How much should we be talking about Donovan?

[Dali]

I think if we adjust and make him a passer on those drives we have to put more shooters on the floor with him. Most of his drives he has Favs in the corner... Rudy in the dunkers spot or rolling... the only guy you can't help off of and recover to is Joe and he doesn't have the quickest release so you might still be able to reach in and recover.

It will be curious to see if we make changes by the deadline. I've seen enough to know that the current starting lineup works but is limited... ready for a changeup but it takes two to tango on a trade and Favs/Ricky are both solid... so can't make a move from solid to just bad to say "see we changed things". If DM can't make the reads with more space or can't be more effecient with more creation on the floor then you really have to evaluate what that means for our team/roster construction long term.

I don't mind the 1 on 1 for Donovan if the floor is spaced. It's the 1v3 and sometimes even hi surrounded by four players, and then jacks up an ill-advised shot is what frustrates me. Both the corners are open. Kick it out. That's where he needs to have better awareness and decision making.

 

[Sandman822]

OK so I decided to take a deeper look into that graph since it seems kinda screwy. I incorrectly called it points per possession in my explanation post, it's points per shot which is defined as points off 2PA/3PA divided by total FGA (points per possession includes FTs and TOs but PPS doesn't)

Mitchell has scored 577 total points off of shots so far this season, and has attempted 627. 577/627 = 0.92 points per shot which is bad.

Rubio has scored 381 total points off of shots so far this season, and has attempted 422. 381/422 = 0.9 points per shot which is also bad.

So basically the Jazz' top two guys are not even close to sniffing 1.0 points per shot while every other team in the league has a top duo that can do it. That's how bad they've been efficiency wise, and while stat ignores their FTs and TOs I don't think their PPP would be all that much better to be honest.

 

[Sandman822]

Few other players to compare to

Gobert has a PPS of 1.32 which is elite
Favs has a PPS of 1.32 as well which is elite
Ingles has a PPS of 1.09 which is good
Exum has a PPS of 0.93 which is bad
Crowder has a PPS of 1.06 which is alright

basically just reconfirming what most of us already knew, the Jazz' guard play has been bad this year scoring wise and the forwards and bigs are picking up the slack.

 

[fishonjazz]

That most teams have a red column for their top 2 shot takers and a blue column for everything else, and the higher the column is the more efficient that group is. Teams with a higher red column than blue mean that the top 2 guys are more efficient than the rest of their team, vice versa if the blue column is higher.

Jazz are the only team to not even have a red column because our top two shot takers (Mitchell/Rubio) have been so bad this season they don't even break 1 PPP since that's the lowest mark on the vertical scale, while the rest of the Jazz are at 1.17/1.18 points per shot.

edit: also the Jazz' blue column is the 2nd highest in the entire league only behind the Warriors, so the rest of the team is performing very well offensively relative to the other teams blue columns

Oh I see. Thanks

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

OK so I decided to take a deeper look into that graph since it seems kinda screwy. I incorrectly called it points per possession in my explanation post, it's points per shot which is defined as points off 2PA/3PA divided by total FGA (points per possession includes FTs and TOs but PPS doesn't)

Mitchell has scored 577 total points off of shots so far this season, and has attempted 627. 577/627 = 0.92 points per shot which is bad.

Rubio has scored 381 total points off of shots so far this season, and has attempted 422. 381/422 = 0.9 points per shot which is also bad.

So basically the Jazz' top two guys are not even close to sniffing 1.0 points per shot while every other team in the league has a top duo that can do it. That's how bad they've been efficiency wise, and while stat ignores their FTs and TOs I don't think their PPP would be all that much better to be honest.

I don't think we should put a ton of faith in stats that don't include FTs... FT attempts can make an inefficient scorer a good scorer. Its the most efficient "shot" outside of dunks. Dante shoots 4.8 FTs per 36 to Ricky's 3.4 (I'm guessing about 15-20% of those are techs too). Not saying we need to swap roles, but it is one of the clear advantages Dante has over Ricky.

Agree with the premise though... the guys who shoot a lot don't make a lot. On our team even more so.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Few other players to compare to

Gobert has a PPS of 1.32 which is elite
Favs has a PPS of 1.32 as well which is elite
Ingles has a PPS of 1.09 which is good
Exum has a PPS of 0.93 which is bad
Crowder has a PPS of 1.06 which is alright

basically just reconfirming what most of us already knew, the Jazz' guard play has been bad this year scoring wise and the forwards and bigs are picking up the slack.

It's part of the reason I think we could bring in a semi-efficient guard (like when I suggested Tim Hardaway... I'm off that particular player now doe) and still see a noticeable uptick in offense.

 

[Sandman822]

I don't think we should put a ton of faith in stats that don't include FTs... FT attempts can make an inefficient scorer a good scorer. Its the most efficient "shot" outside of dunks. Dante shoots 4.8 FTs per 36 to Ricky's 3.4 (I'm guessing about 15-20% of those are techs too). Not saying we need to swap roles, but it is one of the clear advantages Dante has over Ricky.

Agree with the premise though... the guys who shoot a lot don't make a lot. On our team even more so.

I had a really hard time finding any PPP data which is weird, but using this formula here if it's accurate it would look something like

683 / (627 - 20 + 91 + (0.44 x 134)) = 0.9022 PPP for Mitchell

worth noting though that unless something has changed in the last few years, assists aren't considered to be possessions since a possession is when that player ends the team's possession on the offensive end through a shot, a TO, or a foul.

 

[NAOS]

To speak to your reads thing... he misses guys on the perimeter and gets too far in the paint and pukes up a shot or the ball too often. I agree it is likely a lot of DM, but not completely.

If there was another creator or more space I think maybe he forces less. I think he works it out... the spot up shooting at very least should creep up to where it was last year.

Totally agree.

 

[NAOS]

Few other players to compare to

Gobert has a PPS of 1.32 which is elite
Favs has a PPS of 1.32 as well which is elite
Ingles has a PPS of 1.09 which is good
Exum has a PPS of 0.93 which is bad
Crowder has a PPS of 1.06 which is alright

basically just reconfirming what most of us already knew, the Jazz' guard play has been bad this year scoring wise and the forwards and bigs are picking up the slack.

Thanks for this. What did your handle used to be? I missed the change to Sandman.

 

[Sandman822]

Thanks for this. What did your handle used to be? I missed the change to Sandman.

Always been Sandman, I just never really posted here much until this year.

I found out about Jazzfanz through @dipship31 on the IGN basketball board years ago since he was the only Jazz fan there when Utah got Exum and Ingles.

 

[carolinajazz]

Given how much attention Mitchell's drives get, and how high his usage is, he should be averaging 6+ assists per game. If he drove with the idea that he either gets a good shot or passes it to an open man, his game would be improve a lot, and so would the Jazz' prospects as a team. Smashing into a wall of defenders and throwing a prayer, or worse, lazily taking a contested off the dribble 3 with 20 seconds left on the clock (like he's Steph Curry or some ****), gets us nowhere.

Well, I suspect the coaches are working with him on those tendencies.....but as time goes on and we don't see much, if any, improvement in his shot selection, we are going to have to draw the sad conclusion that Mitchell is a bonafide, uncoachable, schoolyard hip-hopper that we are either stuck with or can possibly trade for someone who is more fundamentally sound and coachable!

 

[Dali]

Well, I suspect the coaches are working with him on those tendencies.....but as time goes on and we don't see much, if any, improvement in his shot selection, we are going to have to draw the sad conclusion that Mitchell is a bonafide, uncoachable, schoolyard hip-hopper that we are either stuck with or can possibly trade for someone who is more fundamentally sound and coachable!

Which would be a total 180 from the noise of last year, which was that he listened to the coaches very tightly and then he would execute what they tought him right the next game.

It makes me think that Quin is okay with those terrible shots in traffic that Mitchell throws up.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Which would be a total 180 from the noise of last year, which was that he listened to the coaches very tightly and then he would execute what they tought him right the next game.

It makes me think that Quin is okay with those terrible shots in traffic that Mitchell throws up.

This... they’ve told him to be aggressive. I think our disdain for the 15-20 footer also hurts us. His worst games come against drop the big teams like Memphis, Philly, and Portland. I wonder if he shot the 15-18 footer if it’d be better and maybe less predictable. He seems solid in that range.

I wonder what they’ve told him on those floaters and non-paint midrange... I’d be fine with those shots if we were getting offensive rebounds or free throws out of it. I wonder what it’d look like if they told him drive and kick it out if you don’t have the somewhat clean look at the rim or a solid high pass opportunity.

IDK what to make of his season thus far.

 

[Sandman822]

I'm more concerned about Mitchell shooting 32% on wide open 3s (defender further than 6ft away) than I am about his questionable shots where he drives into 2 or more defenders and forces up a shot to be honest.

 

[Dali]

Well I mean, the whole NBA knows his tendency when driving to the rim so opposing teams pack the paint. I wouldn’t have thought he would need coaching to dish it out. This is due to the rockets game 2, where he had 15 points 11 assist. He picked them apart in that game so I thought his IQ was higher.

Soon as he starts dishing out it will give the opposing team potentially two choices to make, instead of one.

 

[Alfalfa]

I'm more concerned about Mitchell shooting 32% on wide open 3s (defender further than 6ft away) than I am about his questionable shots where he drives into 2 or more defenders and forces up a shot to be honest.

That's not as concerning. He's not a very good 3 point shooter. He'll have to work on improving that throughout his career. The other issues are more easily adjustable.

 

[Sandman822]

That's not as concerning. He's not a very good 3 point shooter. He'll have to work on improving that throughout his career. The other issues are more easily adjustable.

That's why I'm concerned though. The offense needs him to take a lot and he is shooting close to 7 threes a game this season while shooting 29.1% from there which is frankly awful for the volume he's shooting them on. He's getting 2.5 wide open looks a game from deep and is only shooting 32.1%, and unlike last year where the defenders guarding his closer didn't completely tank his 3pt% (last year he was 35.1% on wide open looks, 34.5% on open looks, and 32.3% on tight looks from deep, this year he's 32.1% on the wide open looks, 30.6% on open looks, and an awful 16.1% on tight looks. The significant drop in efficiency is mainly from catch and shoot situations, where he went from 40.6% in his rookie year from deep (which is great) to 29.9% on catch and shoots this year.

The other issues are easily adjustable which is why I'm not as concerned by them as I am by his 3pt shot disappearing. It was never a great shot but 34% in his rookie season is a very significant improvement over his current 29.1% figure, and if the Jazz are willing to wait through his struggles attacking the paint then he really needs to be cashing in on more of those open looks from deep he is getting.

edit: I should note that I'm talking almost exclusively about Mitchell as a scorer with my concerns. I've noted plenty of times previously that Mitchell's inability to run the point or playmake consistently for others is my #1 concern with him overall.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

That's why I'm concerned though. The offense needs him to take a lot and he is shooting close to 7 threes a game this season while shooting 29.1% from there which is frankly awful for the volume he's shooting them on. He's getting 2.5 wide open looks a game from deep and is only shooting 32.1%, and unlike last year where the defenders guarding his closer didn't completely tank his 3pt% (last year he was 35.1% on wide open looks, 34.5% on open looks, and 32.3% on tight looks from deep, this year he's 32.1% on the wide open looks, 30.6% on open looks, and an awful 16.1% on tight looks. The significant drop in efficiency is mainly from catch and shoot situations, where he went from 40.6% in his rookie year from deep (which is great) to 29.9% on catch and shoots this year.

The other issues are easily adjustable which is why I'm not as concerned by them as I am by his 3pt shot disappearing. It was never a great shot but 34% in his rookie season is a very significant improvement over his current 29.1% figure, and if the Jazz are willing to wait through his struggles attacking the paint then he really needs to be cashing in on more of those open looks from deep he is getting.

edit: I should note that I'm talking almost exclusively about Mitchell as a scorer with my concerns. I've noted plenty of times previously that Mitchell's inability to run the point or playmake consistently for others is my #1 concern with him overall.

I think open three point shooting can swing in a small sample. I trust his form and his FT shooting is solid. I think the open spot up shooting will move closer to the 40% he was last year... or high 30s.

His scoring ceiling will be dictated by his ability to develop the off the dribble three. He can get it whenever he wants right now and if defenses have to take it away he will be able to punish them.

If he got to the line a bit more his efficiency would improve and he’d be less susceptible to the big swings.

If his playmaking improves he along with those things he’d be an mvp candidate type... if he could be the pg we need it opens up what we can put around him.

Lots of ifs but I don’t think they are completely unreachable. Unlikely to figure out all three but that’s the type of thing that would need to happen for us to get to championship level... unless we land another all star caliber player.

 

[str8line]

That's why I'm concerned though. The offense needs him to take a lot and he is shooting close to 7 threes a game this season while shooting 29.1% from there which is frankly awful for the volume he's shooting them on. He's getting 2.5 wide open looks a game from deep and is only shooting 32.1%, and unlike last year where the defenders guarding his closer didn't completely tank his 3pt% (last year he was 35.1% on wide open looks, 34.5% on open looks, and 32.3% on tight looks from deep, this year he's 32.1% on the wide open looks, 30.6% on open looks, and an awful 16.1% on tight looks. The significant drop in efficiency is mainly from catch and shoot situations, where he went from 40.6% in his rookie year from deep (which is great) to 29.9% on catch and shoots this year.

The other issues are easily adjustable which is why I'm not as concerned by them as I am by his 3pt shot disappearing. It was never a great shot but 34% in his rookie season is a very significant improvement over his current 29.1% figure, and if the Jazz are willing to wait through his struggles attacking the paint then he really needs to be cashing in on more of those open looks from deep he is getting.

edit: I should note that I'm talking almost exclusively about Mitchell as a scorer with my concerns. I've noted plenty of times previously that Mitchell's inability to run the point or playmake consistently for others is my #1 concern with him overall.

His tight looks 3 pt percentage went from 32.3% to 16.1%? That must be because last year he had a consistent elevation to his shot. Maybe it's that he can't rise like he could last year.

 

[Jazz]

I think open three point shooting can swing in a small sample. I trust his form and his FT shooting is solid. I think the open spot up shooting will move closer to the 40% he was last year... or high 30s.

His scoring ceiling will be dictated by his ability to develop the off the dribble three. He can get it whenever he wants right now and if defenses have to take it away he will be able to punish them.

If he got to the line a bit more his efficiency would improve and he’d be less susceptible to the big swings.

If his playmaking improves he along with those things he’d be an mvp candidate type... if he could be the pg we need it opens up what we can put around him.

Lots of ifs but I don’t think they are completely unreachable. Unlikely to figure out all three but that’s the type of thing that would need to happen for us to get to championship level... unless we land another all star caliber player.

He's just not that good