2023 NBA Free Agency Thread

[sip]

Everyone is overpaid. Right now he signed for superstar money, but every year these goalposts move and there are going to be more and more “non-superstars” getting this superstar money.

If George and Hendricks are good starters, then grabbing someone like Brown puts you in a great position to be your contending step.

George
Brown
Hendricks
Lauri
Walker

So we just magically trade for Brown without giving up George, Hendricks or Walker? Don't kid yourself.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Scoring numbers in the current NBA are inflated. He is also a solid defender but not a great defender. With Lauri we have another couple years to figure him out but I think his upside is higher than Brown.

Yeah, Lauri better. His contract is going to be massive when it happens.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I wouldn't love to pay Brown that money, but it's probably fine?

If they decided to move him mid-year they still get a **** ton for him. This is the price of doing business. He's just a highly flexible all-star and those guys are super valuable. People are focused on the dollars but its the same percentage of the cap that a supermax has always been. The sticker shock will wear off.

 

[sip]

I wouldn't love to pay Brown that money, but it's probably fine?

It says that he as a trade kicker as well which based on other trade kickers is usually 15%. A player can waive that but I highly doubt he does that to come to Utah so lets say we are talking about an insane salary number for a non superstar.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It says that he as a trade kicker as well which based on other trade kickers is usually 15%. A player can waive that but I highly doubt he does that to come to Utah so lets say we are talking about an insane salary number for a non superstar.

If Utah trades for him it would be down the line, not in the immediate future

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It says that he as a trade kicker as well which based on other trade kickers is usually 15%. A player can waive that but I highly doubt he does that to come to Utah so lets say we are talking about an insane salary number for a non superstar.

Trade kickers on max contracts are still limited to the max for the player. I doubt it comes into play really.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Some super weird posts on here. I swear I don’t know exactly what people think is good. If you aren’t Giannis or Jokic or Curry you’re not worth max money apparently.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Like no **** Lauri is better than Brown but he’s not significantly better to where it’s a no brainer to supermax him and not Brown.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Some super weird posts on here. I swear I don’t know exactly what people think is good. If you aren’t Giannis or Jokic or Curry you’re not worth max money apparently.

Brown fits like a glove on any roster with any star... even at this number... if they chose to move him they would have a line out the door.

 

[sip]

Like no **** Lauri is better than Brown but he’s not significantly better to where it’s a no brainer to supermax him and not Brown.

Lauri is unlikely to qualify for the supermax and after one season is definitely not a no brainer at this point. The good news is that if he qualifies for it then it means that he has taken his game to another level. With Brown I'm not so sure he has another level. He is a very good player but with a trade kicker you are talking about around 70mil a year and of the course the treasure trove of assets that you move for him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you were in on Brown at 30% (normal max) and out at 35% (what he got) then you were likely never really in on him. Ideally you pay less than 35% but can't always get guys perfectly paid. Paying 7-10M more per year on Brown is not what will "hamstring" Boston. Its having both Tatum and Brown AND paying $30M to the zinger, $20M a piece to Brogdon and White... and not really having the low cost contributors anymore. You can build a contender around Tatum and Brown even if they take up 70% of your cap space. You go into the tax, find budget pieces, and it isn't easy... but this is not the deal that will hamstring them imo.

 

[Fosto]

I get that Boston had to pay up, but I'm glad it's not the Jazz who are paying Brown 60m a year.

 

[Fosto]

If you were in on Brown at 30% (normal max) and out at 35% (what he got) then you were likely never really in on him. Ideally you pay less than 35% but can't always get guys perfectly paid. Paying 7-10M more per year on Brown is not what will "hamstring" Boston. Its having both Tatum and Brown AND paying $30M to the zinger, $20M a piece to Brogdon and White... and not really having the low cost contributors anymore. You can build a contender around Tatum and Brown even if they take up 70% of your cap space. You go into the tax, find budget pieces, and it isn't easy... but this is not the deal that will hamstring them imo.

Well, they also have KP. Between the three of them, they'll be eating up 100% of Boston's cap space.

 

[Udidthizz]

I don’t see Brown as a number 1 on a contender. His dribbling TO’s cost Boston dearly in the playoffs and Tatum is clearly their nr. 1. I’m also not convinced (yet) that Lauri is a number 1 on a contender. We’d have a lot of money tied up in 2 guys that are probably best suited to be a 2nd option on a contender.

 

[infection]

I don’t see Brown as a number 1 on a contender. His dribbling TO’s cost Boston dearly in the playoffs and Tatum is clearly their nr. 1. I’m also not convinced (yet) that Lauri is a number 1 on a contender. We’d have a lot of money tied up in 2 guys that are probably best suited to be a 2nd option on a contender.

How many guys in the league are real #1s on a contender? The problem is, once something becomes realistic you start getting cold feet. There are really just a couple guys that you can’t make some reasonable arguments about their flaws. And a lot of it is a survival bias. I’m nice you win, the perception changes.

 

[underdog]

Lauri is unlikely to qualify for the supermax and after one season is definitely not a no brainer at this point. The good news is that if he qualifies for it then it means that he has taken his game to another level. With Brown I'm not so sure he has another level. He is a very good player but with a trade kicker you are talking about around 70mil a year and of the course the treasure trove of assets that you move for him.

70 mill a year? Boston would pay the trade kicker bonus, not Utah, right?

 

[underdog]

I get that Boston had to pay up, but I'm glad it's not the Jazz who are paying Brown 60m a year.

Yeah a lot of dough, but he should have his best years ahead of him, time will tell if it’s too much. Here is the breakdown on his super max:

2024-2025 $52,368,085

2025-2026 $56,557,532

2026-2027 $60,746,979

2027-2028 $64,936,425

2028-2029 $69,125,872

Total $303,734,893

 

[underdog]

I don’t see Brown as a number 1 on a contender. His dribbling TO’s cost Boston dearly in the playoffs and Tatum is clearly their nr. 1. I’m also not convinced (yet) that Lauri is a number 1 on a contender. We’d have a lot of money tied up in 2 guys that are probably best suited to be a 2nd option on a contender.

I certainly think Lauri could be a number 1 on a contender team in his prime years (when he’s 27-30). He’s only 26 now. Jaylen Brown is entering his prime years, and he is also expected to get better. But most likely Brown will stay in Boston now for a while at least (unless he requests a trade at some point or Boston can’t succeed with his and Tatum’s contracts making the rest of the team too thin).

 

[LogGrad98]

Yeah a lot of dough, but he should have his best years ahead of him, time will tell if it’s too much. Here is the breakdown on his super max:

2024-2025 $52,368,085

2025-2026 $56,557,532

2026-2027 $60,746,979

2027-2028 $64,936,425

2028-2029 $69,125,872

Total $303,734,893

In-****ing-sane.

 

[infection]

I would also say that for a team like us to have a contending window, the length of a contract would be more important than the dollar figure. I’m not saying the dollar figure is irrelevant, but what I am saying is something like being anxious about your credit being hit refinancing your house because maybe you’ll buy a car later. A good interest rate on a car definitely makes a difference, but when you’re talking about a point or two on a $500-700k loan, it dwarfs a larger variance of interest rates on your $30-50k car loan. Paying a large amount for a high end player isn’t ideal, but having them under control for multiple years gives you a different type of flexibility that I’d find preferable to having a few million more of wiggle room in the cap. Yes, we should always look over these things carefully, but let’s not lose sight of the overall picture. We’re not going to get a Lexus roster on Toyota pricing.