Trade deadline discussion

[SoberasHotRod]

I think mostly cuz its not true. I heard Locke going on about how he's our GP2 and writing a limerick for his 4 rebound 2 assist performance last night.

He's fine... he's not as disruptive as Shaq or GP2 and he's a negative offensive player and trending the wrong direction. Being a bad shooter will hurt the team... but not nearly as much as being a complete non-shooter. When Jock Londale is the defensive anchor it isn't a big issue and we will score still, but there are times when his guy is playing completely off of him and when the ball comes his way it becomes a turnover or drive to nowhere. Just won't cut it versus real competition.

And again... we didn't make time to even give Shaq time... if we did and had a prospect like Butler sitting there... I'd likely have an issue.

Forrest might not be as disruptive as other players, but his effect on our defense has been huge. For example his defensive rating this year is a 97.7, GPII is a 96.8 playing with much better defenders. I get why the coaching staff is high on him, and he potentially gives us a lot of what we really need. He's also young and has room to be even better as a defender.

I am in the boat of wanting to see what Butler can do as well. I think he deserves another chance with rotation players. I'm hopeful he's learned the offense a little better and looks more comfortable. Butler is still our best prospect in a long time, and it would be crappy if we screw that up. I just don't think we have to hate on Forrest to make that argument.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Forrest might not be as disruptive as other players, but his effect on our defense has been huge. For example his defensive rating this year is a 97.7, GPII is a 96.8 playing with much better defenders. I get why the coaching staff is high on him, and he potentially gives us a lot of what we really need. He's also young and has room to be even better as a defender.

I am in the boat of wanting to see what Butler can do as well. I think he deserves another chance with rotation players. I'm hopeful he's learned the offense a little better and looks more comfortable. Butler is still our best prospect in a long time, and it would be crappy if we screw that up. I just don't think we have to hate on Forrest to make that argument.

Defensive Rating is tough to use... for instance Kevin Love has a 101 drtg and Draymond Green has a 99.... I prefer on/off stuff to drtg... steals, deflections, blocks are all important too... some can be misleading of course. GP2 makes the leagues best defensive team 5 pts per 100 possessions better than they are without him. They are also better with him on the court offensively. He's tops of the league in steals and deflections... he is likely the cause for them being better.

The team is better on defense with Forrest in the game. He also has a lot more garbage time in his minutes than a guy like GP2, but the offensive difference with Forrest is a -8.3 per 100... So that is where things get ugly.... and if wasn't the case earlier in the season but has been trending horribly the last month. The bench defense is solid.... and not because of Trent... its because of Whiteside and the fact that Bojan and Donovan are off the floor.

Forrest is a solid defender... he's an atrocious offensive player. He's regular season minute filler, which is fine... if you don't have something more interesting waiting in the wings.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Defensive Rating is tough to use... for instance Kevin Love has a 101 drtg and Draymond Green has a 99.... I prefer on/off stuff to drtg... steals, deflections, blocks are all important too... some can be misleading of course. GP2 makes the leagues best defensive team 5 pts per 100 possessions better than they are without him. They are also better with him on the court offensively. He's tops of the league in steals and deflections... he is likely the cause for them being better.

The team is better on defense with Forrest in the game. He also has a lot more garbage time in his minutes than a guy like GP2, but the offensive difference with Forrest is a -8.3 per 100... So that is where things get ugly.... and if wasn't the case earlier in the season but has been trending horribly the last month. The bench defense is solid.... and not because of Trent... its because of Whiteside and the fact that Bojan and Donovan are off the floor.

Forrest is a solid defender... he's an atrocious offensive player. He's regular season minute filler, which is fine... if you don't have something more interesting waiting in the wings.

The garbage time actually hurts Forrest advanced numbers because the garbage time lineups have played terribly.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

 

[KqWIN]

Forrest might not be as disruptive as other players, but his effect on our defense has been huge. For example his defensive rating this year is a 97.7, GPII is a 96.8 playing with much better defenders. I get why the coaching staff is high on him, and he potentially gives us a lot of what we really need. He's also young and has room to be even better as a defender.

I am in the boat of wanting to see what Butler can do as well. I think he deserves another chance with rotation players. I'm hopeful he's learned the offense a little better and looks more comfortable. Butler is still our best prospect in a long time, and it would be crappy if we screw that up. I just don't think we have to hate on Forrest to make that argument.

Eh...the numbers are always going to be somewhat misleading in this role. They only come in the context of our super bench lineup. If you only play in that lineup, those numbers are going to be amazing. It's why Oni was a +20 per100. Oni wasn't a superhuman player, he just happened to only play in maybe the best relative lineup in the league. I think it should be more alarming that Forrest filling in the same lineups is not nearly as successful. It's also misleading because a lot of the minutes are going to be in garbage time, which could really throw things off. For example, the gap between GP2 and Forrest is much bigger when you filter out garbage time.

The Jazz do need a defender, but it can't come at the cost of completely destroying the offense. It's why I am more hopeful of Oni. Standing in the corner doing nothing and shooting 35% will not destroy the offense. Dominating the ball for large amounts of time while also doing nothing will actually destroy the offense.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The garbage time actually hurts Forrest advanced numbers because the garbage time lineups have played terribly.

Maybe… unless you actually see the numbers you don’t know for sure. It seems most of his made baskets also come in games where there is garbage time… so the sword cuts both ways.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If we had Yuta I’d be clamoring for him to play over Forrest too.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Maybe… unless you actually see the numbers you don’t know for sure. It seems most of his made baskets also come in games where there is garbage time… so the sword cuts both ways.

They are on basketballreference.

 

[infection]

The Forrest and Shaq comparison or equating is silly. At least in the theory of what Shaq was vs. how Quin played him. The whole idea behind Shaq was not for him to be a PG. It was for him to come in specifically to be a defender and not as the guy bringing the ball up the floor. Unfortunately, Quin never threw him in there for a defensive assignment and so we only saw him as a garbage time PG. Using Shaq as a PG and not putting him in there for a specific defensive assignment or to get deflections? Yeah, that's stupid. We shouldn't do that. This same things translates over for Forrest. If Forrest were coming in for specific defensive assignments when we're getting our asses torched, I'd actually be pretty comfortable with it. Not necessarily because Forrest is some kind of defensive savant, but because it would indicate at least a modicum of awareness of that weakness on Quin's part and a smidge of a willingness to adjust. Alas, that's not what we get. Forrest is not at all brought in for a specific defensive adjustment. It may come under the guise of "he plays defense so it's valuable and he gets minutes," but he's put on the floor to be the PG when he's out there. And that part is entirely pointless other than to soak up minutes where we don't have to ride our main cogs so much.

So I'm not so high on the "guys is point guard, point guard guy must play point guard" caveman thinking. I'm also not a big fan of "guy who is defender but can't shoot kill offense, no play good defender who can't shoot" thinking. So instead we think that because "point guard guy" can do "point guard things" that it negates the poor shooting and we roll with it at PG. Then we never explore a defensive guy who can't shoot because "poor shooting kill offense, offense historic and need good shoot."

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Eh...the numbers are always going to be somewhat misleading in this role. They only come in the context of our super bench lineup. If you only play in that lineup, those numbers are going to be amazing. It's why Oni was a +20 per100. Oni wasn't a superhuman player, he just happened to only play in maybe the best relative lineup in the league. I think it should be more alarming that Forrest filling in the same lineups is not nearly as successful. It's also misleading because a lot of the minutes are going to be in garbage time, which could really throw things off. For example, the gap between GP2 and Forrest is much bigger when you filter out garbage time.

The Jazz do need a defender, but it can't come at the cost of completely destroying the offense. It's why I am more hopeful of Oni. Standing in the corner doing nothing and shooting 35% will not destroy the offense. Dominating the ball for large amounts of time while also doing nothing will actually destroy the offense.

I don’t think people understand how detrimental it is to go from a bad shooter to a completely unwilling shooter. Marcus Smart is still respected and guarded on the perimeter because he will shoot. For Forrest to “unleash his potential” he will need to:

-be willing to shoot the spot up three
- speed up his release so it doesn’t take a half hour to load
- make it at a 30% ish clip but eventually move to 35% on spot ups.
- finally be able to shoot off the dribble.

He’s on step one and not likely to move a whole lot further. I’d say his defense is definitely better than Oni’s but it’s not a world of difference. I think Butler is worse than both guys but actually has some potential. He gets his hands on the ball and went from an okay defender to all big ten or 12 or whatever. He has good hands and can move really well. He may not be a stopper but he could be above league average. If he gets a little more comfortable he could hopefully be ready to take some of the Joe Ingles creation roles next year and perform at a high level. He gets where he wants on the court and seems to be able to get a quality pull-up look whenever he wants… he has big upside. It makes no sense to me not to help it develop so we get to watch Forrest do nothing out there for 5-20 minutes a night. If JB is unplayable after 25 games then go back to the guy who is just hoping not to **** up.

 

[jom2003]

The Forrest and Shaq comparison or equating is silly. At least in the theory of what Shaq was vs. how Quin played him. The whole idea behind Shaq was not for him to be a PG. It was for him to come in specifically to be a defender and not as the guy bringing the ball up the floor. Unfortunately, Quin never threw him in there for a defensive assignment and so we only saw him as a garbage time PG. Using Shaq as a PG and not putting him in there for a specific defensive assignment or to get deflections? Yeah, that's stupid. We shouldn't do that. This same things translates over for Forrest. If Forrest were coming in for specific defensive assignments when we're getting our asses torched, I'd actually be pretty comfortable with it. Not necessarily because Forrest is some kind of defensive savant, but because it would indicate at least a modicum of awareness of that weakness on Quin's part and a smidge of a willingness to adjust. Alas, that's not what we get. Forrest is not at all brought in for a specific defensive adjustment. It may come under the guise of "he plays defense so it's valuable and he gets minutes," but he's put on the floor to be the PG when he's out there. And that part is entirely pointless other than to soak up minutes where we don't have to ride our main cogs so much.

So I'm not so high on the "guys is point guard, point guard guy must play point guard" caveman thinking. I'm also not a big fan of "guy who is defender but can't shoot kill offense, no play good defender who can't shoot" thinking. So instead we think that because "point guard guy" can do "point guard things" that it negates the poor shooting and we roll with it at PG. Then we never explore a defensive guy who can't shoot because "poor shooting kill offense, offense historic and need good shoot."

it doesn't help that neither Shaq nor Forrest can shoot, so they are even more useless as offball shooters. Ben Simmons could at least post up smaller defenders and score inside. There's just not really a role for Shaq or Forrest on offense. The purpose of bringing on a defensive specialist can't be defeated with major offensive setbacks, and that's the cost that comes with playing a guy like Shaq, which is why there's exactly zero team wanting to give him a chance of NBA actions right now.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The Forrest and Shaq comparison or equating is silly. At least in the theory of what Shaq was vs. how Quin played him. The whole idea behind Shaq was not for him to be a PG. It was for him to come in specifically to be a defender and not as the guy bringing the ball up the floor. Unfortunately, Quin never threw him in there for a defensive assignment and so we only saw him as a garbage time PG. Using Shaq as a PG and not putting him in there for a specific defensive assignment or to get deflections? Yeah, that's stupid. We shouldn't do that. This same things translates over for Forrest. If Forrest were coming in for specific defensive assignments when we're getting our asses torched, I'd actually be pretty comfortable with it. Not necessarily because Forrest is some kind of defensive savant, but because it would indicate at least a modicum of awareness of that weakness on Quin's part and a smidge of a willingness to adjust. Alas, that's not what we get. Forrest is not at all brought in for a specific defensive adjustment. It may come under the guise of "he plays defense so it's valuable and he gets minutes," but he's put on the floor to be the PG when he's out there. And that part is entirely pointless other than to soak up minutes where we don't have to ride our main cogs so much.

So I'm not so high on the "guys is point guard, point guard guy must play point guard" caveman thinking. I'm also not a big fan of "guy who is defender but can't shoot kill offense, no play good defender who can't shoot" thinking. So instead we think that because "point guard guy" can do "point guard things" that it negates the poor shooting and we roll with it at PG. Then we never explore a defensive guy who can't shoot because "poor shooting kill offense, offense historic and need good shoot."

There are also just levels to it. Those guys are just flat out more forceful and disruptive… Forrest might be able to get there and maybe it’s Quins fault but the fact is he isn’t getting his hand on the ball and that’s what we sorely lack. The GP2, Dunn, Shaq types double him up when it comes to those stats. Sometimes the gambles don’t work and it ends badly but we also have two huge rim protectors to clean up some messes…

It’s like saying we have a perimeter scorer in Bojan… so no need to have Durant.

Contending teams invest in worthy projects even if it hurts the chances of winning on any given night. Butler’s projected utility is not a perfect fit with the current bench unit but he needs some court time… and maybe you tell him he needs to focus on his defense and see if his improvements come on that side of the ball rather than just with the ball in his hands.

I also have a little issue with the fact that the plan was to play Butler and after like 5 minutes of bad shooting he gets yanked. Trent has had some really bad moments too but we are ride or die with him for some reason.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

it doesn't help that neither Shaq nor Forrest can shoot, so they are even more useless as offball shooters. Ben Simmons could at least post up smaller defenders and score inside. There's just not really a role for Shaq or Forrest on offense. The purpose of bringing on a defensive specialist can't be defeated with major offensive setbacks, and that's the cost that comes with playing a guy like Shaq, which is why there's exactly zero team wanting to give him a chance of NBA actions right now.

But what if Shaq was given the Forrest role and got twice as many steals as Trent and half as many turnovers… having the ball gives you a distinct offensive advantage imo.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

But what if Shaq was given the Forrest role and got twice as many steals as Trent and half as many turnovers… having the ball gives you a distinct offensive advantage imo.

Shaq didn't work as a lead ball handler. Like at all.

 

[jom2003]

But what if Shaq was given the Forrest role and got twice as many steals as Trent and half as many turnovers… having the ball gives you a distinct offensive advantage imo.

if there's a team emphasized on fast pace transition basketball, i could see Shaq or Forrest being useful. But to play in Quin's offense, you gotta have a role in half court setting.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

And Oni ain’t much better but at least he’s on step 3 of being a good shooter where Trent is at step 0.

Oni also might benefit from being able to be more physical.

The other benefit is if JB starts reaching his offensive potential early you can flip one of the other pieces for a more established defensive piece with less of a drop off offensively.

We will end up seeing some JB minutes soon. I hope he shoots like 50% from three or he’s headed to the Dante Exum Memorial Doghouse.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Shaq didn't work as a lead ball handler. Like at all.

Jebus…

He’s a wing… he also played like zero non garbage time minutes. All I know is he gave Denver a few solid minutes of defense in the Portland series… I think he has some utility… might have to have a coach that thinks just a little bit outside of the box.

 

[jom2003]

I don’t think people understand how detrimental it is to go from a bad shooter to a completely unwilling shooter. Marcus Smart is still respected and guarded on the perimeter because he will shoot. For Forrest to “unleash his potential” he will need to:

-be willing to shoot the spot up three
- speed up his release so it doesn’t take a half hour to load
- make it at a 30% ish clip but eventually move to 35% on spot ups.
- finally be able to shoot off the dribble.

He’s on step one and not likely to move a whole lot further. I’d say his defense is definitely better than Oni’s but it’s not a world of difference. I think Butler is worse than both guys but actually has some potential. He gets his hands on the ball and went from an okay defender to all big ten or 12 or whatever. He has good hands and can move really well. He may not be a stopper but he could be above league average. If he gets a little more comfortable he could hopefully be ready to take some of the Joe Ingles creation roles next year and perform at a high level. He gets where he wants on the court and seems to be able to get a quality pull-up look whenever he wants… he has big upside. It makes no sense to me not to help it develop so we get to watch Forrest do nothing out there for 5-20 minutes a night. If JB is unplayable after 25 games then go back to the guy who is just hoping not to **** up.

that's exactly the case. You can be bad shooters, like Crowder, Smart or Payton II. But you can't be too scared to shoot. The effect of your opponent sagging off on you to create a 5 on 4 environment is way worse than you bricking a couple of shots.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

if there's a team emphasized on fast pace transition basketball, i could see Shaq or Forrest being useful. But to play in Quin's offense, you gotta have a role in half court setting.

Then maybe they should play Butler… which is 100% what I’m saying.

 

[KqWIN]

I don’t think people understand how detrimental it is to go from a bad shooter to a completely unwilling shooter. Marcus Smart is still respected and guarded on the perimeter because he will shoot. For Forrest to “unleash his potential” he will need to:

-be willing to shoot the spot up three
- speed up his release so it doesn’t take a half hour to load
- make it at a 30% ish clip but eventually move to 35% on spot ups.
- finally be able to shoot off the dribble.

He’s on step one and not likely to move a whole lot further. I’d say his defense is definitely better than Oni’s but it’s not a world of difference. I think Butler is worse than both guys but actually has some potential. He gets his hands on the ball and went from an okay defender to all big ten or 12 or whatever. He has good hands and can move really well. He may not be a stopper but he could be above league average. If he gets a little more comfortable he could hopefully be ready to take some of the Joe Ingles creation roles next year and perform at a high level. He gets where he wants on the court and seems to be able to get a quality pull-up look whenever he wants… he has big upside. It makes no sense to me not to help it develop so we get to watch Forrest do nothing out there for 5-20 minutes a night. If JB is unplayable after 25 games then go back to the guy who is just hoping not to **** up.

It's a problem that only gets worse in the playoffs too. Even when Trent does have success on offense, it's not something that should be sustainable against a playoff gameplan. He can be a decent player in PnR when the defense is in a drop and he's willing to shoot the flaoter. But any competent coaching staff should be able to take that completely out of the picture by just going under. Maybe the reason why teams haven't already done that is because letting Trent dribble the air out the ball is already an effective defensive strategy.