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Should Cody spend time in the G LEAGUE

Should Cody Williams get sent down to the Stars for a stint?

  • Total voters
    60
KqWIN said:
Don't know how specific you would like to be, but the idea of BPM is to use box score numbers to predict APM (adjusted plus minutes). Can get more detailed if you'd like, but that's the important part. I don't necessarily know what was so unique about Cody's situation at COL, but nothing really jumps out as a reason to think his situation was extra favorable or unfavorable.
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I just know that BPM is team adjusted and Cody had a smaller role on a team filled with older players. I thought maybe that could have made that stat look worse for him.
 
HadAnEffectHere said:
This is an example done with LeBron.

View attachment 17669

It is then adjusted for position and role (to reduce the BPM of ball handlers) and subtracted by around 8.

Basically, BPM really hated that Cody Williams made few threes, got few blocks or steals or rebounds, and had a lot of turnovers and didn't have high volume scoring.

These coefficients are taken from a regression using RAPM as the dependent variable and the box score statistics as the independent variable to try to determine how valuable getting a stat in each is.
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Thanks. I don't think it's accurate to say Cody was bad in college. He was efficient in a small role. I think it's more fair to say that because his role was so small we had to guess more on his projections in the NBA. Because his role was so mall he didn't pop out as a talent outlier via BPM which should have been a red flag.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
With his shot coming in broken and his body not ready, he can't currently do anything positive offensively on the court. I suppose if he figures his shot out at some point you can start playing him and getting him defensive reps.
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Cody did have a couple of steals late in the 4th quarter of the Stars OT loss so there's that.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I just know that BPM is team adjusted and Cody had a smaller role on a team filled with older players. I thought maybe that could have made that stat look worse for him.
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More good players is more people who take the credit, but there should be more credit to go around. Should be a wash. Cody's BPM wasn't low because of his role/usage or his team, it's because he is basically a zero stats player outside of scoring.

Compared to all college players, Cody was a good player. Compared to first round prospects, he was easily one of the worst performers. Not only was his BPM one of the lowest, but his RAPM was one of the lowest. So both the box score numbers and the pure +/- would indicate that he was poor relative to his peers.
 
HadAnEffectHere said:
3.9 BPM is absolutely horrific for a first-round pick, one of the worst BPMs of any player picked in the top 10 ever.
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Yeah, it's not great, or even good, but it's not horrendous. And his lack of production doesnt really have to do with advanced stats currently. He just needs to put the ball in the hoop at a not awful rate.
 
It seems to me that an Association player needs to be able to make a 15-19 foot open shot at a 65 to 70 percent rate to keep defenses honest. That's just stats over the years. Cody appears to be miles from that at the moment.
 
FWIW BPM doesn't seem to be highly correlated with NBA success. Does anyone have any real data on this?

Looking through previous draft classes and there are some funny examples like Anthony Edwards with a 5.5BPM and James Wiseman with an 18.0 BPM. There aren't many prospects that had a lower BPM than Cody, but I did find Jaden McDaniels with a BPM of 2.6.
 
NBA decides to have a complete redraft tomorrow with all the guys that were draft eligible for the 2024 draft. Where is Cody picked (approximately)?

I'm going to be patient, but man he needs to get his head right quickly. This is far beyond the Ochai/Taylor levels of meh production. Get him squared away or just start whatever his offseason weight gain and training program is going to be cuz at some point getting your *** kicked in the G is not helping.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Thanks. I don't think it's accurate to say Cody was bad in college. He was efficient in a small role. I think it's more fair to say that because his role was so small we had to guess more on his projections in the NBA. Because his role was so mall he didn't pop out as a talent outlier via BPM which should have been a red flag.
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he was really bad the last half of february and in march - he wasn't efficient and he disappeared. it was that time feb/march time frame that scared me away. it was a combination of being bad and doing nothing - which is essentially what he's been since then.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
he was really bad the last half of february and in march - he wasn't efficient and he disappeared. it was that time feb/march time frame that scared me away. it was a combination of being bad and doing nothing - which is essentially what he's been since then.
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He did have a string of injuries that explained the bad play. He had enough standout games against PAC12 schools to convince you he had talent.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
FWIW BPM doesn't seem to be highly correlated with NBA success. Does anyone have any real data on this?

Looking through previous draft classes and there are some funny examples like Anthony Edwards with a 5.5BPM and James Wiseman with an 18.0 BPM. There aren't many prospects that had a lower BPM than Cody, but I did find Jaden McDaniels with a BPM of 2.6.
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Didn’t Wiseman play like 2 games? lol.

You can’t draw a direct line from BPM to NBA, but that’s the case with any number. BPM just happens to be a more comprehensive number that reflects total performance. We know that the best college players =\= the best NBA players, but the fact is that his performance in college was low compared to his peers.

And again, you don’t really have to use BPM. He was an efficient scorer in a medium sized usage role….thats about it. All his peripheral numbers were extremely low. On paper he was not a good prospect.

FWIW, there was a tweet(I think I may have posted it) that showed low BPM guys in the last 10 drafts on the top 10. It’s Jaylen Brown and like 6 busts.

I also remember an older post that analyzed the opposite with high BPM players. I’ll try to dig it up.
 
First the regular disclaimer - too early, yada-yada...

I was lower on Cody than most here, but at the end I think peer pressure made me move him up to about where we picked him. I think it was a mistake on my part. Pretty much everything I was worried about with him has turned out to be a real problem in the league as well. And while some of the things I was worried about have a reasonable chance of getting better(he might fill out his body, might get stronger...), the biggest worry for me when I watched him in college was just how passive he was. I think it's incredibly hard to change that part of a player's game at a higher level when he wasn't able to do it at lower levels. Just way too many leaps to be made and it's too hard to do when in pro sports, teams have to juggle priorities that are very far from making the 10th pick more aggressive and investing the reps to make a meaningful progress when there are 15 other players on the team that demand their own minutes and attention. And to add to it... it's not as simple as just making him more aggressive... you have to develop his skills and his body for this forced aggression to actually materialize into something positive for the team.

So in light of that, I think him spending time in the GLeague is a good decision at this point. But I still am not sure that I see much of any progress right now. I guess, lets hope with time and reps he gets better... not much else we can do...
 
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