came up with. The area outside of the paint but inside of the 3 point line would become known as "the cue". When a team made a shot from the cue a light would be activated that would signal that the next shot the team makes from that area would be worth 3 instead of 2 points. This would increase the pps in this area from 0.788 to aprox. 0.910(0.919 is a sixth increase .901 is a seventh, the actual increase in pps should fall somewhere between that).
PPS then looks like this
Restricted Area – 1.183
In The Paint (Non-RA) – 0.793
Mid-Range – 0.910
Corner 3 – 1.157
Above The Break 3 – 1.048
Beyond just increasing the pps from mid-range, the "cue" could add an interesting dynamic to the game especially near the end of the 4th.
Whachya think?
