Potential Trade Targets

[Handlogten's Heros]

That’s too bad then. It’s like fake news, Note to self.

Most of it is glorified blog posts.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

True unless perhaps a player option is involved. But DA hasn’t made any suggestion that he’s in the buyer’s market this season. Is B/R just grabbing this stuff out of thin air?

Yes, it's an opinion article, not a intel based article.

 

[HermanG]

@HermanG had some great quotes from Hardy as well about not wanting a vet pg. He would have direct intel from their time together. If we pass I'm comfortable knowing we had a lot of info.

I'm not sure its an attitude thing at all. I think its just something that happens when you go from a defensive "star" to an offensive "star". Offense is more fun and pays more most of the time. Like Mikal Bridges defense has slipped big time too now that he is doing more. I would expect a guy like Murray to have some slippage on defense but when you aren't locked in being really bad or completely inattentive is a red flag to me. Holding the ball a little too long is also a pet peeve of mine when watching or playing.

I think the Murray return to SAS is also a pretty flimsy rumor and more based on the logical fit rather than Spurs or Pops being actually interested in getting him.

And if two needy logical fit teams with coaching history on the guy say "no thanks" at the current price point (+upcoming contract), then I'm also pretty sure there is more than meets the eye here.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

Ochai window is still pretty huge. He has two more years on his roomie deal.

I'm not talking about his contract with the Jazz, I'm talking about his need to take a leap to be a productive NBA player and maybe stay in the league. The average NBA career is only 4.5 years per the NBA with most in the age range of 22-28 (most agree peak age is 27 with decline beginning after age 28). Drafted NBA players that have long careers have generally shown improvement for their first 5 years in the league, with a big leap between years one and two. After year 5/6, they start declining on average. With Ochai's age, he is already getting closer to the back half than the front half. Older players are more likely to be busts, as they just to improve as often.

The league has become more and more young-centric. Only 20% of players are in their 30's, an almost 50% decline since 2001. So while the Jazz have a decent window to assess him, from a statistical perspective, he likely doesn't have a lot of time to step up.

A few posters have noted that Walker is a liability on offense, and they are playing 4 on 5 unless it is a score at the hoop. Kessler is at 25% from 3 for the season and 50% over last 20, even though a small sample. I cringe when he shoots 3s, but sadly I don't have any more confidence in Ochai's shot of late.

Ochai is shooting 12/50 (24%) from 3 over his last 20 games (16% in January) after decent shooting in November. His overall 3 pt % has dropped 2% from last year (35 to 33), FT percentage has dropped over 5% and he has a -5.1 rating (-.2 last year). Minutes have remained at 20 per game between both seasons. His offensive rating dropped 4 points and his defensive rating has dropped from 114.5 to 115.2 (for those that have said his defense has improved from last year, although his 2pt defense and transition defense has been excellent). His is rebounding a bit better with about one more rebound per game. He had some good shooting in November which has kept his overall percentage decent, but not great. He is shooting 33% on catch and shoot, and all of his shots have been fairly open (no attempts when closely guarded). When a defender is within 2-4 feet of him, he is shooting 18.2% this year. His non-dunk paint shooting percentage (5-10 feet) is 14.9%.

For a 2nd year player, he is trending in the wrong direction. Hopefully he can start making upward strides. I don't think the Jazz should trade him now, because I think most GMs would look at his offensive performances and not want to give any assets for him.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I'm not talking about his contract with the Jazz, I'm talking about his need to take a leap to be a productive NBA player and maybe stay in the league. The average NBA career is only 4.5 years per the NBA with most in the age range of 22-28 (most agree peak age is 27 with decline beginning after age 28). Drafted NBA players that have long careers have generally shown improvement for their first 5 years in the league, with a big leap between years one and two. After year 5/6, they start declining on average. With Ochai's age, he is already getting closer to the back half than the front half. Older players are more likely to be busts, as they just to improve as often.

The league has become more and more young-centric. Only 20% of players are in their 30's, an almost 50% decline since 2001. So while the Jazz have a decent window to assess him, from a statistical perspective, he likely doesn't have a lot of time to step up.

A few posters have noted that Walker is a liability on offense, and they are playing 4 on 5 unless it is a score at the hoop. Kessler is at 25% from 3 for the season and 50% over last 20, even though a small sample. I cringe when he shoots 3s, but sadly I don't have any more confidence in Ochai's shot of late.

Ochai is shooting 12/50 (24%) from 3 over his last 20 games (16% in January) after decent shooting in November. His overall 3 pt % has dropped 2% from last year (35 to 33), FT percentage has dropped over 5% and he has a -5.1 rating (-.2 last year). Minutes have remained at 20 per game between both seasons. His offensive rating dropped 4 points and his defensive rating has dropped from 114.5 to 115.2 (for those that have said his defense has improved from last year, although his 2pt defense and transition defense has been excellent). His is rebounding a bit better with about one more rebound per game. He had some good shooting in November which has kept his overall percentage decent, but not great. He is shooting 33% on catch and shoot, and all of his shots have been fairly open (no attempts when closely guarded). When a defender is within 2-4 feet of him, he is shooting 18.2% this year. His non-dunk paint shooting percentage (5-10 feet) is 14.9%.

For a 2nd year player, he is trending in the wrong direction. Hopefully he can start making upward strides. I don't think the Jazz should trade him now, because I think most GMs would look at his offensive performances and not want to give any assets for him.

He's doubled his block/steal rate this year. His defense has improved. He's having a shooting slump. His shot is good and it should trend back up at some point. It's not like teams are daring him to take wide open shots, people are still respecting him.

I think Ochai will have at least a 8 year career. If the shooting doesnt get to another level he will be out once the athleticism drops.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I wonder if the Jazz could trade Dunn to the Bucks.

They have the Blazers 2024 2nd rounder and their own 2027 2nd rounder.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

He's doubled his block/steal rate this year. His defense has improved. He's having a shooting slump. His shot is good and it should trend back up at some point. It's not like teams are daring him to take wide open shots, people are still respecting him.

I think Ochai will have at least a 8 year career. If the shooting doesnt get to another level he will be out once the athleticism drops.

I think he stays in the league but does he stay as a surefire rotation player? I think the shot is going to come around but I think he mostly will be a corner pimp and don't believe much in his ability to be a movement shooter above the break anymore. That was his biggest opportunity to be a starter type player.

I think you keep him around unless you get a good offer... just wouldn't prioritize his development and would be looking for better version of what he does.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I wonder if the Jazz could trade Dunn to the Bucks.

They have the Blazers 2024 2nd rounder and their own 2027 2nd rounder.

I think they would do that. I don't know that we would or should as I think Dunn can be retained on a pretty favorable deal.

 

[sip]

I wonder if the Jazz could trade Dunn to the Bucks.

They have the Blazers 2024 2nd rounder and their own 2027 2nd rounder.

I would probably do that trade for the blazer pick and I think it makes sense for the bucks. Dunn would be a solid upgrade at pg over what they are currently putting out there.

 

[underdog]

@HermanG had some great quotes from Hardy as well about not wanting a vet pg. He would have direct intel from their time together. If we pass I'm comfortable knowing we had a lot of info.

I'm not sure its an attitude thing at all. I think its just something that happens when you go from a defensive "star" to an offensive "star". Offense is more fun and pays more most of the time. Like Mikal Bridges defense has slipped big time too now that he is doing more. I would expect a guy like Murray to have some slippage on defense but when you aren't locked in being really bad or completely inattentive is a red flag to me. Holding the ball a little too long is also a pet peeve of mine when watching or playing.

Remember what John Collins said at the beginning of the season about the lack of ego on our team and how "refreshing" it was to him after leaving the Hawks.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Remember what John Collins said at the beginning of the season about the lack of ego on our team and how "refreshing" it was to him after leaving the Hawks.

I think that was more a shot at Trae but could have been both.

 

[underdog]

I think that was more a shot at Trae but could have been both.

Yeah maybe both, or they have a bunch of them there.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think they would do that. I don't know that we would or should as I think Dunn can be retained on a pretty favorable deal.

What's teh point of keeping Dunn really?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What's teh point of keeping Dunn really?

He's helped us win basketball games and is a leader in the locker room. He's a vocal leader which is something needed. He's our best perimeter defender by a mile. He works well with our combo guards that suck at defense.

If they got both seconds I would get it but I think there is more value in keeping him and I think he may be like $5M ish type of dude.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

He's helped us win basketball games and is a leader in the locker room. He's a vocal leader which is something needed. He's our best perimeter defender by a mile. He works well with our combo guards that suck at defense.

If they got both seconds I would get it but I think there is more value in keeping him and I think he may be like $5M ish type of dude.

Yeah, if I was DA I would view him as a hindrance of seeing what the actual roster is and would want him off the team if I can get any kind of decent quality 2nd(s).

Bring in Lowry and promise him a starting job for the rest of the year after he gets bought out if toughness/leadership is that important for the rest of the season.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

When the team is playing well and everything is going to plan, Dunn is only playing the first stints of each half then not checking in again.

He's not part of any kind of future. We've bumped up his value. Hopefully someone like the Bucks or Suns see that and give us some decent 2nds for him.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

He's doubled his block/steal rate this year. His defense has improved. He's having a shooting slump. His shot is good and it should trend back up at some point. It's not like teams are daring him to take wide open shots, people are still respecting him.

I think Ochai will have at least a 8 year career. If the shooting doesnt get to another level he will be out once the athleticism drops.

The thing is, teams aren't respecting him, they are playing off of him. As his shot chart shows, he has taken zero 3s closely guarded (and 2.4% with a defender within 2-4 feet).

Here is the breakdown:
Ochai averages 3 three point attempts per game.

On average 1.7 of those are wide open (no defender within 6 feet). 1.1 are with a defender within 4-6 feet (open) and the remaining 0.2 within 2-4 feet. And the Jazz aren't running screens to get him open, they are having him sit on the wing/corner and his defender is sagging off of him. So basically he is taking the very large majority of his shots open and has shot 16% from 3 this month. Not a good sign.

If he doesn't improve his shooting his minutes will start dropping, and he won't get paid.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

When the team is playing well and everything is going to plan, Dunn is only playing the first stints of each half then not checking in again.

He's not part of any kind of future. We've bumped up his value. Hopefully someone like the Bucks or Suns see that and give us some decent 2nds for him.

He plays 22 minutes a night when he starts. His on-off splits are better than every other rotation player on the team... even Lauri. He can easily play at this level for another couple years. The seconds are solid ones but I prefer to keep Dunn. He helps smooth the edges out while our combo guards figure things out.

 

[underdog]

He's helped us win basketball games and is a leader in the locker room. He's a vocal leader which is something needed. He's our best perimeter defender by a mile. He works well with our combo guards that suck at defense.

If they got both seconds I would get it but I think there is more value in keeping him and I think he may be like $5M ish type of dude.

Agree. We should keep him, for now anyway. His value will probably become higher, and we need his defense. He also brings toughness, which we don't have enough.

 

[framer]

I would probably do that trade for the blazer pick and I think it makes sense for the bucks. Dunn would be a solid upgrade at pg over what they are currently putting out there.

There is probably less than a 5% chance you could get a player as good or better than Dunn with that pick. Unless Dunn has told you there is no way he is going to re-sign, you keep Dunn.