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2024-2025 Tank Race

rippimpc said:
It would be interesting to see someone do a statistical analysis of some sort on how the lottery has panned out over the years. Wonder if there’s a way to show if there’s a true random statistical distribution or if there’s evidence that thumbs have tipped the scales at times.
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As others have rightly pointed out, there's way, way, way too little data in the 5 years since the lottery odds changed to do this. Even with the older odds, still far too little data to make any kind of judgment.
 
I have felt all season that the 3rd worst record will win the lottery.
But I'm not superstitious and know that my feeling is irrelevant and dumb.

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infection said:
The sample sizes are too small (you’re looking at a sample of ~30). But it’s also complicated because it can’t take into effect lots and lots of noisy data. I’m going to make a larger post about this later. I think too often people have a very all-or-nothing view of this, like the league is sitting in Secaucus planning every point of every game. It’s don’t believe anything is tightly controlled, but there are things that can have varying level of influence. I believe there are certain outcomes that can be problematic, and the league can pull certain levers to prevent, or at least reduce risk of, certain outcomes. Thus think the false dichotomy of “if there’s not evidence that every single thing is rigged in its entirety, then no undue influence happens anywhere” is a bit of a straw man and silly.
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Thanks. This reminds me of Magnus Carlsen saying cheating in chess is undetectable if someone only cheats at pivotal moments.
 
infection said:
The sample sizes are too small (you’re looking at a sample of ~30). But it’s also complicated because it can’t take into effect lots and lots of noisy data. I’m going to make a larger post about this later. I think too often people have a very all-or-nothing view of this, like the league is sitting in Secaucus planning every point of every game. It’s don’t believe anything is tightly controlled, but there are things that can have varying level of influence. I believe there are certain outcomes that can be problematic, and the league can pull certain levers to prevent, or at least reduce risk of, certain outcomes. Thus think the false dichotomy of “if there’s not evidence that every single thing is rigged in its entirety, then no undue influence happens anywhere” is a bit of a straw man and silly.
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Those of us old enough all watched the league step in to hand that Kings-Lakers series to LA. It was easy to see the thumb, foot, and a 18 pound sledgehammer on the scale for that one. It is also statistically improbable that the Jazz lose nearly every draft related coinflip that we have ever participated in. I'm not sure how those are witnessed and verified though. . .
 
Updated the OP.

- Elite tanking stretch from Utah.
- Miami crashing in to the bottom 10 of the league
- The Phili/Brooklyn tank off will be fascinating
- It will be interesting to see how Washington approaches the rest of the season (They are 5-5 in their last 10)
 
rippimpc said:
Thanks. This reminds me of Magnus Carlsen saying cheating in chess is undetectable if someone only cheats at pivotal moments.
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If we could transport players from different eras to play each other, I’d love to see Carlsen against Tigran Petrosian.
 
fishonjazz said:
I have felt all season that the 3rd worst record will win the lottery.
But I'm not superstitious and know that my feeling is irrelevant and dumb.

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk
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Same here. We dropped 2 spots last year and I feel we deserve to win those back this year, so getting 3rd worst would be our spot to be. Also not (very) superstitious though, just a little stitious (thanks Michael Scott).
 
Udidthizz said:
Same here. We dropped 2 spots last year and I feel we deserve to win those back this year, so getting 3rd worst would be our spot to be. Also not (very) superstitious though, just a little stitious (thanks Michael Scott).
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Michael Scott is the GOAT
I used the Michael Scott "Noooooo" meme (from when he saw Toby was back) just today when I texted my wife and told her I forgot to bring the giardiniera to work today to put on my cheese steak.
 
Can't believe the hornets and pelicans beat good teams on back to back nights.
I feel like bottom 3 is a done deal at this point.
 
rippimpc said:
Thanks. This reminds me of Magnus Carlsen saying cheating in chess is undetectable if someone only cheats at pivotal moments.
Click to expand...

framer said:
Those of us old enough all watched the league step in to hand that Kings-Lakers series to LA. It was easy to see the thumb, foot, and a 18 pound sledgehammer on the scale for that one. It is also statistically improbable that the Jazz lose nearly every draft related coinflip that we have ever participated in. I'm not sure how those are witnessed and verified though. . .
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I ended up posting the quoted post below this at the back end of an old thread in response to something else but probably should have put it here in this thread as it's more up to date. This reflects my feelings on the issue. I'm anticipating we move back in the lottery, whether by odds or any other way.

infection said:
Alright, I've had this post and I guess this is just the best place to put it. It gets really touchy when we start talking about things that approximate conspiracy. It's understandable. My working theory (broader than basketball) is that there are these developmental stages we pass through and we view maturity as reaching a stage of hyper-rationality. One example being a child who is afraid of ghosts or monsters in the house, hears rustling at night, thinks they hear whispers, etc., and has to be reassured by parents that there's no ghost, no monster, no whatever. Part of a maturation stage of growing up is identifying with the stability of those more mature than us, forsaking our childish impulses and fantastical beliefs and fears, and embracing a form of rationality that emerges almost as a compensation. Now everything has a reasonable, rational explanation. While we achieve this significant shift in world view, we view it as development when it's partially that but largely just pendulum swinging. Rightfully so, we look at those less sophisticated and see stupid arguments and feel almost compelled to put some distance between us and them. After all, there is no shortage of ridiculously stupid things you'll read, especially on comments of articles where the commenters clearly have no basis in any fact or reality. Naturally, we don't want lumped in with that, and here we are (this isn't directed at you, it's a cultural thing):

1742523743853.png

A friend tells us about some unexplained phenomenon that happened at their house at night, attributing it to some kind of paranormal issue. Not to be sucked into pointless drivel, our appetite is whet for rational explanation. It's not sufficient to say, "Gee, that's interesting. I don't have an explanation for that. I'm not inclined to believe it was what you're saying but I don't have an answer." Instead, we insist on having an explanation -- "It was the heater kicking on!!", "It was your neighbor taking out the trash!!", etc., etc. Agnosticism, from this view, is tantamount to belief. It is not enough to simply be a non-believer. One must be actively anti-belief. Or so we feel, lest we find ourselves in the condition of what we view the Neanderthal on the left of the meme. But, alas, here we really are:

1742523768623.png

My point is to say this: the league is currently struggling with a product quality problem, specifically in relation to tanking. This isn't just a fringe discussion that doesn't really affect the product or its consumption, appearing only in hyper-focused internet discussion forums, but instead very commonly referenced, seen, and understood even from very public and mainstream sports sources. Viewership has not rebounded post-COVID. Despite that, the league continues to, presumably, make more money each year, due to a myriad of issues. But the tanking issue is a legitimate, tangible threat to the product as the culture surrounding this has changed so drastically over the past 20 years. The league has enough self-interest and self-awareness to foresee consequences to certain actions they take 4, 5, or 6 steps father down the road. If the league issues a fine to a team regarding tanking, they do so knowing that said team could indeed end up winning the lottery. That's a disaster, especially given how prominently discussion surrounding tanking compromising the product is, and how much the focus on the league shifts to all of these teams engaging in certain acts to land a top pick (but not just referencing those acts, referencing specifically where the league has formally acknowledged such issues via fine) and how this whole anti-competitive process is a significant stain on the league. If the league finds themselves in a situation where they issued a fine to a team regarding tanking, and that team lands the #1 pick, the fallout from that would be such that it would have been better to not fine said team to begin with. That's not something the league isn't aware of. Do I believe that the league has a meeting before each season detailing story lines like professional wrestling, or that Adam Silver lays in bed at night on his phone coming up with the draft order? No. But can there sometimes be safeguards, much like bowling bumper lanes, that can exist to prevent certain events that can be problematic to the success and vitality of the league?

A better way to put this: our chances of landing 5th or lower are more than three times higher than our chance of landing #1. There is nothing nefarious about that and it's nearly impossible to make an argument otherwise. Same with anyone else. I haven't kept up with any of the other investigations and if any other teams ended up receiving formal penalties. But, if there are, I'd watch what happens with any of those teams. If all teams issued formal penalties find themselves outside the top 4, this is still a very likely outcome, so likely that anyone would point to the Neanderthal any time that argument is raised. But, should that be the case, the message will be clear and congratulations, the league has just definitely solved the tanking issue. At least at the top half of the draft. It may encourage it from the back half, but perhaps the play-in safeguards against that.
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Jazz need to finish with worst record
That guarantees no worse than the #4 pick right
Maybe they can still get an all star caliber player
 
Here is a breakdown from ChatGPT first showing the 2nd spot and what the result was and then what the 1st spot results since the new odds

Since the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery reform, here’s how the second-worst team finished in the draft lottery, including 2024:
• 2019: Cleveland Cavaliers (19-63) → 5th pick
• 2020: Golden State Warriors (15-50) → 2nd pick
• 2021: Houston Rockets (17-55) → 2nd pick
• 2022: Houston Rockets (20-62) → 3rd pick
• 2023: San Antonio Spurs (22-60) → 1st pick
• 2024: Washington Wizards (15-67) → 2nd pick

Between 2019 and 2024, the team with the worst record entering the NBA Draft Lottery received the 5th pick once, in 2024. Here’s a breakdown of their lottery outcomes during this period:
• 2019: New York Knicks (17-65) → 3rd pick
• 2020: Golden State Warriors (15-50) → 2nd pick
• 2021: Houston Rockets (17-55) → 2nd pick
• 2022: Houston Rockets (20-62) → 3rd pick
• 2023: Detroit Pistons (17-65) → 1st pick
• 2024: Detroit Pistons (14-68) → 5th pick
 
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