Jackpotting Around- Accountability and The Sacred Timeline

[Handlogten's Heros]

About half way through now and as a discussion point I don't agree on Flip as the guy we keep if we can only keep one young guy.

I assume that Kessler is not part of this discussion?

As good as Flip has been I just don't know if he'll ever be a starting level guy on a good team because of his defense. I hear the argument that you don't have to play him at the 5, but I don't know if you can start him defensively at the 4 either. I'll also point out that almost all of his really good games came against really bad teams. It mostly wasn't his fault because for the majority of the year he didn't play much against the good teams, but it makes me more hesitant on his upside. I think at this point in the rebuild I would save the guy I most thought could be a starter on a good team. You can always find the 3rd/4th big later.

1st and 2nd year guys.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I just googled how it works and even that went over my head.

Hey, im with ya on this. I'm having a hard time understanding

Understanding why the Wizards can only be 6th if the Jazz are 5th? I’d feel dumb just explaining it again how multiple people have already done it, but I’m very curious which part isn’t making sense to you… if you need help you can just go to Tankathon and simulate over and over. Specifically look for cases where the Jazz and/or Wizards aren’t in the top 4 and see what happens with 5 and/or 6 in those scenarios.

Or even better, just write out a lottery result where Jazz aren’t 5, but the Wizards are 6. Its impossible, and I feel like it would become evident why pretty quickly..

 

[fishonjazz]

I'll give it a try:

The lottery only directly determines picks 1-4. After that (picks 5-30), the order is determined by the worst records remaining.

If we don't get top 4, then we will get pick 5 (as the worst remaining record). If we get top 4, then the Wizards (as the worst record remaining, and if they don't also get top 4) get pick 5.

So that means Wizards get pick 6 only if there's a team remaining after the 1-4 picks are determined with a worse record than they have. That team with a worse record will get pick 5. We're the only team with a worse record than the Wizards, so the only way they get pick 6 is if we get pick 5.

Excellent work sir.
I got it now

 

[fishonjazz]

Simple explanation:

They are currently #2. For them to fall to #6, 4 teams must pass them.

But that means those 4 teams will also pass us, since the only way they pass Wizards is by getting a winning lottery ticket.

If Jazz win in the lottery, then 4 teams cannot pass the Wizards anymore, as Jazz winning means only 3 others can win.

I like @idiot explanation better

 

[fishonjazz]

Understanding why the Wizards can only be 6th if the Jazz are 5th? I’d feel dumb just explaining it again how multiple people have already done it, but I’m very curious which part isn’t making sense to you… if you need help you can just go to Tankathon and simulate over and over. Specifically look for cases where the Jazz and/or Wizards aren’t in the top 4 and see what happens with 5 and/or 6 in those scenarios.

Or even better, just write out a lottery result where Jazz aren’t 5, but the Wizards are 6. Its impossible, and I feel like it would become evident why pretty quickly..

I thought the lottery determined the lottery draft picks rather than picks 1-4.
That is why I was confused.

 

[Miggs]

Friendly reminder as the President of his fan club that we should’ve drafted Bub.

From The Wire? Because that was Bubs.

 

[Miggs]

so I did a recording but can’t figure out how to get it here. Lol

I should record my Denzel impersonation from Training Day and post it.