2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[Bawse Dawg]

We’re talking about public consensus though.

We most definitely are not...

This conversation started by wanting to know what the actual teams thought of these players. Public consensus is informed by everything except that. Mock draft dudes online, draft 'intel' from media members that is often completely fabricated. Basically everything except what actual GMs are thinking.

I you go back through this conversation I think you'll see that it is very much about cutting thought he BS of the 'public consensus' and wanting to know how actual teams felt. And the Jazz gave us a bigger piece of info on that than we ever get in these scenarios.

 

[Elizah Huge]

We most definitely are not...

This conversation started by wanting to know what the actual teams thought of these players. Public consensus is informed by everything except that. Mock draft dudes online, draft 'intel' from media members that is often completely fabricated. Basically everything except what actual GMs are thinking.

I you go back through this conversation I think you'll see that it is very much about cutting thought he BS of the 'public consensus' and wanting to know how actual teams felt. And the Jazz gave us a bigger piece of info on that than we ever get in these scenarios.

If that is what you’re trying to find out good luck. Useless conversation to have without every team giving out their top-10.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

If that is what you’re trying to find out good luck. Useless conversation to have without every team giving out their top-10.

Yes, that is the point. We won't ever know for sure but the way the draft went it is obvious that NBA teams and 'public consensus' were not aligned.

So when you confirmed this:

It was definitely odd when they came out and said that. Like you said, I've never seen that said in any sport either.

I think it was actually considered a 9 man draft, but if you wanted to call it a 8 man draft Hendricks was absolutely included in the 8. The 9th guy would have been Cam. Bilal was a late riser. Hendricks was getting a lot of buzz at 5 and 6 IIRC.

This is correct.

Completely baseless claim as fact, you were really just talking about how mock drafts and sports books felt before the draft happened? That's super weird considering we are on the other side of the draft and it really happened and now we have actual evidence.

We could have saved many pages if you told me to go look at a mock draft the day before the draft and that's all the evidence needed for how teams felt about these players. My original post K responded to was about actual NBA teams and how they rated the players.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Yes, that is the point. We won't ever know for sure but the way the draft went it is obvious that NBA teams and 'public consensus' were not aligned.

So when you confirmed this:




Completely baseless claim as fact, you were really just talking about how mock drafts and sports books felt before the draft happened? That's super weird considering we are on the other side of the draft and it really happened and now we have actual evidence.

We could have saved many pages if you told me to go look at a mock draft the day before the draft and that's all the evidence needed for how teams felt about these players. My original post K responded to was about actual NBA teams and how they rated the players.

KqWIN said he "thinks this is what happened" and I said that is correct because I think the same. If you are being weird about me saying correct instead of agree I’m sorry. It would be ridiculous to claim that as a fact because nobody knows except GM’s.

 

[KqWIN]

Yes, that is the point. We won't ever know for sure but the way the draft went it is obvious that NBA teams and 'public consensus' were not aligned.

So when you confirmed this:




Completely baseless claim as fact, you were really just talking about how mock drafts and sports books felt before the draft happened? That's super weird considering we are on the other side of the draft and it really happened and now we have actual evidence.

We could have saved many pages if you told me to go look at a mock draft the day before the draft and that's all the evidence needed for how teams felt about these players. My original post K responded to was about actual NBA teams and how they rated the players.

Well, there is no such thing as "considered a x player draft" if not public. You will never know that. If you want to say baseless, well of course it's baseless in your context because everything is baseless. You can never know that answer, so I didn't even consider it worth talking about.

If you never meant it mean public consensus, by all means my mistake. But understand it is literally impossible to validate your claim as well which is why there is no purpose to discuss this. You could draw the line at literally any point and make the argument that this is a "x player draft" because a player was drafted there. You have no clue if the Jazz thought it was an 8 or 9 man draft and no clue what other teams thought. All we have is Zanik saying he was very happy that Hendricks fell to 9 (even though it's odd to say he's number 9). Yes it's odd that he said he was their last choice at 9, but that does not indicate he thought it was an 8 man draft.

And this is going to potentially upset people, but the public consensus and "the truth" or whatever are not mutually exclusive even if they are not the same thing.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Me:

I think it was common knowledge around the league that there was a drop off after #8 and we happened to have the ninth pick, it's the most Jazz thing ever, so shouldn't be surprising. What I'd be more curious to know is where other teams had Hendricks, did everyone see him as a top guy in that next tier? Or were opinions much more varied?

K:

I think it was actually considered a 9 man draft, but if you wanted to call it a 8 man draft Hendricks was absolutely included in the 8.

So I ask: How was Hendricks absolutely included in that 8? Based on what? When even with Cam falling he didn't go top 8 and the Jazz had no issue saying 'yea we liked everyone else better'.

Is your agreement with that theory purely because betting markets said so beforehand? And if so, can we admit they were dead wrong?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If you think that is 100% true you’re sorely mistaken. Often time lines move before the public knows why.

Betting lines move due to where bets are coming from. That's based off public perception. If the betting line has moved, it means someone (or a small group of individuals) went in and placed a huge bet that moved the line.

It gives us proof of nothing. The only facts we have are what actually happened.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Betting lines move due to where bets are coming from. That's based off public perception. If the betting line has moved, it means someone (or a small group of individuals) went in and placed a huge bet that moved the line.

It gives us proof of nothing. The only facts we have are what actually happened.

That is true some times but also they move when they get knowledge before the public (i.e. a player is out).

The books want even money on both sides so they can collect the juice on top.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

And I guess I'm being a dick. And it's definitely not that deep, but now I'm just so confused as to why this conversation even ever happened.

 

[KqWIN]

Me:


K:



So I ask: How was Hendricks absolutely included in that 8? Based on what? When even with Cam falling he didn't go top 8 and the Jazz had no issue saying 'yea we liked everyone else better'.

Is your agreement with that theory purely because betting markets said so beforehand? And if so, can we admit they were dead wrong?

My confusion is that by "around the league" you were actually talking about something that can never ever be determined. People say "around the league" as in the general reporting and understanding in NBA media. We cannot know knowledge around the league until it is reported. That's my mistake if you were referring to things not reported, but I do feel like it is a useless conversation. If it fits into your definition and not my definition, we cannot know it.

 

[Elizah Huge]

My confusion is that by "around the league" you were actually talking about something that can never ever be determined. People say "around the league" as in the general reporting and understanding in NBA media. We cannot know knowledge around the league until it is reported. That's my mistake if you were referring to things not reported, but I do feel like it is a useless conversation. If it fits into your definition and not my definition, we cannot know it.

This

 

[Bawse Dawg]

My confusion is that by "around the league" you were actually talking about something that can never ever be determined. People say "around the league" as in the general reporting and understanding in NBA media. We cannot know knowledge around the league until it is reported. That's my mistake if you were referring to things not reported, but I do feel like it is a useless conversation. If it fits into your definition and not my definition, we cannot know it.

Fair enough I thought the rest of the context in that post made it obvious. And I wasn’t asking for an actual answer just posting some thoughts.

I do find it weird to post pre draft public consensus as any kind of evidence of anything when that evidence is directly contradicted by what actually happened. So we are both a bit confused.

 

[KqWIN]

Fair enough I thought the rest of the context in that post made it obvious. And I wasn’t asking for an actual answer just posting some thoughts.

I do find it weird to post pre draft public consensus as any kind of evidence of anything when that evidence is directly contradicted by what actually happened. So we are both a bit confused.

The odds I posted were evidence of public consensus (which again is not mutually exclusive from non public opinion). I did not know you were talking about things that we do not know and cannot know. And again, it was my mistake, but I assumed what assumed because the other path is a useless talking point.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

The odds I posted were evidence of public consensus (which again is not mutually exclusive from non public opinion). I did not know you were talking about things that we do not know and cannot know. And again, it was my mistake, but I assumed what assumed because the other path is a useless talking point.

No one asked you to engage with me.... I wish you hadn't. I was posting some thoughts and musings, again bringing up how weird it was that the Jazz said he was #9 on their board, and had a theory based on that.

I'm sorry I brought up such a useless talking point that I never asked you to respond to. We all spent plenty of pre draft time in here and knew what the pre draft public consensus was. So your contribution was equally useless.

 

[Friend2bees]

I don't understand why it's a bad outcome to take the #9 guy on your board with pick #9. I guess there's an expectation that someone is going to fall past the pick you had them rated as? It seems foolish to me to operate assuming another team will make a mistake.

What draft spot does it start being a bad outcome to have no one fall and get the guy you had rated at your pick number? If you are picking 2nd and the guy you had rated #1 goes first, is it a bad draft to pick the guy you rated 2nd?

 

[Elizah Huge]

I don't understand why it's a bad outcome to take the #9 guy on your board with pick #9. I guess there's an expectation that someone is going to fall past the pick you had them rated as? It seems foolish to me to operate assuming another team will make a mistake.

What draft spot does it start being a bad outcome to have no one fall and get the guy you had rated at your pick number? If you are picking 2nd and the guy you had rated #1 goes first, is it a bad draft to pick the guy you rated 2nd?

Not a bad outcome but I think you should go get your guy. If the cost was too high that is one thing and would be understandable. It was just super weird to specifically say you drafted the 9th guy on your board at 9. No teams ever say that. They’ll normally say he was higher on our board than that, etc.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Fair enough I thought the rest of the context in that post made it obvious. And I wasn’t asking for an actual answer just posting some thoughts.

I do find it weird to post pre draft public consensus as any kind of evidence of anything when that evidence is directly contradicted by what actually happened. So we are both a bit confused.

Yeah we just would never get that it’s common knowledge among nba front offices that there was a drop off after 8, 9 or any number. I think there were a few tiers but I think Hendricks would have been in a similar enough tier on many big boards as guys like Walker, Dick, Cason, Bilal. I think the reason #9 sucked as a draft placement was not a fall off to the next tier but it was nearing the end of a tier so you’d get what was left. I would have had Taylor ahead of Walker and Bilal. I’d put Bilal above him at this point but that’s about it. I had him and Walker neck and neck and would probably be the same today… since Taylor is our dude I will continue to ride with him.

I think this board was likely on to Bilal earlier than the general draft public because of @KqWIN … I’d say we were higher on Taylor earlier as well. NBA media opinion on him ended up jumping to the same place many of us had him for months. Bilal though had one of the most unique rises in draft memory. His rise was like a rocket and it happened in different timing than normal.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Not a bad outcome but I think you should go get your guy. If the cost was too high that is one thing and would be understandable. It was just super weird to specifically say you drafted the 9th guy on your board at 9. No teams ever say that. They’ll normally say he was higher on our board than that, etc.

If we moved up I really liked Ausar and liked Black as well. If the price was one future pick I’d do it… but I’m old enough to remember a super genius who said they’d trade #9 and Ochai to move up and people around here freaked the hell out. Who’s doing Taylor and Ochai for Ausar? Would you add another pick? That would be my guess at what the price to move up was. I’d pay it cuz Ausar looks like a stud.

 

[KqWIN]

It’s too early for this, but let’s do it anyways. How high does Ausar go in an overreaction redraft? Scoot and Amen have been injured, but not good when they played. Miller has been ok…but maybe has more potential than Ausar?

I love watching Ausar play, but I think his touch might not be great. Not a believer in the shooting ever coming around but he might not need it to be an all star.

 

[Elizah Huge]

It’s too early for this, but let’s do it anyways. How high does Ausar go in an overreaction redraft? Scoot and Amen have been injured, but not good when they played. Miller has been ok…but maybe has more potential than Ausar?

I love watching Ausar play, but I think his touch might not be great. Not a believer in the shooting ever coming around but he might not need it to be an all star.

Ausar and Keyonte both go 2 or 3 in a re-draft.