We have been apart on this the entire draft cycle, brother. I think Rob's very best case scenario is Lou Williams, and that's if he hits 100 percent. I think he's the worst defensive player in the first round of the draft, and that's saying something because Knecht and Edey are in the same draft. I don't even think Rob is a point guard. I just think he's a tiny guy who can score.
2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread
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Who wants to bet Tony a steak dinner?
I don’t think Lou Will is 100th percentile for Rob, but probably still a good representation of a higher end outcome.
Half of these first round guys won’t become bonafide NBA players. Always got to remember the reality of draft outcomes. I really think people ought to stop comparing everyone to superstars.
Half of these first round guys won’t become bonafide NBA players. Always got to remember the reality of draft outcomes. I really think people ought to stop comparing everyone to superstars.
If I compared a player to Kendall Gill, would anyone know what on earth I'm talking about or what point I'm trying to make?
You know I respect your opinion a lot but I just respectfully disagree. I think Lou Wil is more of a middle outcome.
I think you missed the point of ceiling or absolute best case outcome. That means if everything went right for this player (which odds are low for that anyways).
Who do you think is his ultimate outcome?
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
i mostly agree. I think middle to high. i said earlier that dillingham is my best bet to be an all star out of this draft. my issue is that despite putting up all star numbers, like most small guards, even if he hits his ceiling and is scoring 25-30 ppg, his impact on winning, especially in the playoffs, will be limited. he'd be fun to draft, he'd be fun to have on your team for a time, but he's one of those guys that once it becomes clear you can't win with him as your best player, you look to trade him.
in short, i'd be thrilled if the jazz were to take him.
At one point I thought he might be the best offensive prospect in the draft...though I've soured on him quite a bit. His size is one thing, but his finishing around the hoop was not great and he didn't get to the FT line a ton. Really tough living in the NBA. That being said, I really don't know who is a better offensive prospect. Nobody in this draft is without questions.
With the 10th pick in the draft, I don't think you need to worry about the "can you win with him as your best player". If you have a player that even begins that conversation you've overachieved by a lot.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
amen. agree on all counts, though i may be a bit more bullish on him as a scorer. i think we need to be careful judging 18/19 year olds on a 30 game sample of how good or bad they were at the rim or other similar metrics. i get it, i mean, it's all we have and we can only use the data we have, but while i won't dismiss them completely, i take some of those metrics mostly with a grain of salt.
The ones that you want to be having discussions with sure would.If I compared a player to Kendall Gill, would anyone know what on earth I'm talking about or what point I'm trying to make?
Eh....some numbers/metrics stabilize relatively quickly and don't have as much variance. With Dillingham, I also think finishing at the basket is automatic question mark because he will be one of the smallest players in the league. If he was at least able to leverage his small stature into FT's, like Lou Will did, that would be one thing. Another way to say this is that I'm worried about his size and the numbers (regardless of how much you want to dismiss them) also say I should be worried about his size. It would be different if it he had one thing or another going for him....but all signs point to this being a big concern.
I feel good about my Antonio Daniels/Stephen Castle comp as a lower-end range. I appreciate(d) how DX did their comps that way.
Yeah, if the fallback prospect you draft is mostly empty calories that you get your value back (or better?) later, that’s pretty good in a ****** draft.
I see 0% chance Dillingham is a better player than Collin Sexton.