Devin Harris on Al Jefferson: Jazz fans will be surprised if they see him

[billyshelby]

I'm showing that even during his BEST stretch, he was worse than a lot more than 5 players over their whole season. That's an extremely strong statement. If you don't recognize that, you're a fool. Crunching the numbers for that exact time period for all those players would be extremely time consuming, and since, as usual, you're not willing to bring anything to the table, this will have to suffice (unless you can collect some data). The truth is that since this is true, it's almost a certainty that my weaker assertion is also true, and even more of a certainty that yours is ridiculously false.

If those were the players' averages for the whole season, they probably hovered around those averages month to month. It would be highly improbably that for those particular two months 9 of the listed players shot considerably worse than their season averages. Further, it would be just as likely that some players below that number for the season shot better during that stretch. Once you also include the players I omitted for various reasons, the question of whether you're right is downright ludicrous. You're wrong.

How do those numbers prove they were better than Al during that 2 month stretch? Al's final numbers were obviously much lower than those 2 months. The way you distort arguments doesn't fool anyone. You can figure Al's approximate numbers just based on his 54% FG average. They rank high on that list.

 

[GVC]

I calculated Al's TS% for the two month period. That's what the .565 number is. That list of players all did better than that on the whole season. Again, it's highly unlikely that at least 9 of those players, as well as all the players not on that list, were magically way worse during February and March. This shouldn't be too hard to understand.

Can you not read? Wow.

Is it safe to assume you're not going to address all the misrepresentations and flat out lies you've made about my posts in this thread?

Is it safe to assume that you're not going to look at any of the data yourself?

 

[billyshelby]

I calculated Al's TS% for the two month period. That's what the .565 number is. That list of players all did better than that on the whole season. Again, it's highly unlikely (I can't imagine there's more than a 1% chance) that at least 9 of those players, as well as all the players not on that list, were magically way worse during February and March. This shouldn't be too hard to understand.

Can you not read? Wow.

Is it safe to assume you're not going to address all the misrepresentations and flat out lies you've made about my posts in this thread?

Is it safe to assume that you're not going to look at any of the data yourself?

I'm not going to get lost in TS% arguments as the true worth of a player as I've said many times over and over. It's all you ever talk about like it's the only thing that matters. It's very rare a player can average 24 and 11 for any stretch, much less 2 months. Al has already done that in a shortened season on the TWolves. The guy Al was for 2 months last season is a rare player. But as I've said many times, you wouldn't know that if all you saw were boxscores. You're still trying to prove Al is bad based on your own limited idea that certain stats tell the whole worth of a player. Millsap, for example, couldn't average 24 and 11 if you told him to shoot every time he had the ball. He doesn't have the skill to do that.

 

[Deleted member 848]

 

[Deleted member 848]

Last I checked, a win in November is worth the same as a win in March.

Lol. Its a good thing you admitted this was a foolish thing to say afterwards.

Having crunched the numbers for stats against the top 4 Western Conference teams (since I know you only make baseless assertions), he scored at league average efficiency against the top 4 Western Conference teams last season, roughly in line with his post-all-star game numbers.

Its funny how you were giving me absolute hell a couple of weeks ago for not providing "proper" data by being .06 percent off, yet you choose the most absurd sample size of "elite teams" that Al Jefferson matched up against. So much for "intellectual honesty".

PS: as was mentioned in the prior post, not many players in the NBA can average 24/11 at 56.6%, ESPECIALLY given the manner in which Al gets these shots off, as well as the absurd supporting cast/ amount of injuries the team sustained during that time frame. If Al played like that all season, it'd be hard to not argue that he's easily a top 10 PF/C in the league, debatable as top 5. As far as the true shooting goes, I think it will always be a statistic that will work against Al Jefferson, due to his reluctancy to draw fouls, as well as his preference of scoring unassisted baskets as opposed to getting them off of pick and rolls, and so on. However, his ability to basically be a solo-scoring machine while possessing a low turnover rate is quite the unique talent, and can prove seriously beneficial in games where a team is slumping. I feel like if Al is paired up with a Power Forward that averages a relatively high FG% as well as being a decent defender, the man could really excel, and seriously contribute to a contending team.

However, as of now, we have a centre that has is known for lack-lustre defense, recent woes in terms of rebounding, a poor on-court awareness that contributes his lower assist totals and relatively inefficient shooting for such a prolific offensive centre. Despite this, he has shown a surprisingly good blocking ability, improvement in terms of assisting on the offensive end (there were several games where Al would pass it out of a double team to Hayward specifically; perhaps Al's reluctancy to pass out of double teams were because he'd look out to the perimeter and see Watson, Bell, and CJ (....shudder)). I don't expect him to ever be Boris Diaw or an Andrei Kirilenko in terms of interior passing around the paint, but his trending openness to pass out of double teams to players like Hayward is all really Id like to see from the guy. Couple this with hopefully a desire for him to become more familiar with such a highly structured offense, and hopefully these report of him working on agility contribute to him to not be so lead-footed on the defensive end, and we might have something here.

Ideally Id love 18/11/2 and much better defense off of rotations and switches. However, I would still be content with 21/10/2 and half-decent defending, which to me seems like a likely estimate for whenever next season is.

 

[sepanol]

I'm not going to get lost in TS% arguments as the true worth of a player as I've said many times over and over. It's all you ever talk about like it's the only thing that matters. It's very rare a player can average 24 and 11 for any stretch, much less 2 months. Al has already done that in a shortened season on the TWolves. The guy Al was for 2 months last season is a rare player. But as I've said many times, you wouldn't know that if all you saw were boxscores. You're still trying to prove Al is bad based on your own limited idea that certain stats tell the whole worth of a player. Millsap, for example, couldn't average 24 and 11 if you told him to shoot every time he had the ball. He doesn't have the skill to do that.

You actually started these statistical arguments by imposing that 24 11 54% are magical numbers which aren't (if not for the whole season). If you are dreaming Big Al is one of the elite big man in this league, wake up already because he is not. He may be slightly better player than Millsap but obviously he isn't worth that much considering his salary.

Millsap is taking many more jump shots and he is still more efficient. Millsap is doing his best with his undersized body because he knows how to play this game, but Big Al, he can't fulfill his potential for 7 years. And after his 7th year, i dont know many players who makes a great leap and become a completely different player.

 

[Brown Notes]

A few questions,

Is freaking harris and jefferson our vets to lead the team here ? Hayward would be a much better leader even right now than the sum of those two.

Obviously you value youth over experience. The clear answer is of course yes, Harris and Jefferson are clearly better players and NBA leaders to this point over guys like Hayward(Who I love BTW). You also are glossing over the point I made regarding rooks needing time to get their bodies and game into NBA shape.

No one will complain about Ty Corbin if we dont make it to playoffs with bunch of young players.

Wrong. Everybody will complain about a losing season. This is Utah. FFS guy, nobody is going to just jolly about waiting for the chrysalis. In the meantime Corbin will of course be under an extreme amount of fire. This is not an environment with which to create a winning culture.

GSW pick isnt guaranteed to be on this year, its top 8 protected. So the better pick we get the better assets we have(We can use two lottery picks in a good trade and get a better veteran as well). Otherwise, why Oklahoma didnt say, well we got Durant and Westbrook, lets get some vets and make it to playoffs, they just waited the right players, the right time and they got Harden the next year as a very good complemantary piece.

There you go assuming high picks = better team. The reality is that there is already borderline too much youth on the team as it is. When you try to develop too many players at the same time a lot of them will end up succeeding on other teams. If you got your wish the chances of Kanter actually being developed and succeeding for the Utah Jazz will decrease.


Are you mixing Harris and Jefferson with Duncan and Nash or what? So they are gonna stay and lead our team? To what? Getting our *** kicked in the first round ? or not even making to playoffs?

Again you are deliberately confusing yourself. No I don't confuse AJ with Duncan. I do understand the difference between an established veteran and a raw rookie. The established players will provide the Head Coach with the ability to establish and offensive and defensive identity. Rookies do not do that.

You should come with stronger arguments instead of sticking your mind up to Kanter vs Jefferson discussion and trying to convince me with your shallow ideas.

Basically nonsense.

Btw Kanter is 3rd pick, not 33rd. So he has to start (in normal conditions like except being loaded with bunch of big guys) and if he doesnt perform well, he has to fight to earn his spot back. He already MUST have with lots of credit in that sense. But guys like you will probably start bitching about him from the first min, ohhh he got rejected, he sucks, he is not athletic at all, Jefferson is better, he scored 35 points avg in the sunday games we played last year.... blablabla

And here it is again. Kanter Kanter Kanter. YOU ARE WRONG. Kanter is not going to be a great player in his first year, maybe not even 2. Believe me, we all get that you love your guy. It is great that a Turkish man was drafted so high. Good for you. I like your country too. I hope that Turkey continues to be an example of success. But Kanter is going to take 2-4 years in the NBA to get close to his potential. In the meantime the Jazz have a player who is not only better right now but has a great attitude and will in all likelihood be willing to teach the young man things he has never seen.

I really don't mind you getting excited about your player. Just stop it with trying to put him in an unrealistic light.

 

[sepanol]

Everyone who thinks Big Al is really an amazing player that every coach would like to see in his team or who could be the first, even second option in a contender, please wake up from your dream. And dont hide behind unnecessary "you are a Kanter homer" statements. We gotta face the truth here, we didn't have a very good post player in the last couple of years (i dont know before 5 years ago how was it). Boozer was overrated and right now he isnt overrated because everyone saw how he sucks after he went to a system which isn't trying to make him as efficient as possible like we did. Memo is a good big man with different skills but he isn't good enough as well. Millsap is a perfect team player and i would love to see him in this team until end of his career, but he can't be the starting PF in a contender. Jefferson is a completely different story. He has some skills, so you can't say he is bad but he got paid a lot more than what he deserves and his defense completely sucks. (Dont come up with blocking stats then it means Javale McGee and Josh Smith are good defenders too but they are not)

At least right now, even if we arent sure with anything yet, we have Favors and Kanter, who are 3rd picks for the last years (as we never had a top pick big man for a long long time). Instead of getting stuck with players who proved they aren't franchise players, lets better support the young players who has that potential.

I don't tell this because i am a homer of Kanter, but believe or not, right now he is the most key player in the team to decide if we are gonna be a contender in future or not. We have lots of expectations from Hayward but he isn't a Kobe we know that, thats why we need two good players on the back court to play together with him. Favors has amazing potential but we know that he isn't a born scorer. Here it makes Kanter the first scoring option in the future, and you can't just go into the court and dominate everyone by scoring 30 night in and night out when you are a 19 yrs old kid who didn't play professional ball for the last 2 years. So that means this guy deserves some support and patience. I dont expect anyone to treat him like he is gonna be next Malone but even the fact that he is the 3rd pick is enough to show that he deserves some credit.

You shouldn't give Kanter more support than he deserves, but at least you shouldn't be skeptical when someone from Turkey backs him up, because i am sure, if Derrick Williams was drafted, he wouldn't have had the need of any international supporters.

 

[sepanol]

And here it is again. Kanter Kanter Kanter. YOU ARE WRONG. Kanter is not going to be a great player in his first year, maybe not even 2. Believe me, we all get that you love your guy. It is great that a Turkish man was drafted so high. Good for you. I like your country too. I hope that Turkey continues to be an example of success. But Kanter is going to take 2-4 years in the NBA to get close to his potential. In the meantime the Jazz have a player who is not only better right now but has a great attitude and will in all likelihood be willing to teach the young man things he has never seen.

I really don't mind you getting excited about your player. Just stop it with trying to put him in an unrealistic light.

I never told he is gonna come and dominate maybe you don't pay attention to my posts, i don't think you would have a comprehension problem since it is your main language. ( I dont think Valanciunas will be so different as well,as i remember you were so high on him)

And i dont think i put Kanter on unrealistic lights, just im telling, along with Favors and Hayward, he is the future of this team.
It is ridiculous how high you are on Harris and Jefferson, because for me, they are already proven they aren't winners. At best Harris can be a good backup in a good team from now on, and Jefferson can be a starting PF in a really bad team. (Because his ego is too high to accept a back up role even in Lakers)

I dont say high picks always make a good team, but the higher pick you have means you have a better asset at least at the day of the draft, so you can use it somehow.

And about Ty Corbin thing, i will take that as you know Utah better than me, but Utah isn't Lakers, we didn't have a single championship, so it is ridiculous if they are gonna boo him just because he didn't make miracles with youngsters in his first full year of coaching.

I am not trying to contend you all the time, but obviously, we have completely different ideas.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Well, I guess I agree with Alec, I'll be surprised if/when I see Al .. I'm to the point I'll be surprised to see any of them.

 

[GVC]

You're still trying to prove Al is bad based on your own limited idea that certain stats tell the whole worth of a player.

And, for about the 100th time in this thread, I'm not trying to "prove", or assert in any way, that Al is "bad" in this thread. Why you continue to lie about what I've said, I don't know. I've asked you to stop several times, but you refuse. You're a snake in the grass. A dim-witted ****ing weasel.

I was refuting some inaccurate statements Zerol made (not attacking Al). You can go back and read his and my posts in this thread, since it's obvious you've yet to do so.

 

[GVC]

Lol. Its a good thing you admitted this was a foolish thing to say afterwards.

Uh, I never admitted it was a foolish thing to say because it's not. A win in November is worth the same as a win in March.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Uh, I never admitted it was a foolish thing to say because it's not. A win in November is worth the same as a win in March.

GVC - Why can't you just admit when you're wrong, even when you're not? Why do you insist that other posters read what you posted before commenting and quoting you? I don't get it.

 

[Deleted member 848]

Uh, I never admitted it was a foolish thing to say because it's not. A win in November is worth the same as a win in March.

Well you admitted that it was overstated. To overstate something, in my mind, is considered a foolish thing to do in the heat of a discussion. Hence my inference.

 

[GVC]

Well you admitted that it was overstated. To overstate something, in my mind, is considered a foolish thing to do in the heat of a discussion. Hence my inference.

That's not what I said I overstated. It is absolutely true that wins in November are worth the same as wins in March.

If you can't keep up, why post? You only make yourself look foolish.

 

[Deleted member 848]

That's not what I said I overstated. It is absolutely true that wins in November are worth the same as wins in March.

If you can't keep up, why post? You only make yourself look foolish.

From what I gathered (correct me if I am mistaken) you initially claimed that games in March were meaningless, in comparison to ones in November, which you then apologized for by saying you overstated them. I simply assumed that this overstatement covered that post as well as your more recent posts, but I suppose you're now trying to argue the"absolute worth" of games, a concept I find hilarious. Was my assumption foolish? Yes, I suppose my reading comprehension failed me for a second. Still doesn't take away from the absurdity of you arguing that games in November are the same as ones in March.

In the stretch after March the 20th when we matched up against teams fighting for the playoffs (the Rockets on the 20th, the Grizzlies on the 21st, New Orleans on the 24th) when we were maybe a game behind strikes me as MUCH more important than playing Milwaukee on November 29th, for example. Sure the literal worth of winning either game is obviously the same, but had we won the games against Memphis, the Hornets and the Rockets back in March I feel like the season would have ended much differently.The Jazz were 36-33 before they lost that pivotal game in Houston, and then going on a subsequent 8 game losing streak. I don't know how one could argue against this.

You also never addressed the second part of my initial post addressed towards you.

 

[GVC]

Sure the literal worth of winning either game is obviously the same, but had we won the games against Memphis, the Hornets and the Rockets back in March I feel like the season would have ended much differently.The Jazz were 36-33 before they lost that pivotal game in Houston, and then going on a subsequent 8 game losing streak. I don't know how one could argue against this.

What if the Jazz had 8 more wins before their 8 game losing streak? 5 more wins? I don't know how anyone would need this repeated so many times to understand.

What do you want me to address in your first post? I don't recall saying anything that contradicts it in this thread.

 

[jope]

The thing i don't understand, is why no one is rooting for al and paul to learn how to play together effectively... if they could just figure it out, we have hands down a top 5 front court.

Maybe instead of deciding whos better, lets embrace the fact that we have 2 studs up front, with 2 potential studs on the bench fighting for their moment.

 

[GVC]

The biggest problem with the two of them playing together is that they're both much better offensive rebounders than defensive rebounders. As a result, the Jazz give up far too many offensive rebounds, while also not taking full advantage of the offensive rebounding abilities of Millsap and Jefferson (that is, only one of them can grab an offensive rebound on any particular possession). Further, it's tough for Paul to work with the ball from the high post and short corner (where he's pretty damn effective) with Big Al down low. Either you force Millsap to shoot long jumpers (which he did very effectively last season) or you have to pull Al out of the low post (which, like with Millsap, hurts his efficiency). As a 4/5 tandem, they don't complement each other well at all.

Now, if Paul's perimeter game continues to improve- which, given his past growth, seems pretty reasonable- there's a chance that the Jazz can get by with Paul splitting time at the 3 and 4 while Favors and Kanter grow. If both Favors and Kanter turn into 30+ minute players, there won;t be enough minutes to go around unless Millsap can play most of his minutes at the 3. The problem there is that Millsap's strengths won't be used to full advantage, as is the case with him playing beside Al in the frontcourt.

So we'll have to wait and see hoe Paul and Al come back, and how quickly Kanter and Favors can develop. There are enough minutes for all of them right now, so there's no rush to trade any of them.

 

[sepanol]

From what I gathered (correct me if I am mistaken) you initially claimed that games in March were meaningless, in comparison to ones in November, which you then apologized for by saying you overstated them. I simply assumed that this overstatement covered that post as well as your more recent posts, but I suppose you're now trying to argue the"absolute worth" of games, a concept I find hilarious. Was my assumption foolish? Yes, I suppose my reading comprehension failed me for a second. Still doesn't take away from the absurdity of you arguing that games in November are the same as ones in March.

In the stretch after March the 20th when we matched up against teams fighting for the playoffs (the Rockets on the 20th, the Grizzlies on the 21st, New Orleans on the 24th) when we were maybe a game behind strikes me as MUCH more important than playing Milwaukee on November 29th, for example. Sure the literal worth of winning either game is obviously the same, but had we won the games against Memphis, the Hornets and the Rockets back in March I feel like the season would have ended much differently.The Jazz were 36-33 before they lost that pivotal game in Houston, and then going on a subsequent 8 game losing streak. I don't know how one could argue against this.

You also never addressed the second part of my initial post addressed towards you.

March games for me, are generally not that decisive. You already play almost 70 games the whole year and you can't make much difference with grabbing a few more wins. GVC is trying to say that if Big Al (and Jazz) performed better earlier we wouldn't have been in that critical situation already. So we wouldn't have need to grab a few more wins to enter the playoffs. And if you aren't good enough most of the season, you can't make miracles just in one month and achieve great things in playoffs.

Memphis was one of the best teams in post allstar period that's why they deserved it , and they beat SA. But if we could grab a few more wins in march and make it to playoffs, we would probably get our *** kicked by SA. So you can't prove Big Al had a good year because he made good numbers in relatively not important games. In the month of march, we were already discussing here, is it better whether we go to playoffs or get a better draft pick? Even fans lost their hope for the rest of the season means, players are aware whats going on and they aren't stupid to hope they are gonna get into playoffs after they lost their best player and there are 2 teams performing much better than them ahead. (Houston and Memphis)

Here i send a link to Big Als game log stats, you will see that he sucked in march except the SA game. Let me tell you the only games he put a above average performance and that we won in after deron williams trade. (and it is normal he averaged more than before because he turned out to be the first option on offense)

https://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2389/al-jefferson


January, indiana 30 points 9 rebs
February
sacramento 27 points 7 rebs
toronto 34 points 8 rebs
philadelphia 30 pts 17 rebs
minnesota 26 pts 11 rebs

march
lakers 11 pts 11 rebs
new orleans 8 pts 6 rebs
denver 17 pts 10 rebs

Actually i have posted our only wins in after dwill trade. So as you have seen, the fact that he made some good numbers against the worst teams in the league doesn't convince me that he marginally increased his performance and became such a good player or whatever. If you say he made a big leap in post all star break, i would say that's because he totally sucked before all star. If a player is getting 14 million per year, he is supposed to perform at least like jefferson did in the post all star break but it shouldn't make him special that he performed well. Because there are bunch of guys in the league performing better than him with less salary.

I think Big Al is a good player, but whoever thinks he is our most important player, franchise player, one of the best 10 big men in the league or whatever, i would say, just wake up from your dream because he is not.