Solving For Tanking, We're smart, let's figure it out

[KqWIN]

Incentive to win
Incentive to win
Incentive to win

The NBA needs this

 

[fishonjazz]

Incentive to win
Incentive to win
Incentive to win

The NBA needs this

Any ideas?

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[KqWIN]

Any ideas?

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Two parties need to be incentivized 1) players 2) owners/teams and you can do that by either providing more money or a competitive advantage. More money is simple and I think a lot can be done there. Competitive advantages could be CBA related and could be advantages that allow teams to spend money for freely.

I have a lot of thoughts on how to apply this, but at high level you can simply provide more of those incentives for players teams who finish higher. They could also tie these incentives to the NBA cup which is an idea I think the NBA should expand on greatly. My ideal world would be some in season tournament that would require qualification the previous year, but you can also do this with divisions. The NBA cup games as they are now are much more competitive than your normal Tuesday night NBA game. Increasing the incentive and frequency of games that mean more would mean more competitive basketball games throughout the season and more reward for actually winning them.

My ideal model would be something similar to how they have it in European Sports. Your placing in the league one year determines what tier of "cup" competition you play the following year. We will never have relegation in the NBA, but we could say 3 tiers of teams and then those teams compete with each other for incentives. I like this idea because it would mean that the bottom teams have something to play for and win when they play against other bottom teams.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

KOC predicted that there would be some changes this off-season regarding the rules for tanking due to the new TV deals happening

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think you should make point differential part of what gives you lottery odds. No idea what the calculus would be for that.

Wouldn't absolutely solve tanking, but it would give incentive to teams not to be pathetic while tanking.

 

[Chargers Jazz Angels]

View: https://youtu.be/FdNd69dx5gg?si=cWMmTOBB7XgUP4VH


He brought up the idea of a lottery tournament. How it works

Worst record gets home court
Single elimination
Winner advances
Winner of the tournament gets pick #1 Loser #2
Loser of the se.i finals plays for #3 and #4

then treams remain where they finished record wise.

Nba would make a ton of money with the tournament. Might hold teams off trading vets. Not always an advantage to be awful.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

A lottery tournament is really really stupid imo.

 

[KqWIN]

Lottery tournament is a terrible idea. Teams would be tanking to get into the tournament.

 

[Flc]

KOC predicted that there would be some changes this off-season regarding the rules for tanking due to the new TV deals happening

If this pans out and Ainge tanked so hard he broke the NBA, I will laugh.

 

[Coach Ellis]

If this pans out and Ainge tanked so hard he broke the NBA, I will laugh.

Especially if they’re not nearly as bad next year because they managed to do it while keeping Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, John Collins, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

Haven't kept up with this thread, but thought they did a decent job of coming up with some ideas:

View: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/solving-tanking/id1483267868?i=1000700968442


Ideas I think would at least help:
- No more pick protections in the 4-14 range. Basically you can protect for winning the lottery and you can protect for making the playoffs, but you can't in that range. Would eliminate some of the most egregious late season tanking we have seen from Dallas 2 years, the Jazz last year, and Philly this year.
- Win threshold to be eligible for the #1 pick. They suggested for something in the 15-20 win range. Would provide some winning onus for teams, and I believe that really anyone who is at least trying is able to go 18-64, even a team like Washington. If you don't make the threshold you are still eligible for #2+, but the worst tanking generally happens in drafts with an incredible prospect and this helps with that.
- Shortening the season. Big fan of this one and think a 54 game season would massively decrease resting, fewer games means the season isn't out of hand as fast, and we just get a better product for each season. Would be less money for players and owners so I doubt it happens, plus there would be complaints about "all-time stat records", but I think it would make a better product.

Ideas I wouldn't immediately hate if the NBA tried but don't love and think would just introduce new problems:
- Lottery standings are frozen at the trade deadline or allstar break. Most teams don't activate egregious tanking until after this point and young teams could play fast and loose to end the season. I think it would move tanking for many teams earlier in the season leading up to the break, but don't overly hate it.
- Lottery players have a higher cap hit (though contracts stay the same and gets distributed to players in the player's association already otherwise they would block it because it means less for them). Draft picks are especially valuable because they are cost controlled, but decreases that benefit.

Ideas I don't like but get argued:
- Wheel. Its been discussed, but I think the high value hope of good draft picks keeps bad franchises alive and we could get purgatory teams where fans are just totally done.
- Open market for new players, teams are incentivized to keep cap space so they can sign these players. Players association would block it and just don't like it.
- Bidding system where teams have "lottery points" to use over a 10+ year span, teams can cash in to try and get a Dylan Harper or save and use in other ways. Lots of potential problems but I get what they are going for.
- A random 15-20 game span where wins actually count as losses for lottery standings. Weird but a funny idea, teams don't know when this period will be so there is always a risk of tanking at any one point.
- Lottery tournament. Few versions of this, I could get behind a tournament where the winner is guaranteed at least #4 or something, but feels overly complicated. They suggested a system where #14 plays #13, winner plays #12, all the way up to #1 which is kinda fun but scheduling just wouldn't work. But this establishes draft order and a #14 team would have to win 13 in a row to get the top pick.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Ideas I don't like but get argued:
- Wheel. Its been discussed, but I think the high value hope of good draft picks keeps bad franchises alive and we could get purgatory teams where fans are just totally done.

Teams would still get high picks with the wheel...

 

[Jaanipoeg]

Teams would still get high picks with the wheel...

Yeah I don't fully hate it, probably would be more middle tier, but the dream of a Cooper Flagg or a Victor Wembanyama get me through dark tank years. If we are **** and I know our next 5 picks are like 12, 25, 15, 9, 20 then I would really struggle to soldier on and care. Obviously later draft picks can pop off, but the diminishing average returns are clear. Add to that that the Jazz's really only avenue is the draft, even in this new diminished free agency culture we will rarely make lists of acceptable trade targets. The league's parity seems to have changed a bit with the new cap rules so we will have to see.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also, just a small note idea for The Wheel. Only the first round is The Wheel. The 2nd round is by standings.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Another idea, maybe only make losses (post trade deadline) count towards your loss record for lottery standings count if you beat the spread.

DAy to day injuries don't count towards spread calculations. So unless a player has a verifiable injury (like a sprain, pull, etc) the spread would be calculated as if they were playing?

 

[fishonjazz]

Another idea, maybe only make losses (post trade deadline) count towards your loss record for lottery standings count if you beat the spread.

DAy to day injuries don't count towards spread calculations. So unless a player has a verifiable injury (like a sprain, pull, etc) the spread would be calculated as if they were playing?

Interesting.

 

[gandalfe]

I can fix tanking with 1 word:

Relegation.

Silver is so enamored of the European model, let's try this. The best G-League team moves up to the NBA, the worst NBA team moves to the G-League.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

Add in financial incentive. Only playoff teams and those that made the play-in are eligible for revenue sharing.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

I can fix tanking with 1 word:

Relegation.

Silver is so enamored of the European model, let's try this. The best G-League team moves up to the NBA, the worst NBA team moves to the G-League.

Silver doesn't actually have much "power", he's just a figurehead representing the interests of the 30 owners and there's no way they'd be on board with the franchises that spent billions on being relegated to the shadow realm, no matter how justified.

I love the idea of relegation and the Maine Red Claws climbing to the NBA, but our financial structure would never allow it.

 

[idiot]

I'm kind of behind on things around here, so I assume that many of you have seen this article from Bontemps and Felton on ESPN on tanking. For those that haven't, one of the key things I liked was they interviewed Evan Wasch, the NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics. Some of his quotations:

"Philosophically, I'm not aware of anyone making a serious push to eliminate our current philosophy of the draft, which is to award top picks to teams that are most in need of talent," Evan Wasch, the NBA's executive vice president of strategy and analytics, told ESPN. "That is a fundamental tenet of our current draft system."

Wasch said the NBA will continue to monitor player availability, particularly qualifying stars like Markkanen, but expressed no issue with teams leaving starters on the bench in key moments.

"We are not in the business of policing rotations in that way," Wasch said. "For the league to step in and say that a team chose to play one player over another player and that was the wrong decision, I think that's a bit of a slippery slope. ...

"And oh, by the way, some of those [younger] guys actually go win the game."

"One of the goals of lottery reform was really to smooth out outcomes within the lottery so that no team would look at it and say there's a significant benefit to me being the third lottery team as opposed to the fourth, or the eighth lottery team as opposed to the ninth," Wasch said. "That's something we had focused heavily on.

"Of course, the pick-protection issue kind of cut the other way on that. If a team has a top-10-protected pick, it actually matters a lot whether they finish with the 10th-worst record or the 11th-worst record. That is a dynamic that we're seeing."

(My editorial thought: Try telling that statement to about 3rd being no better than 4th to Jazz fans, media, and presumably the Jazz themselves. I don't think the NBA succeeded in this goal.)