Should we go full rebuild?

[Saint Cy of JFC]

People get so baby brained when it comes to rebuilding. There's such a high level of anxiety that the Jazz will either never be a contender or they will be perpetually mediocre.

Just breathe. Enjoy the process.

 

[The Thriller]

Going full rebuild at this point would be an admission that we have had no idea what we were doing the last few years.

Did we have any idea what we were doing these last few years? Cuz I don’t think we did. We have assed a tank for nearly two seasons.

Why did we get John Collins again?

Why did we get rid of those awesome orange uniforms for the yellow highlighter?

 

[stitches]

Picking 6-10 is not a bad thing if you can actually draft.

The problem is not that you are picking 6-10. The problem is WHY you are picking 6-10!! The reason Sacramento were picking 6-10 for what seemed like... a decade+ was consistant string of bad decisions. And we are on our way for some of the same. Sure, we are still in the beginning of our rebuild and we haven't made nearly as many stupid moves as they did, but it's not like we haven't made any stupid moves... or moves that are not consistent with where we are as a team. When a lot of us were pointing last off-season that that John Collins trade was making no freaking sense when you look at the big picture of where this franchise is, people(including you) glossed over it. Well now we have 55M tied into a mistake for the next 2 years. Is this mistake going to sink us? No, not by itslef... but when you start stringing those type of moves year after year, yeah... they start building up.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Jazz fans are such spoiled babies. They ran a successful strategy that resulted in them being very successful in the draft (early returns at least) and we got people bitching so much about the ****ing process.

We have an insane amount of assets, a pair of very talented mid 20's players, and four promising early 20's players.

The fact that merely having Kelly Olynyk and Simone Fontecchio is what made this team a play-in team vs a tanker should give us fans a ton of hope.

Not to mention the fact that it would be pretty hard for Clarkson to have a worse season next year (if we keep him) and Collins should be a better player next year after having a year with the team. Same with Walker.

Or maybe the Jazz do a similar thing and sell pieces off at the deadline. I just find it so odd some posters are obsessed over the idea that the Jazz need a rigid plan.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The problem is not that you are picking 6-10. The problem is WHY you are picking 6-10!! The reason Sacramento were picking 6-10 for what seemed like... a decade+ was consistant string of bad decisions. And we are on our way for some of the same. Sure, we are still in the beginning of our rebuild and we haven't made nearly as many stupid moves as they did, but it's not like we haven't made any stupid moves... or moves that are not consistent with where we are as a team. When a lot of us were pointing last off-season that that John Collins trade was making no freaking sense when you look at the big picture of where this franchise is, people(including you) glossed over it. Well now we have 55M tied into a mistake for the next 2 years.

My position if I'm the Jazz is that we have no need for John Collins. He's owed 25 per year over the next 3 years unless he decides to decline his option in the final year, which at this point seems unlikely.

We just drafted his doppelganger in the NBA draft at 9. Why would we want to create a potential barrier to minutes for Hendricks?

We have no desire to move Kelly Olynyk. We love him and he's a great culture guy and a better player for our team than John Collins.

So in light of all this you have to blow us away for taking him on in a straight dump. If you want KO, that will cost even more.

We will consider adding Sexton if you meet our pick demands.

Yeah, I was never for trading for Collins.

After we got him I probably tried to glass half full it, but I was never pro getting Collins.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Thunder drafted Poku over Tyrese Maxey.

Your franchise can make some errors along the way and it's not the end of the world. The John Collins trade does not impact things all that much.

There is also still time for the trade to end up being a positive.

Collins is averaging 18-9 on great efficiency post ASB. Yes, that's during a time when the games dont matter for the Jazz, but in a proper 3rd big role he can replicate that in 25 mpg. Just got to hope Walker is ready to step up next year.

 

[stitches]

We don't know yet which course Ainge/Zanik decide to go but my gut feeling is they do what they need in order to potentially secure Flagg, Ace, Boozer, or Dybsanta in the '25/26 drafts. Ainge never needed to tank for draft position in Boston with those Nets picks but Utah is a different situation.

In a bizarro world maybe they luck into a top pick this year, draft Sarr, and he looks like the big time prospect Mobley seemed to be 2 years ago. Regardless they need to pick a direction and will likely need at least one major hit in the next few drafts with their warchest of picks. Doing the same thing next season, tanking after the deadline for the Flagg draft, cannot be an option.

They didn't do it for Wemby, why do we think they are going to do it for Flagg?

 

[whatthe]

Whatever mistakes are made in the rebuild I don't care as much as if you draft someone you should be able to trade them within a year or two even if you made a mistake or they are a bad fit. Easier said than done but that is what I would focus on, guys who exude upside even if they flounder for a year a two and that you can convince other teams that they still want them.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Like what if the Jazz actually just traded Lauri/Sexton last year and ended up getting the 3rd pick? We get Scoot Henderson and we are in a much worse position for the future despite doing the thing so many people here are clamoring for.

But instead they did what they did and now Sexton has a much higher value profile than he did this time last season. If we can successfully extend Lauri, his value goes up.

I get the idea of just playing the numbers in the draft and going for broke with high picks, but doing what the math says isnt always the best. There's more nuance in real life.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

My issue with the Jazz rebuild so far is mostly roster building related, but it's too early to be too critical since we don't know what the final product is going to look like. From rumors and what has actually happened it doesn't seem like the FO is too concerned about fit, just value. I think we are seeing that backfiring on us with the Collins trade.

I personally would prioritize two way players, and if anything have a team full of guys who can defend. Based on who we have drafted and what the FO has said they are prioritizing guys that can shoot. Not a huge deal, just not my preference or style of team I would prefer to watch.

 

[hgb]

No I got it.

You want them to make the playoffs making it harder to build a contender. I understand perfectly.

It does not necessarily make it harder, building a team is not an exact science. Building a contender is fine, but life is short and sports is all about having fun. Tanking and semi-tanking seasons are very ****ing far from fun. Obviously I don't want to sign a bunch of mediocre veterans with a long-term plan of puttering along making the playoffs or playins most years, I want to see a plan, but I want to execute that plan while being relatively competitive and hoping for wins.

The Jazz are in a pretty good spot now with lots of assets, and the draft has no guarantees, ever. Wemby looks great, but he still needs to stay healthy, and he's the only "can't miss" rookie in, what, since Lebron?

Also you have zero clue what being "a fan" means. The word might come from "fanatic" (I'm not really sure, to be honest, but you're probably right), but that's _not_ what it means. Check any dictionary.

 

[The Thriller]

My issue with the rebuild:

****** uniforms
****** coach
****** app (RMS was better)
****** product

And the billionaire owner wants taxpayers to build a new arena in Draper.

No thanks.

 

[KqWIN]

What's the timeframe for "in time"...

This is pretty much what bad franchises have been doing in the league for ages... they stock up with mediocre upgrades over their youth thinking they will be able to compete(at least for playoffs) then by mid-season they realize they are actually not good enough... so they turn to tanking. This is a failure of self-scouting and a failure of projecting your strength compared to your competition. In a lot of cases this is MUCH WORSE than actually purposefully tanking. Because when you tank with purpose, you actually have a plan and you can better maximize your assets and reset the timelines of expected contention. But when you are doing what we are doing, this is not a plan... this is a failure turned into a last resort. This was Sacramento's special for 15 years before their recent rise to semi-success. They think they can compete, they make stupid decisions incongruent with the big picture of their roster, they are wrong... turn into tanking half-way through the season. Pick 6-10 in perpetuity! Rinse and repeat.

I actually think the idea of "purposefully tanking" is highly overrated by fans and you can build from the middle. Realistically, we put too much emphasis on where we are drafting versus simply making good moves. However, my big gripe with what the Jazz are doing (half and half) is that they are limiting the rewards of anything we are doing. If we are actually trying to win something (I don't mean only championship), we get half a season of that and realistically cannot win anything for only competing half a season. Any winning is pretty much thrown in the can. If we are trying to tank for a draft pick, we cannot get a high lottery position by only doing it for half a season. If we forget about the draft and simply see playing time as a resource for development, we only get half of it by doing it for half the season. You're getting the worst of all worlds by doing half and half.

It may be true that the Jazz have squeezed some extra trade value by waiting until deadline 2x in a row (they may have lost value for all we know), but was it worth using up two seasons on? I feel like we didn't get the most out of these two off-seasons+deadlines. My request to the Jazz FO would be to decide to do something (any direction at all) and then do it. This half and half business has to end.

Like I said in my earlier posts, what they've done just hasn't inspired much confidence.

 

[KqWIN]

Like what if the Jazz actually just traded Lauri/Sexton last year and ended up getting the 3rd pick? We get Scoot Henderson and we are in a much worse position for the future despite doing the thing so many people here are clamoring for.

But instead they did what they did and now Sexton has a much higher value profile than he did this time last season. If we can successfully extend Lauri, his value goes up.

I get the idea of just playing the numbers in the draft and going for broke with high picks, but doing what the math says isnt always the best. There's more nuance in real life.

I don't think the Jazz need to operate in these extremes. They probably should have moved the old vets they moved at both deadlines in the summer. It's fine to keep the younger/unproven players and see what they may become, but for these vets where there are no questions about who they are as players....it's basically useless to have them half a year. I don't think the Jazz need to be rigid, they just need to stop doing half and half and thus limiting the effect/reward of anything they do.

 

[HermanG]

What's the timeframe for "in time"...

This is pretty much what bad franchises have been doing in the league for ages... they stock up with mediocre upgrades over their youth thinking they will be able to compete(at least for playoffs) then by mid-season they realize they are actually not good enough... so they turn to tanking. This is a failure of self-scouting and a failure of projecting your strength compared to your competition. In a lot of cases this is MUCH WORSE than actually purposefully tanking. Because when you tank with purpose, you actually have a plan and you can better maximize your assets and reset the timelines of expected contention. But when you are doing what we are doing, this is not a plan... this is a failure turned into a last resort. This was Sacramento's special for 15 years before their recent rise to semi-success. They think they can compete, they make stupid decisions incongruent with the big picture of their roster, they are wrong... turn into tanking half-way through the season. Pick 6-10 in perpetuity! Rinse and repeat.

Between 2003 and 2018 Nuggets and Bucks combined for 4 bottom 3 finishes in their conferences and 17 playoff appearances with only 1 of those 17 going beyond first round. That is the definition of being "mid".

They got into the tournament with over 50% success rate and fell in the first round almost 95% of the time. Bucks had 4 bottom 3 finishes while Denver had ZERO. Always at the bubble, or always exiting in the first round. I'm not gonna go check their closing records from the seasons when they were outside, but I bet they did late tanks as much as the rest. So 5-6 years ago you would have labeled them both in that "bad franchises" category, yet now they are recent champions coming from small markets.

Now your turn to provide evidence of a deep grinding tank leading to a championship. Minimum requirement could be say.... 3 consecutive years of picking in top 7?

PS:
During that same timeframe (2003-2018) Sacramento had 3 playoff appearances and 7 bottom 3 finishes in conference. So your logic holds absolutely no water. Both Nuggets and Bucks were 100x more mid than Sacramento.

 

[KqWIN]

We have got to stop looking at other franchises. Drafting Giannis/Jokic isn't a plan. We cannot model anything we've done after them. Same goes for OKC or any other situation you want to follow a step by step plan for. Stop looking for a blueprint, just make good moves and decisions plain and simple.

 

[stitches]

I actually think the idea of "purposefully tanking" is highly overrated by fans and you can build from the middle. Realistically, we put too much emphasis on where we are drafting versus simply making good moves. However, my big gripe with what the Jazz are doing (half and half) is that they are limiting the rewards of anything we are doing. If we are actually trying to win something (I don't mean only championship), we get half a season of that and realistically cannot win anything for only competing half a season. Any winning is pretty much thrown in the can. If we are trying to tank for a draft pick, we cannot get a high lottery position by only doing it for half a season. If we forget about the draft and simply see playing time as a resource for development, we only get half of it by doing it for half the season. You're getting the worst of all worlds by doing half and half.

IMO the root cause for the half and half are the decisions made in the summer. Thus the real culprit here is the original idea/plan of the FO. What in fact is happening is - they have some idea about how the new additions/retentions will make us competitive and they go for it without much regard for where we are in the rebuilding process. They don't care that they are relegating a freshly drafted top 10 pick to the G League from the get go. All they care about is the few more games we will win with Collins and Olynyk. So ... December/January comes and we are nowhere... the highly prized rookie is deprived of opportunities to grow with your highly regarded HC, the new additions have surprisingly not made you a contender and now you are left with 2 options - do you continue going for it fighting against the likes of AD and LeBron or Steph/Draymond/Klay for a playing... or try to salvage your pick. And I absolutely agree with you here - neither is a great option. Both are on the low end of rewards you could get for the path chosen. But again - the seeds have been sown in the summer. That's the real problem. What you do in the winter is less consequential... UNLESS... you follow it next summer with moves that go against what you just did(like... sell off the vets in January... only to replace them with new vets in July... but this time probably even crappier vets).

It may be true that the Jazz have squeezed some extra trade value by waiting until deadline 2x in a row (they may have lost value for all we know), but was it worth using up two seasons on? I feel like we didn't get the most out of these two off-seasons+deadlines. My request to the Jazz FO would be to decide to do something (any direction at all) and then do it. This half and half business has to end.

Like I said in my earlier posts, what they've done just hasn't inspired much confidence.

I'm not even sure they've maximized the value they've gotten. Maybe they have. I just don't think there is some plan or even direction we are going, I think they've allowed themselves to be thrown around by currents whatever way the winds are blowing in that particular moment. And I agree... I was really impressed by the two moves they did with Gobert and Mitchell... but after that... not much has inspired confidence.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We have got to stop looking at other franchises. Drafting Giannis/Jokic isn't a plan. We cannot model anything we've done after them. Same goes for OKC or any other situation you want to follow a step by step plan for. Stop looking for a blueprint, just make good moves and decisions plain and simple.

These aren't the model so much as examples of how it can work building in the middle. Lots of ways to get there... tanking, middle build, build a super team, etc. but they all fail way more often than they work. You have to make good moves and you also have to get really luck. Whether that luck involves a 6% chance at #1 hitting or nailing a pick in the late lotto like an SGA, Haliburton, or Giannis or whether that involves nailing a second round pick like Green and Jokic... It all requires lots of luck so do whatever you can to increase the odds of that luck through smart management. In reality you need to hit on 2-3 things that are like top 5% outcomes of a given transaction to end up being a title team. I think Boston is the team that has done the most with the least amount of "luck".

Its all so hard and the margin for error is so low if you want to win a title. Anyone that says "this is the only way" is wrong. Some ways may be more predictable or reliable than others but they are all unpredictable and unreliable so chose your gamble however you want imo.

 

[KqWIN]

IMO the root cause for the half and half are the decisions made in the summer. Thus the real culprit here is the original idea/plan of the FO. What in fact is happening is - they have some idea about how the new additions/retentions will make us competitive and they go for it without much regard for where we are in the rebuilding process. They don't care that they are relegating a freshly drafted top 10 pick to the G League from the get go. All they care about is the few more games we will win with Collins and Olynyk. So ... December/January comes and we are nowhere... the highly prized rookie is deprived of opportunities to grow with your highly regarded HC, the new additions have surprisingly not made you a contender and now you are left with 2 options - do you continue going for it fighting against the likes of AD and LeBron or Steph/Draymond/Klay for a playing... or try to salvage your pick. And I absolutely agree with you here - neither is a great option. Both are on the low end of rewards you could get for the path chosen. But again - the seeds have been sown in the summer. That's the real problem. What you do in the winter is less consequential... UNLESS... you follow it next summer with moves that go against what you just did(like... sell off the vets in January... only to replace them with new vets in July... but this time probably even crappier vets).


I'm not even sure they've maximized the value they've gotten. Maybe they have. I just don't think there is some plan or even direction we are going, I think they've allowed themselves to be thrown around by currents whatever way the winds are blowing in that particular moment. And I agree... I was really impressed by the two moves they did with Gobert and Mitchell... but after that... not much has inspired confidence.

I just don't know how they expected this season to go. I'm pretty sure I said this in the presesason expectations thread, but I expected exactly what happened to happened. We had a team that was scratching the play in at best, and I believed that we would once again quit half way through and tank because that's what this team was set up to do entering the season. Is this what the FO wanted all along? Did they expect us to be better than this? How good would we have had to have been to not do a complete pivot? Or did they just have no plan at all the whole time.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

The most frustrating part of the last two years is that the second half of each season has been 100% all in on tanking. But neither season has started that way, meaning we can't even get close to the top 5 of lottery odds, despite easily being bottom 5 teams by the end of both years.

This year it made a bit more sense, see what we have, it is a bad draft anyway. I wonder if anyone really knew how much losing Simone and Olynyk would hurt. But regardless at the end of the season you have players who thought they were competing for the play-in lose every single game for the last few months instead which can't be good for morale, and you still don't sniff the top 5 anyway.

Last year was much more egregious with Wemby sitting there, and a very obvious direction to go in. Starting the season with Conley on the roster was malpractice. I am convinced that Ainge thought we would suck anyway and when we started hot he just completely froze until the trade deadline. It ended up being a really poor half assed plan. We can only hope we salvaged three rotation level players out of the draft anyway.

I really have no clue how you move forward. The team will have gotten incrementally better the last two seasons just by adding 6 first round picks and young players growing a bit. Add in Lauri, and Flagg seems like an impossibility for next year. But the team might not even make the play-in if they max out the other way either.

IDK, on the one hand the path to contention is simple. We just need to somehow get a top 10 player in the league with a pick not in the top 5. Which is really not uncommon, that can be done. And we'll have a ton of bonus shots at the dart board to do it too. But it's just not something you can expect or assume will happen. So instead it just feels kind of rudderless, and like we are just hoping something falls into our laps miraculously.

Personally, I'm ready to just be interested in watching the team again. And being moderately competitive for a playoff spot, and having exciting young talent to root for would be more than enough. So hit some draft picks, become a fun team and I'll be there. This season and last doesn't do it for me though. At the start of the year seeing Keyonte, Hendricks, and Brice all start would have been a dream. It's been happening and I haven't seen a second of it. I have just had no interest in watching the team since the all star break at all. And I end up just getting interested again in draft season.