Except that it happens all teh time.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
- Thread starter Ferguson_Mellochill
- Start date
It doesn't. Jaylen Brown is the closest thing, but he was the third pick in the draft and not exactly a draft steal and there are levels to being bad. I am positive you are going to make up your own version of what I mean, so I don't even know why I entertain this kind of post.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
Yeah, that's a typo. You're right, occasionally the team that doesn't have the most dominant player, but has more floor balance can win. The other example is Detroit in 2004. I could keep going with this exercise and show that 90% of the chips go to the MVP candidate's team.
framer
Well-Known Member
San Antonio won a lot of championships and that Dallas championship team had a talent deficit. The trick is, once you win a championship the "dominant player" title gets retroactively applied to you, which is fair, but not instructive. Curry wasn't a world beater until all of the sudden he was. Same with Kawaii.
Dirk Nowitzki was an MVP-level player and the most dominant scorer in that Dallas series vs. OKC.
San Antonio ran a unique system, but for three chips at least, Duncan was dominant. When SAS beat Cleveland, you could argue that Lebron was the most dominant player, but he had nothing else around him.
But true, you need a player who can dominate a series, rather than a perennial MVP necessarily. Looking at the Nuggets/Lakers game last night, Jamal Murray was most dominant in the 1st half and Jokic was most dominant in the 4th quarter.
Miggs
Well-Known Member
Lol at this guy’s stats. 30 minutes a game and 4.7 rebounds…under 10% trb. 0.5 block% for a guy with this length…3.9 assist %.
Hard pass.
These guys are probably my favorite 3 guys whom the Jazz could realistically draft. I like Keyonte George too, but I question his ability to translate to a lead, on-ball guard.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Tc42TTG1mA
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Tc42TTG1mA
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If you filter out GG's conference games (a league he was way too overmatched to play in at his age) he averaged shooting splits on 43/37 averaging 18 ppg.
While yes, it is hard to find blue chip Freshman (who have had great success at the NBA level) who played as poorly as GG did his Freshman year (Quentin Grimes is a name that comes to mind as he rises after having a very Freshman year), it's also hard to find a blue chip prospect who entered college an entire year early, played half their season at 17 years old, and played on one of the worst teams in one of the top conferences. I think it's fair to sparse out his easier games and use those as a positive indicator.
I get what you are saying, but it's just way too much of a risk for me at 9. At 16, I wouldn't love it, but I also would get it there.
Are we drafting GG to be a small usage, defensive role player like Grimes? I think GG can succeed, but not in the way he completely failed at in college. He will have to find another way like Grimes and McDaniels. I think most prospects look pretty amazing if you just ignored when they looked bad. But GG wasn't exactly Mr. Efficiency in non conference games either. He was better than his 44% TS in conference games at least, but the 45% on twos combine with the low FTr is not promising. He shot the ball well from 3 though, I like him as a spot up shooter and can buy into that as an NBA skill.
Usually we care more about when the competition is better, but if we're entertaining this idea that we just ignore the conference games many of my questions marks still persist. He has a low FTr, his assist to turnover ratio is comically bad, he was not special from a rebounding/stocks perspective, and while I didn't watch these games do we believe he was playing defense?
The SEC is a tough college basketball conference. The NBA is a million times harder.
Usually we care more about when the competition is better, but if we're entertaining this idea that we just ignore the conference games many of my questions marks still persist. He has a low FTr, his assist to turnover ratio is comically bad, he was not special from a rebounding/stocks perspective, and while I didn't watch these games do we believe he was playing defense?
The SEC is a tough college basketball conference. The NBA is a million times harder.
So because a 17/18 year old failed as a Freshman that defines his career? I get what you are doing, trying to be as general as possible, but these situations are more unique and complex so your whole schtick doesnt work. You cant paint everything with the same brush.
The one thing I keep coming back to with GG is his age and his size.
He will barely turn 19 halfway through his rookie season.
For comparison:
Wembanyama - will turn 20 halfway through his rookie season
Miller - will turn 21 halfway through his rookie season
Scoot - will turn 20 towards the end of his rookie season
Amen and Ausar - will turn 21 towards the end of their rookie seasons
Walker - will turn 20 at the beginning of his rookie season
Hendricks - will turn 20 at the beginning of his rookie season
Black - will turn 20 towards the end of his rookie season
Wallace - will turn 20 at the beginning of his rookie season
He’s a full year younger than pretty much everyone else. He will be a big 6’9 in shoes with almost a 6’11 wingspan.
He was basically a HS senior playing as a freshman in college. Averaging 15.4 PPG and 5.9 RPG in that setting is impressive even though his efficiency wasn’t great. He shot 36.2% on catch and shoot 3’s.
He was the #1 overall recruit in 2023 before reclassifying to the 2022 class.
Andrew Wiggins did the same thing almost a decade ago. Here is their per 40 numbers:
Wiggins
20.8 PPG
7.1 RPG
1.9 APG
1.4 SPG
1.2 BPG
44.8% from field
49.3% from 2
34.1% from 3 on 4.4 attempts
GG
19.3 PPG
7.4 RPG
1.1 APG
1 SPG
1 BPG
38.4% from field
41.9% from 2
32.4% from 3 on 6.7 attempts
Wiggins played for a far superior team and GG didn’t have a teammate anywhere near as good as Embiid to take some of the pressure off of him. Wiggins was also a full 2 months older than GG at the same time.
I’m definitely starting to see the potential and upside with him. I personally will give the edge to players with the HS pedigree if it is close.
He will barely turn 19 halfway through his rookie season.
For comparison:
Wembanyama - will turn 20 halfway through his rookie season
Miller - will turn 21 halfway through his rookie season
Scoot - will turn 20 towards the end of his rookie season
Amen and Ausar - will turn 21 towards the end of their rookie seasons
Walker - will turn 20 at the beginning of his rookie season
Hendricks - will turn 20 at the beginning of his rookie season
Black - will turn 20 towards the end of his rookie season
Wallace - will turn 20 at the beginning of his rookie season
He’s a full year younger than pretty much everyone else. He will be a big 6’9 in shoes with almost a 6’11 wingspan.
He was basically a HS senior playing as a freshman in college. Averaging 15.4 PPG and 5.9 RPG in that setting is impressive even though his efficiency wasn’t great. He shot 36.2% on catch and shoot 3’s.
He was the #1 overall recruit in 2023 before reclassifying to the 2022 class.
Andrew Wiggins did the same thing almost a decade ago. Here is their per 40 numbers:
Wiggins
20.8 PPG
7.1 RPG
1.9 APG
1.4 SPG
1.2 BPG
44.8% from field
49.3% from 2
34.1% from 3 on 4.4 attempts
GG
19.3 PPG
7.4 RPG
1.1 APG
1 SPG
1 BPG
38.4% from field
41.9% from 2
32.4% from 3 on 6.7 attempts
Wiggins played for a far superior team and GG didn’t have a teammate anywhere near as good as Embiid to take some of the pressure off of him. Wiggins was also a full 2 months older than GG at the same time.
I’m definitely starting to see the potential and upside with him. I personally will give the edge to players with the HS pedigree if it is close.
Uh no. I also see what you're trying to do, which is make up some statement that I did not say to make it easier to argue against. I specifically said he can make it. Your whole schtick is to directly ignore anything that you don't like.
I was really specific about what I don't like about GG. Do you need me to be more specific than to list out the things? I don't even know what that would look like but I guess listing those things out verbatim is too general and vague for you. You brought up this idea that conference games should not count because he was overmatched. In the non conference games many of those question marks were as present as ever.
I get the premise. His age explains why he is bad.....but why do we think he was good? I like his spot up shooting, as stated many times before. But beyond that I don't see many signs of life.
No, I very clearly state GG sucked last year. I dont ignore it. I fully understand it and i've been on that side of the fence of thinking about him. I just can use some context and my eyes to see the talent and skill level.
The funny thing is that GG isnt even that far away from being a good NBA player. He's a lot closer than most people think.
This is leaving out the thing Wiggins was best at, but who are we kidding, there is an incredibly massive gap between the two in their freshman year. Wiggins was second team all America.
That’s why Wiggins went #1 and why we are talking about GG in the 9-16 range. I definitely think GG would have better numbers if he played on a better team.
One played for Kansas and the other played for South Carolina
Well you are trying to make the case that we should ignore the bad part of the season. It's certainly a take to say we should ignore a portion of the season because he was clearly overmatched while also saying he is closer to being a good NBA level. Whatever floats your boat man.
If he is closer than we think, it is because his role player skills are much better than what he displayed. I'm open to that idea as I've said countless times now. I think if GG makes it, it just won't be in the version of him that we are imaging as the "high potential" scenario. If we are going to choose to ignore something, I would say we should ignore the number one option stuff and start thinking about how he can help an NBA team.