Huh? I think rebounding is the only reason I'd be able to talk myself into Brown at #30 (though it would require big leaps of faith in other areas). Brown's a terrific rebounder (far better as a defensive rebounder, and just a bit better, by rate, as a total rebounder than Derrick Favors was as a freshman.)
2021 NBA Draft Preview (new thread)
- Thread starter Ferguson_Mellochill
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I think more than just a "fantastic switch defender," we need a long, rangy, switchable guy who can be solid both on defense and playable within our offense. That means someone who can create/finish/shoot sufficiently not to be played off the floor. The Clippers handed it to us not only because we couldn't hold up defensively (though that certainly was a problem), but because almost everyone they had that could switch defensively was also a decent offensive threat (esp. with Mann having the series of his life).
Whether Herb Jones is someone that Quin will trust to play offensively, I'm not sure. He might be. But he might also be Ronnie Brewer unplayable on offense during the playoffs. I think I'd take him over Greg Brown, however; ... hmm -- close call on that one.
I will say that, shooting (and already being a senior) aside, I love what Herb Jones does as far as playing winning basketball.
Looking at CBS top 100 players list before the season makes it hard to be excited for the draft, low key, lol.
Of their top 100 list 30 were either former #1 overall picks or top 5 picks and 26 were former lottery picks.
In their top 25 players only Kawhi, Giannis, Butler, and Jokic were non-lottery picks.
So basically unless you have a top 5 pick or lottery pick, the player you take will probably not be very good.
Of their top 100 list 30 were either former #1 overall picks or top 5 picks and 26 were former lottery picks.
In their top 25 players only Kawhi, Giannis, Butler, and Jokic were non-lottery picks.
So basically unless you have a top 5 pick or lottery pick, the player you take will probably not be very good.
So if you're picking outside of the lottery in the 1st round drafting a PG or defensive big probably won't net you a good starter as Lowry and Holiday are the only PG's and Rudy is the only defensive big. If you are going to take a big, looking for one that's already pretty developed offensively is the move, although it's an outlier to hit on one of those guys either as Collins, Vuc, and Nurkic were the only 3.
8/14 of those guys that panned out into good players were 6'6"+ wings with 6'10"+ wingspans.
The only non-lottery potential first round picks that fit that mold are Joshua Primo, Joe Wieskamp, JT Thor, Trey Murphy, Ziaire Williams, Roko Prkacin, and Greg Brown
8/14 of those guys that panned out into good players were 6'6"+ wings with 6'10"+ wingspans.
The only non-lottery potential first round picks that fit that mold are Joshua Primo, Joe Wieskamp, JT Thor, Trey Murphy, Ziaire Williams, Roko Prkacin, and Greg Brown
LoPo
Well-Known Member
We are talking about the #30 pick or a 2nd rounder we go out and buy. If we can get a guy with a high end NBA skill, I think we should do it. Like the post above references, great players rarely come out of late picks and 2nd rounders. What I'm looking for with our pick is a perimeter defense specialist. I think Herb Jones is that guy almost right away.
The icing on the cake is that he loves to work and he does the things that don't always show up in the box score.
We could try to get a guy with a more complete skill set, but I don't think that guy would be there ready to help us come playoff time. He's going to be too raw on offense and not quite ready on defense.
There are a few others you're missing, like Jokic, Jerami Grant and Christian Wood, imo.
What they have in common are:
a) prototypical size and physical tools, even if they're underdeveloped
b) strong work ethic to raise their skill level
c) outside the NCAA Power Conferences, meaning they're less publicized and a bit off the radar.
Jazz have done well in the past drafting underdeveloped Euro players in the 20s, like Gobert and Kirilenko.
Udidthizz
Well-Known Member
I agree. I’d prefer a guy with a clear nba skill to a guy with a more complete skill set, none of which might pan out in the nba. The last few drafts guys I really wanted were Thybulle and Xavier Tillman. Thybulle can’t shoot (or score at all, for that matter) but has clear value for Philly. Tillman would have fitted seamlessly on the Jazz. The reason for drafting guys that know how to play winning basketball is simple: they know how to play winning basketball and that’s a skill in itself.
He's raw but he rebounds at a high rate, flashed as a shot blocker, moves his feet well, and had a ton of deflections although wish he had more steals.
He had a 91.6 DRTG and +2.7 DBPM. In comparison Lu Dort had a 101 DRTG and +1.6 DBPM, Ben Simmons had a 98.4 DRTG and +3.3 DBPM, and Kawhi Leonard had an 86.3 DRTG and +3.9 DBPM.
Everyone on here has complained that we passed on Jaden McDaniels last year. On Bart Torvick's player similarity score Brown's statistical profile was closest to Jaden McDaniels coming out. McDaniels had a 95.4 DRTG and +2.2 DBPM.
McDaniels per 40 min averaged 16.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.8 blocks, 4.2 turnovers on 40% FG, 33% 3FG, and 76% FT. He also hit 1.4 3's per game at a 33% clip.
Brown per 40 min averaged 18.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.1 steals,, 1.9 blocks, 4.5 turnovers on 42% FG, 33% 3FG, 71% FT. He hit 1.3 3's per game at a 33% clip.
At the combine they do a shuttle test which measures reactive agility. Brown was 1st beating out Scottie Barnes who is praised for his ability to guard 1-5.
I was strictly referring to non-lottery 1st round picks.
Roko Prkacin jumps off the screen for me as someone who could have borderline All Star potential, like a Gordon Hayward or Danilo Gallinari. I can make an argument that he's in the same tier as Franz Wagner, especially given that he's a year younger. His main question mark is his defensive versatility.
The other guy in our draft range who has near All Star potential would be Brandon Boston. He's got SGA measurables and the potential to be a 2-way/triple-threat player, but he's got a lot of work to do and his floor is very low.
Vrenz Bleijenberg is a wild card. He'll need to develop a more advanced handle and some craftiness off the dribble. If he can do that, he becomes very interesting.
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Brandon Boston Jr and Joshua Primo both have all of the physical tools you're looking for but they're both extremely raw with low floors.
Joe Wieskamp is reportedly getting some first round buzz after he came the combine. 6'7" with a 6'11" wingspan and a 42" vertical leap. Made 2.4 3's per game last season at a 46% clip, basically a Duncan Robinson clone. Just not sure how well he'll defend in the league.
You're rounding up generously to make Primo fit in this category. I'd also say you're not including the whole set of possible non-lottery first rounders in this category: Vrenz (I think he has a shot to be in the first round, at least as much as Wieskamp and maybe Brown), Jalen Johnson (could fall out of the lottery), and possibly Isaiah Todd (though probably not).
Otherwise, you've provided an interesting thought here. I may try to explore it more later if I have time.
Primo reportedly has a 1st round promise which is why he hired an agent/stayed in the draft.
I should have been clearer. The rounding up I meant for Primo was with height/wingspan, not draft position likelihood.
LoPo
Well-Known Member
Primo will be a very good player.
Your optimism is insidious here. This comparison puts blinders over what I sometimes see from Roko in terms of defensive potential. (I was also intrigued by a Thad Young comparison I saw elsewhere). If he can survive defensively maybe he can be this jack-of-all-trades PF and small-ball-5-when needed. Or maybe he's Adam Keefe (taking into account the differences from the game 30 years ago)? That wouldn't be terrible either, honestly, out of a #30 pick.
The thing that scares me is that Roko's Bogey's size with somewhat similar athleticism -- maybe just a touch longer and likelier to be a little more powerful. It's a leap of faith to trust that his defense will get to where it needs to be.
I'm grading Roko's defense as 'Incomplete' because he's only 18. No 18 year-old is going to be much of a defensive player at the NBA level. Nonetheless, the 18 year-old version of Roko compares well to Marcus Morris' junior year at Kansas, when Morris was three years older. That includes blocks and steals.
I'm also giving Roko the benefit of the doubt because he plays with a certain toughness and competitive fire that suggests he'll at least TRY to defend. I don't think he's Gallinari at that end.