2024-2025 Tank Race

[KqWIN]

Not familiar with ADP -- please inform me what this means.

average draft position

 

[underdog]

Humans can't process probability well, it's why I have a job and also why my job is being taken over AI Having said that, I think a big argument for tanking is that there often isn't much incentive to not tank. There's really no point to having players that are non-essential to the future. I think for guys like Lauri and Walker, it's more clear that it's worth whatever tanking cost they are worth (though Lauri's contract is getting sketchy). It would depend on the trade package return for them. But for guys like John and Sexton, you have to ask that question as to what their future is beyond their current deals. As you're tanking, their winning value is strictly negative. I don't look back at many of the vets we traded and think we made a mistake and wish we still had them. The opposite is true, I wish we traded them earlier.

One of the reasons why I liked this roster going into the year is that I don't think we had much non-essential personal. Everyone was either a young player, a player that will be good for the distant future, or a bad salary that would cost something to get rid of. In other words, everyone had a purpose and/or reason for being on the team. Only issue with how it's played out IMO is that we have basically nerfed Sexton's trade value. If that was the plan, he should have already been gone. I don't really see a future for him here beyond his current deal (and he's easily replaceable), so I'd consider him a player with no purpose on this roster.

BTW, we should include ADP in this calculation, not just the #1 pick odds if we're going to be so specific about what we should consider. ADP is still very close, much and much tighter than people realize IMO, but we should be fair on both sides. Odds at #1 is not the only reason why a higher lotto position is more valuable.

Yeah, we need to trade Sexton before the trade deadline. He isn’t a piece for our next contending team, and now that we’re tanking this season, this makes even more sense. I hope Danny finds a trading partner.

 

[idiot]

For this particular draft I think there are 2 or 3 players worth tanking for, so the difference in odds between the top 3 and 5th best odds at a top 3 pick is 8.5%. Then, as Numberica said, you have to factor in the difference in the worst case scenario as well. I'm not sure there is a huge difference at the moment between the 4th best prospect and 8th best prospect, but you obviously want the first pick of that group and there could be more separation between those prospects as the draft gets closer.

On the other hand there is opportunity cost of holding on to players you don't plan on keeping long term. I broke out some of those considerations in another post.

FWIW, I think that in general I agree with your overall stance that we shouldn't just firesale our vets to lose a couple of more games.

So this is a difference that matters mathematically once every (just under) 12 years. Not totally insignificant. But not very likely to turn out to affect this year (not that we'd ever know which particular year it affects).

On the rest, I agree. It's always trying to figure out where your odds (not only lottery odds) will put you in the best situation.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So this is a difference that matters mathematically once every (just under) 12 years. Not totally insignificant. But not very likely to turn out to affect this year (not that we'd ever know which particular year it affects).

On the rest, I agree. It's always trying to figure out where your odds (not only lottery odds) will put you in the best situation.

It depends on if we are doing a one or two year tank too. If they think this is a two year process (which they probably should by now) then moving off of Sexton/Collins benefits us in a couple years. While the difference between 4 and 6 may not be huge this year... it might be significant next year... in addition to the additional shot at landing 1/2.

If it hits... it can change everything. So you weigh the opportunity costs appropriately. If we get something on the back end that obviously matters too.

I change my mind everyday on what to do with Collin. I don't think he's as replaceable as some. He may not be as special as I think. I just hate managing this and at some point pulling back the reigns on these guys costs them real money and that's kinda ******... for him and John with how they have embraced the team and done what's right... you have to consider doing right by them too... at least a little.

 

[idiot]

average draft position

So with the numbers I've been playing with, ADP is a difference between 3.7 and 5.0 for the worst vs. 5th worst record. Approximately the difference between getting Kasp or Bailey (depending on who you like least) vs Edgecombe or Tre Johnson (or whoever else you prefer)?

 

[SoberasHotRod]

So this is a difference that matters mathematically once every (just under) 12 years. Not totally insignificant. But not very likely to turn out to affect this year (not that we'd ever know which particular year it affects).

On the rest, I agree. It's always trying to figure out where your odds (not only lottery odds) will put you in the best situation.

8.5% is not a huge number, I didn't mean for anyone to have that as a takeaway. I guess my mind processes things differently, but thinking in years is not helpful for me. The percentages are good enough. For others it might be though.

 

[idiot]

It depends on if we are doing a one or two year tank too. If they think this is a two year process (which they probably should by now) then moving off of Sexton/Collins benefits us in a couple years. While the difference between 4 and 6 may not be huge this year... it might be significant next year... in addition to the additional shot at landing 1/2.

If it hits... it can change everything. So you weigh the opportunity costs appropriately. If we get something on the back end that obviously matters too.

I change my mind everyday on what to do with Collin. I don't think he's as replaceable as some. He may not be as special as I think. I just hate managing this and at some point pulling back the reigns on these guys costs them real money and that's kinda ******... for him and John with how they have embraced the team and done what's right... you have to consider doing right by them too... at least a little.

I don't disagree with any of this. But we also need to factor in how unlikely it is to "win" the tank (not the lottery, but rather just the worst or worst few records). We're having real trouble this year. What is there to make us think that next year will be any easier?

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I don't disagree with any of this. But we also need to factor in how unlikely it is to "win" the tank (not the lottery, but rather just the worst or worst few records). We're having real trouble this year. What is there to make us think that next year will be any easier?

The risk of a failed tank next year is even worse than this year with the protections on that pick only being top 8 protected vs top 10. That fact could decentivise the FO from trying to be bad, or incentivise them to try even harder.

 

[idiot]

8.5% is not a huge number, I didn't mean for anyone to have that as a takeaway. I guess my mind processes things differently, but thinking in years is not helpful for me. The percentages are good enough. For others it might be though.

I guess I like years because it helps me put into perspective how often a certain event is likely to be affected. And it helps remind us that the draft lotto only happens once a year. We don't have unlimited rolls of the dice to fool around until something turns up in our favor.

Maybe another analogy is useful. At the end of the game down one point, how many seconds are you willing to waste trying to foul an 81.25% foul shooter rather than an 82.75% foul shooter? When the numbers look like that (1.5% apart) we're willing to say they're pretty much the same and not care which player we foul. But when the difference in odds between #1 and #4 worst records are 1.5% for getting the #1 pick, we somehow imagine that this is a big, important difference worth doing all manner of team degrading to achieve (I exaggerate, but maybe only a bit?).

 

[idiot]

The risk of a failed tank next year is even worse than this year with the protections on that pick only being top 8 protected vs top 10. That fact could decentivise the FO from trying to be bad, or incentivise them to try even harder.

Yeah, we'll either need to aim for 5th worst (at "worst"), or just try to win.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I don't disagree with any of this. But we also need to factor in how unlikely it is to "win" the tank (not the lottery, but rather just the worst or worst few records). We're having real trouble this year. What is there to make us think that next year will be any easier?

They could (theoretically) trade Lauri (they can’t this year). He’s got to play better in the interim (although it is also paradoxical to tanking philosophy)

 

[Tanktastic]

It depends on if we are doing a one or two year tank too. If they think this is a two year process (which they probably should by now) then moving off of Sexton/Collins benefits us in a couple years.

It is impossible to put a timeframe on tanking. Or if you do, then it's not tanking, but something else.

You have to hit on a pick. That might happen next summer, or the summer after that, or in four years, or in six. Or it might not happen at all. Or the owner's / fans' patience runs out before then.

You can't stop tanking before you hit on a pick and get a player that will take you to the Finals, or at least in realistic contention.

What if the Jazz tank as they're doing for this season for two more years after that and have nothing but the same quality of young players on their roster that they have now? Stop tanking? What was it all for then?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It is impossible to put a timeframe on tanking. Or if you do, then it's not tanking, but something else.

You have to hit on a pick. That might happen next summer, or the summer after that, or in four years, or in six. Or it might not happen at all. Or the owner's / fans' patience runs out before then.

You can't stop tanking before you hit on a pick and get a player that will take you to the Finals, or at least in realistic contention.

What if the Jazz tank as they're doing for this season for two more years after that and have nothing but the same quality of young players on their roster that they have now? Stop tanking? What was it all for then?

Its not impossible lol. You can decide to do something and then... for whatever reason... change your mind. Say there is an opportunity to acquire Giannis but they only got the 4th pick in the draft. If they decide to move picks and get Giannis did they tank the last year and a half? Yes.

If they go two more years and wind up with say the 5th pick in each draft... in 2027 they may decide to start making acquisitions. They may or may not have "the guy" at that point but they may decide its enough and their own pick is no longer going to OKC and they will have 3 other teams picks to add young talent.

I just don't think DA thinks concretely about plans in more than a 1-ish year window. He may have other paths the plan can take after that but he's going to follow the opportunities. I think in this case it makes a meaningful difference in if you think you should trade guys like Sexton/Collins/maybe even Walker as they are signed for two years and them playing well is good but may counteract your main goal.

But just because the tank didn't yield "the man" doesn't mean it has to continue in perpetuity, or it wasn't a tank. It just wasn't a very successful tank. It happens. Suns traded for sure-thing stars and that hasn't worked out... if they decided to trade KD for draft picks it doesn't mean they weren't building by trading for stars.

DA isn't Hinkie in that he will just continue to let us suck every year until he feels he has the guys. I think he thinks this is more a short term type thing whether that is right or wrong who knows.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The risk of a failed tank next year is even worse than this year with the protections on that pick only being top 8 protected vs top 10. That fact could decentivise the FO from trying to be bad, or incentivise them to try even harder.

Which is part of the reason I think they should be thinking of this more long term than they might be. I mean are we really going to manage Collin, Lauri, Walker, Collins all again next year?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No Lauri, Collins, Clarkson, Juzang... and Collin Sexton decided to finally take a game off due to rest. We are really trying and I'm proud of us.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

No Lauri, Collins, Clarkson, Juzang... and Collin Sexton decided to finally take a game off due to rest. We are really trying and I'm proud of us.

This will be the Brandon Boston v. Cody Williams matchup that everyone wants to see.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This will be the Brandon Boston v. Cody Williams matchup that everyone wants to see.

Brandon Miller V Williams.

 

[fishonjazz]

It is impossible to put a timeframe on tanking. Or if you do, then it's not tanking, but something else.

You have to hit on a pick. That might happen next summer, or the summer after that, or in four years, or in six. Or it might not happen at all. Or the owner's / fans' patience runs out before then.

You can't stop tanking before you hit on a pick and get a player that will take you to the Finals, or at least in realistic contention.

What if the Jazz tank as they're doing for this season for two more years after that and have nothing but the same quality of young players on their roster that they have now? Stop tanking? What was it all for then?

Sure you can put a timeframe on it. You don't have to tank until you hit on a pick.
Part of tanking is having low salary (poor players and young players make less money) and lots of picks so at any point that you see an already established star that will be getting traded (or who seems gettable in free agency) you can pivot and flush the tank and start trying to win again.
There isn't a rule book for tanking.

Edit: just saw HH basically posted the same thing.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Brandon Miller V Williams.

Oh, I'm thinking the Pels' games. Yeah, Cody's going to lockup Miller....

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

Rules that make drafted guys easier to retain encourage tanking.

Yeah, and ....? I've questioned the efficacy of tanking vs. its cost. I haven't proposed eliminating it.

Also, that a policy creates some perverse incentives at the margin is to be expected and not necessarily in itself a reason not to enact a policy. It's a matter of degree. My sense is that any perverse impact this would have on the tanking incentive would be marginal relative to what is already an already incredibly perverse incentive system.