Predict the Rudy Gobert trade

[Elizah Huge]

Just look at what freaking Vucevic or Sabonis got in a trade. If you think Gobert should fetch less then I don't really want to talk about basketball with you. We should treat Gobert with the respect he deserves and not with the urgency CAA wants to get rid off him. If someone wants him they should know who they are trading for - 3 time NBA all star, 4 time All NBA, 3 time DPOY, 6 time first team All D, the best player on a perennial playoff team. And it's not like those happened sometime back in the past...like 5 years ago. This is still the same player! PUT SOME RESPECT ON THAT MAN's NAME and stop with the insulting offers.

This legit made me laugh.

Vucevic went for two firsts and a young player (Wendell Carter Jr)

Sabonis went for bad salary and Haliburton

Sabonis is averaging 19M a year for the next two years and he’s 26.

Vucevic was making 24M when they did the deal and now 22M plus it’s expiring.

Rudy has a terrible contract he is going to be owed 44M and 47M when he is 32 and 33.

He’s also very limited offensively and not many teams want to spend 1/4 or 1/3 of their cap on a limited offensive player.

The type of deals we are throwing out get us a mid first, a young player and a starter. Not sure what else more you expect.

 

[Elizah Huge]

When has any player with a game similar to Rudy’s ever aged gracefully?

Dikembe Mutombo
Ben Wallace
Dwight Howard
DeAndre Jordan

Rudy is better than Jordan defensively and Dwight is better offensively but the point remains the same.

All of these guys games dropped off once they hit 32, 33, 34, etc. Rudy is owed 44M and 47M right in that stretch. That’s not great.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Just look at what freaking Vucevic or Sabonis got in a trade. If you think Gobert should fetch less then I don't really want to talk about basketball with you. We should treat Gobert with the respect he deserves and not with the urgency CAA wants to get rid off him. If someone wants him they should know who they are trading for - 3 time NBA all star, 4 time All NBA, 3 time DPOY, 6 time first team All D, the best player on a perennial playoff team. And it's not like those happened some distant time back in the past...like 5-10 years ago. This is still the same player! PUT SOME RESPECT ON THAT MAN's NAME and stop with the insulting offers.

They did quite well and they found some desperate teams… the issue is both guys were on value deals with like 1/3 the money Rudy has. Both trades were awful when they happened… Carter Jr. bouncing back has made the Orlando trade a damn heist… Franz is the key prize there and not all picks in that range look as good as he does but it was expected that would be a good value.

I’m not sure we can rely on a team doing a bad deal in our timeframe. A mid season Rudy trade would be so disruptive that you’d likely lose the season. I’m fine with that but you’d also likely lose Donovan in that scenario… which I’m fine with if we get a good offer… I guess I am talking myself through this here… I’d be okay waiting until trade deadline if offers aren’t great. There is definitely some risk… but some GMs get more desperate as the season unfolds. We also might have an injury that gets us off to a bad start.

Alright… I guess I’m good digging in a bit here. I’d like to do it before the draft to get a shot at someone who could be good… those picks can go both ways… if they show great potential the prospects are untouchable… if they struggle they depreciate like crazy.

If the goal is to appease Donovan I don’t think it goes over well.

 

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This legit made me laugh.

Vucevic went for two firsts and a young player (Wendell Carter Jr)

Sabonis went for bad salary and Haliburton

Sabonis is averaging 19M a year for the next two years and he’s 26.

Vucevic was making 24M when they did the deal and now 22M plus it’s expiring.

Rudy has a terrible contract he is going to be owed 44M and 47M when he is 32 and 33.

He’s also very limited offensively and not many teams want to spend 1/4 or 1/3 of their cap on a limited offensive player.

The type of deals we are throwing out get us a mid first, a young player and a starter. Not sure what else more you expect.

Yes they make less now... because they are NOT AS GOOD AS GOBERT! How ****ing complicated is this? WHo the hell decided that Gobert's contract is horrible? Gobert's contract as it stands now is perfectly good for the level fo play and impact he gives your team. What you are doing is projecting that he will drop off when he's 32 or 33. Will he? Maybe or maybe not... They are trading for him now. Not in 2024. Mid 1st, a bust who we have to rehabilitate and mediocre starter is not what you expect for a player of Gobert's stature. I'm sorry...

 

[Elizah Huge]

Yes they make less now... because they are NOT AS GOOD AS GOBERT! How ****ing complicated is this? WHo the hell decided that Gobert's contract is horrible? Gobert's contract as it stands now is perfectly good for the level fo play and impact he gives your team. What you are doing is projecting that he will drop off when he's 32 or 33. Will he? Maybe or maybe not... They are trading for him now. Not in 2024. Mid 1st, a bust who we have to rehabilitate and mediocre starter is not what you expect for a player of Gobert's stature. I'm sorry...

Bro… you aren’t serious are you? This is uncharacteristic for you. You’re usually pretty smart when it comes to this stuff.

You think NBA teams don’t take account for the future of the contract when trading for someone?

Paying a limited offensive player the same as top-10 players in the league when he doesn’t give you the same impact as them especially in the playoffs doesn’t equal a good contract now and especially not in the future.

 

[stitches]

They did quite well and they found some desperate teams… the issue is both guys were on value deals with like 1/3 the money Rudy has. Both trades were awful when they happened… Carter Jr. bouncing back has made the Orlando trade a damn heist… Franz is the key prize there and not all picks in that range look as good as he does but it was expected that would be a good value.

I’m not sure we can rely on a team doing a bad deal in our timeframe. A mid season Rudy trade would be so disruptive that you’d likely lose the season. I’m fine with that but you’d also likely lose Donovan in that scenario… which I’m fine with if we get a good offer… I guess I am talking myself through this here… I’d be okay waiting until trade deadline if offers aren’t great. There is definitely some risk… but some GMs get more desperate as the season unfolds. We also might have an injury that gets us off to a bad start.

Alright… I guess I’m good digging in a bit here. I’d like to do it before the draft to get a shot at someone who could be good… those picks can go both ways… if they show great potential the prospects are untouchable… if they struggle they depreciate like crazy.

If the goal is to appease Donovan I don’t think it goes over well.

We are losing Donovan! He is lost already! Stop making decisions based on the wishes of player who 1 month ago refused to make even the mildest commitment to this team. He will not be here past the length of his current contract at the latest and past next summer most likely. We should stop acting as if we don't know what's going to happen. Do what's best for the team and screw Donovan, the KNicks and their agency.

About Gobert's pay again - he is getting paid as if he's an all star and all NBA player... as if he's a premier defensive player and one of the most impactful players in the league. Vucevic and Sabonis ARE NOT THAT! Gobert is being paid what he deserves. And the Jazz should get paid value commensurate with the value and impact Gobert is providing his team. Which for the last 4-5 years has been top 10 in the league!

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yes they make less now... because they are NOT AS GOOD AS GOBERT! How ****ing complicated is this? WHo the hell decided that Gobert's contract is horrible? Gobert's contract as it stands now is perfectly good for the level fo play and impact he gives your team. What you are doing is projecting that he will drop off when he's 32 or 33. Will he? Maybe or maybe not... They are trading for him now. Not in 2024. Mid 1st, a bust who we have to rehabilitate and mediocre starter is not what you expect for a player of Gobert's stature. I'm sorry...

There is a middle ground here though. It’s like buying a house… the mansion is a better house but the buyer may not be able to make the mortgage.

I’m not a Hunter fan personally… not even a huge JC guy but I think he’s good. I just think those pieces are more flexible than Rudy… I also think Clint is pretty under-rated. I’d rather get the stupid team premium but I think Orlando and Indiana had more patience than we might. We are also trying to do the thing where we trade something good now for something that is also good now but different. Those trades are pretty rare I think. So it’s just a challenging situation. It’s why I’d likely just tear it all down and cash out on everything possible. If you simply took picks and prospects back it’s easier to match stuff up and get great value.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We are losing Donovan! He is lost already! Stop making decisions based on the wishes of player who 1 month ago refused to make even the mildest commitment to this team. He will not be here past the length of his current contract at the latest and past next summer most likely. We should stop acting as if we don't know what's going to happen. Do what's best for the team and screw Donovan, the KNicks and their agency.

About Gobert's pay again - he is getting paid as if he's an all star and all NBA player... as if he's a premier defensive player and one of the most impactful players in the league. Vucevic and Sabonis ARE NOT THAT! Gobert is being paid what he deserves. And the Jazz should get paid value commensurate with the value and impact Gobert is providing his team. Which for the last 4-5 years has been top 10 in the league!

Preaching to the choir my friend.

 

[stitches]

Bro… you aren’t serious are you? This is uncharacteristic for you. You’re usually pretty smart when it comes to this stuff.

You think NBA teams don’t take account for the future of the contract when trading for someone?

Paying a limited offensive player the same as top-10 players in the league when he doesn’t give you the same impact as them especially in the playoffs doesn’t equal a good contract now and especially not in the future.

Yes they do. But there is no reason to think Gobert is falling off. Gobert's last season was on par with any of his previous 5 seasons. There are NO SIGNS of him slowing down... he seems to be taking care of his body at the highest level in the league, there is no baby fat or loss of mobility that can be seen. He's one of the best prepared players in the league every single year. Stars in the league getting in their 30s still get premier value. Treat Gobert like the star he is and stop treating him like he's some scrub who's just about to lose all his 9'7 length and all his instincts and defensive ability.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Yes they do. But there is no reason to think Gobert is falling off. Gobert's last season was on par with any of his previous 5 seasons. There are NO SIGNS of him slowing down... he seems to be taking care of his body at the highest level in the league, there is no baby fat or loss of mobility that can be seen. He's one of the best prepared players in the league every single year.

Lol so was Dwight Howard and even more so than Rudy. Dwight was also a better player than Rudy in his prime too.

 

[nateboz]

Lol so was Dwight Howard and even more so than Rudy. Dwight was also a better player than Rudy in his prime too.

Dwight Howard is mentally unwell. He's looney as they come.

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

 

[stitches]

Lol so was Dwight Howard and even more so than Rudy. Dwight was also a better player than Rudy in his prime too.

Dwight suffered series of injuries that hampered his later years and there were repeated reports of him lacking conditioning even when he was with the Lakers. What are we talking about here? That's in addition to all the oddity that was his "personality"...

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We are losing Donovan! He is lost already! Stop making decisions based on the wishes of player who 1 month ago refused to make even the mildest commitment to this team. He will not be here past the length of his current contract at the latest and past next summer most likely. We should stop acting as if we don't know what's going to happen. Do what's best for the team and screw Donovan, the KNicks and their agency.

About Gobert's pay again - he is getting paid as if he's an all star and all NBA player... as if he's a premier defensive player and one of the most impactful players in the league. Vucevic and Sabonis ARE NOT THAT! Gobert is being paid what he deserves. And the Jazz should get paid value commensurate with the value and impact Gobert is providing his team. Which for the last 4-5 years has been top 10 in the league!

Ironically I think the trade value of Nic and Sabonis also benefits from their lack of playoff experience… which is where Rudy’s warts are most apparent… but he always gets there so that’s why you get to see it.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Dwight suffered series of injuries that hampered his later years and there were repeated reports of him lacking conditioning even when he was with the Lakers. What are we talking about here? That's in addition to all the oddity that was his personality...

So just so we are clear, you are banking on Gobert continuing this level of play when he is 32 and 33 even though we have a proven track record of this not being the case? His contract of 44M and 47M at those ages is perfectly fine as well?

Him eating up 1/3 of the cap for a team is also a recipe for success especially in the playoffs?

 

[Elizah Huge]

If Sacramento called and offered Sabonis in a package for Gobert you think we’d say no?

 

[stitches]

So just so we are clear, you are banking on Gobert continuing this level of play when he is 32 and 33 even though we have a proven track record of this not being the case? His contract of 44M and 47M at those ages is perfectly fine as well?

Him eating up 1/3 of the cap for a team is also a recipe for success especially in the playoffs?

I'm not banking on it... but I am also not just assuming he will be massive liability. The reality is in certain % of cases he will still be worth his money(especially with rising cap), in certain % of cases he will suffer slight drop off, which will make his contract a slight negative, but he will still be a very useful player, and in certain % of cases he will drop off a ton and the team would rather not have made that trade altogether. But that's true with pretty much everybody. Take any 29-30 year old star. These are the prime years of players like that. I'm trying to find the graphs for performance by age of NBA players, but can't seem to find it now. Point is - as far as I remember players of that stature don't suffer huge drop offs in that age - on the contrary - those are actually their prime years - 29-32 or thereabout...

 

[Elizah Huge]

I just think it’s hilarious that all of the major beat writers we respect on here agree on Rudy’s value as well as the reported rumored packages but there is a small army on JazzFanz who think 99% of everyone else is wrong and they are right.

I almost hope we don’t trade Gobert due to the mental breakdown a lot of you would have on here due to the package we got back not being enough in your eyes.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I'm not banking on it... but I am also not just assuming he will be massive liability. The reality is in certain % of cases he will still be worth his money(especially with rising cap), in certain % of cases he will suffer slight drop off, which will make his contract a slight negative, but he will still be a very useful player, and in certain % of cases he will drop off a ton and the team would rather not have made that trade altogether. But that's true with pretty much everybody. Take any 29-30 year old star. These are the prime years of players like that. I'm trying to find the graphs for performance by age of NBA players, but can't seem to find it now. Point is - as far as I remember players of that stature don't suffer huge drop offs in that age - on the contrary - those are actually their prime years - 29-32 or thereabout...

We are talking about defensive big men not other stars. I just gave you a list of guys similar and they all declined. That is 3-4 years from now is when he’s getting paid that massive amount I don’t think you understand that.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If Sacramento called and offered Sabonis in a package for Gobert you think we’d say no?

I would say no for sure. He’s in same mold as Randle, Vooch imo. You wont build a credible defense with bigs like that and his shooting deficiency limits his offensive value. If those guys are starting your ceiling is first round of the playoffs and they are the toughest players to fit on a good playoff team.

Sabonis wasn’t able to find great success next to a rim protecting and shooting center. Kind of his ideal situation. He’s fine and all but Sacramento will look back on that deal and be sad.

 

[One Brow]

When has any player with a game similar to Rudy’s ever aged gracefully?

Dikembe Mutombo
Ben Wallace
Dwight Howard
DeAndre Jordan

Rudy is better than Jordan defensively and Dwight is better offensively but the point remains the same.

All of these guys games dropped off once they hit 32, 33, 34, etc. Rudy is owed 44M and 47M right in that stretch. That’s not great.

Three of these four were very different players from Gobert. Wallace was undersized relied more on athleticism for defense, so a drop-off at 33 isn't unsurprising. Howard is shorter, more muscular, and more prone to injury; he dropped off after is surgery. Jordan is shorter, more muscular; he peaked at age 25 and has been slowly dropping since.

Mutombo is a better physical comparison, as he's closer to the height and musculature of Gobert, and also closer in style of play. However, he's bad for your argument. Early-30s Mutombo was peak Mutombo, that's when he was at his best. He played until he was 42. If we keep Gobert, we can only hope he's following Mutombo's trajectory. Right now, he's not slowing down.