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Its Time to Tank

Why?
If next 2 seasons ( 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 ) are more tanking than winning Lauri walks out for free summer 2025.

24 months ( 2 years ) is not plenty of time and that will run out fast.
Of course Ainge can trade Lauri at some point if it looks that he's going to test 2025 UFA free-agency that way Lauri will not walk out for free.

We are talking about the next 20-30 games not the next two seasons silly.


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Resting more guys on back-to-backs, absolutely makes sense. The Jazz have done surprisingly little of it, only Mike a few times. Resting someone like Lauri on a six game roadtrip in one of the middle games against the Magic, yeah, sure.

That doesn't get you to 5-22. That doesn't get you the 5th seed in the lottery. It gets you maybe one extra loss, two max.

And why on earth would Lauri (or to a lesser extent Colin, or JC/Beasley should they stay with team) agree to sit out the rest of the season? He's gonna lose out on millions and millions and limit his options, for what? To have one Jazz pick move up from maybe the 13th pick to the 8th? That's gonna be a player that most likely won't have any major effect on the team's fortunes during the next two years he's gonna be in Utah.

Lauri had a bit of a reputation as being injury prone previously. Three straight seasons with the Bulls never played more than 50 games, then 60 games with the Cavs. Also, probably many other front offices are looking at his season now and thinking if it's a flash in the pan or sustainable. He sits out now and he's again at only 50 games and it's still a question mark if he's a "real" All-Star.

***

As we saw last night a bunch of starters being out doesn't guarantee anyone a loss or a win. Let's say the Jazz are playing at OKC and have a 60 % of winning. Then they sit out Lauri, JC, Mike and KO. Now it's maybe 38 %. You didn't go from one win to one loss suddenly. Instead you on the probabilities lost .22 wins. You have to string five (5) of those games in order to get one (1) extra loss vs. the scenario of everyone playing as usual.
 
The FO is on the clock and we will soon find out what the roster trims will be. Lets try not to set the world on fire before that. I think we will steer towards youth minutes (coach + FO codeword agreement for "tank"), and I think if we trade or bench Conley it will help us lose more. I'm not sure if selling Clarkson is a tank move.. I sometimes feel like he is the best tank commander keeping the ball away from Lauri.

Keep this in mind however:
The "youth" lineup of Lauri, Kessler, Ochai, Sexton + whoever is not gonna finish the season with 5-25 or something. Remember that "tanking" in the traditional meaning is a firesale including your best players. We dont intend to trade our 2 best players, and Ochai/Sexton getting 25+ minutes might end up working better than expected. There is a world where we actually become better, since suddenly our perimeter defense becomes much improved and we can still score enough points to win even without the flamethrowers and Conleys assists...

I'm just hoping those who are for hardcore tanking wont be flaming the boards rest of the season if we end up not sucking well enough.

I have no problem at all if we are winning lots of games off the backs of sexton, ochai, lauri, and kessler. In fact, i think that would be ideal.


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Yes but in order to have knee soreness there has to be knee soreness. If the player says "I'm fine" there is nothing the med staff can do.

If I was too sinister about it that was not my intention. However this year Silver gave a warning that they are monitoring this kind of stuff extra careful (because of Wemby). I trust the FO knows where the limit is, and as I said the "precautionary outs" will likely come to play. But not to the tune of Lauri missing half our remaining games (unless there is at least some legit minor injury).

Just tell the player to say they have knee soreness instead of im fine. They arent in a courtroom risking perjury or something.


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At this point odds are our pick will be better than Minny's pick anyway, so we might as well help our own tank, because winning that game doesn't do much to drop them further in the standings and it hurts our own tank.

I think beating Minnesota is more important.


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And why on earth would Lauri (or to a lesser extent Colin, or JC/Beasley should they stay with team) agree to sit out the rest of the season?

Who said anyone should sit out the rest of the season?


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And the other option is not tanking and continue to play vets that have no long term future here. One option gives us the potential to take a giant leap forward and other option keeps us in mediocrity. Why you would choose the second is beyond stupid.
There is nothing stupid about culture and developing players you have instead of saying to all of them : you are useless for us, please don't ever try to win, so we can replace you with others just like you that have more shine coming into the league, and are younger so therefore have higher potential smh.
Getting a top 8 pick is only certain if you have one if the WORST 4 records in the league and there is no way the Jazz roster, even without the vets that have started this season, like Clarkson Mike Beasley etc, changes the Jazz win total enough to be one of those 4 worst.
If the Jazz did not trade for the Finnisher and Swat lake, they maybe would have had a chance to tank. They did and your complaints are what seem stupid here.
Wemby and Scoot as good as they may be are not locks to change a franchise either.
 
I have no problem at all if we are winning lots of games off the backs of sexton, ochai, lauri, and kessler. In fact, i think that would be ideal.


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Neither do I. What I fear is we "dont tank well enough" for some posters who then go on a rampage throughout the rest of the season.

I'm cool as long as the moves look like they are pushing us the right way... but some see the only right way is through the bottom which is what I'm trying to fight. There are other paths.

This is not targeted at you btw.. I know you are pro tank right now but I know you wont flame the board either way.
 
Please tank. We're 1.5 games away from being 13th in the West. Just lose and finish off the season strong.
I have a side bet with a coworker who feels like a lot of you do. I am fine if they tank to end the season selling off vets etc. But imo I am betting the Jazz are late lottery or right after, as being in the play in tourney is the goal now and they will not tank.
They are fine with consolodating picks, and moving up if needs be, if it means they get some playoff experience.
 
Neither do I. What I fear is we "dont tank well enough" for some posters who then go on a rampage throughout the rest of the season.

I'm cool as long as the moves look like they are pushing us the right way... but some see the only right way is through the bottom which is what I'm trying to fight. There are other paths.

This is not targeted at you btw.. I know you are pro tank right now but I know you wont flame the board either way.

Thing is, if we trade conley, gay, KO and clarkson and then make the playoff i dont think any of the hardcore pro tankers will “flame the board”
Maybe you can think of some posters who would? If so, you should pose the question and @ them to see how they would feel about a jazz team with no vets playing great. I bet they would be fine with it.

I think the pro tankers want management to tank as hard as they can but they dont expect sexton, ochai, lauri, kessler etc to go out there on the court and intentionally miss shots and play with no effort.


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Neither do I. What I fear is we "dont tank well enough" for some posters who then go on a rampage throughout the rest of the season.

I'm cool as long as the moves look like they are pushing us the right way... but some see the only right way is through the bottom which is what I'm trying to fight. There are other paths.

This is not targeted at you btw.. I know you are pro tank right now but I know you wont flame the board either way.
If we get in the 8/9 range that is good enough for me. I just want a chance at top 4 or to get one of our first choices of the guys after top 4. There's a chance we could get to 6-7 but I think it is slim because of the number of teams that are bunched up. Collecting assets is also good even though we have a ton. If we land 8/9 and can plop down the Lakers pick to get to 3/4 that might be something worth doing. If we snuck into the playoffs and landed at 15 and had to dip into the Cavs/Wolves picks to maneuver that sucks.
 
Thing is, if we trade conley, gay, KO and clarkson and then make the playoff i dont think any of the hardcore pro tankers will “flame the board”
Maybe you can think of some posters who would? If so, you should pose the question and @ them to see how they would feel about a jazz team with no vets playing great. I bet they would be fine with it.

I think the pro tankers want management to tank as hard as they can but they dont expect sexton, ochai, lauri, kessler etc to go out there on the court and intentionally miss shots and play with no effort.


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Very much this. Relying on guys that won't be here for the next 3 years to win enough to hose our draft picks is not ideal. If the young guys do it then it means they are awesome.
 
Very much this. Relying on guys that won't be here for the next 3 years to win enough to hose our draft picks is not ideal. If the young guys do it then it means they are awesome.
And if the young guys carry us there and we cashed in on the old guys... that means we have more cash. It also opens up cap space potentially that we could use to go get more useful vets in positions of need that can benefit us for the long term.

Danny knows whats up and the opportunity in front of him... he's not gonna miss his shot... cue the Hamilton music in your head all day.
 
Thing is, if we trade conley, gay, KO and clarkson and then make the playoff i dont think any of the hardcore pro tankers will “flame the board”
Maybe you can think of some posters who would? If so, you should pose the question and @ them to see how they would feel about a jazz team with no vets playing great. I bet they would be fine with it.

I think the pro tankers want management to tank as hard as they can but they dont expect sexton, ochai, lauri, kessler etc to go out there on the court and intentionally miss shots and play with no effort.


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Fair points.

How about if we end up in play-in and get eliminated?

Or if we dont trade all those guys?
 
Very much this. Relying on guys that won't be here for the next 3 years to win enough to hose our draft picks is not ideal. If the young guys do it then it means they are awesome.
I’m definitely of the “pro-tank” mindset - in that I want the team to trade players they’re not keeping long-term and accumulate as much draft capital as possible. DA has set this rebuild up perfectly, and if he nails things in the next few days it will greatly help the chances of building a contender.
 
Who said anyone should sit out the rest of the season?
Several people here, just look back a few pages. Yeah, some are calling to sit out on b2bs only. But then they're also calling to go 5-22 the rest of the way. Sitting out a couple of b2bs gets you probably one extra loss and doesn't move any needles.
 
Fair points.

How about if we end up in play-in and get eliminated?

For me... thats okay if we cashed in on some vets and did it with the younger guys.
Or if we dont trade all those guys?
Depends on what is on the table. If we only moved Vando at this point I'd be pissed. I think Vando and Malik is more likely what we see. If we had opportunities to move Mike for the Lakers deal and didn't do it cuz we were too greedy I'd be upset and think its a mistake.
 
Several people here, just look back a few pages. Yeah, some are calling to sit out on b2bs only. But then they're also calling to go 5-22 the rest of the way. Sitting out a couple of b2bs gets you probably one extra loss and doesn't move any needles.
We can't go 5-22 by planning but a few extra losses sitting guys very well could move the needle... if combined with a trade or two. That group is just so bunched up. last few games you can shut guys down or go to very low minutes as well. The margins are pretty thin here.

After a trade sitting out Lauri one game and JC another will lead to two losses. So maybe its only 2-3 games for each guy but those games are almost guaranteed to be losses.
 
I’m definitely of the “pro-tank” mindset - in that I want the team to trade players they’re not keeping long-term and accumulate as much draft capital as possible. DA has set this rebuild up perfectly, and if he nails things in the next few days it will greatly help the chances of building a contender.
Lets say they do trade all the vets or two of them. What makes you think Ainge is going to trade for a player or players that are worse ut paid the same?
I think it is highly unlikely Danny trades for a lesser player, just for yet another draft pick. Now he might trade for a player or players he thinks are being boxed in where they are, and will do better here. But that also makes the Jazz better not tanker worse.
 
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