Seeing AL Objectively - SLCdunk article

[franklin]

If you don't find the current brand of Jazz basketball entertaining, and you don't think Al has the skill set and bball IQ to complement better players enough for the Jazz to become a contender (role and future salary are HUGE considerations here), should you just grin and bear it?

What other options are there? I ask that with complete sincerity. We all know KOC won't blow it up to get high lottery picks.

NBA offenses require excellent iso players who create weaknesses in the defenses. Jefferson is the closest player the Jazz have to that & Hayward is the only true prospect IMO. If Jefferson goes then someone has to fill that role. Otherwise, this team will look as pathetic all season long as they did in 4 games against SAS last playoffs. Yet they won't be bad enough to garner a high lottery pick. Bleh.

I also hate the notion of losing Millsap without getting anything back in return. Re-signing him is a huge risk given no bird rights & him wanting & deserving a starting role. Jefferson is in a position to be re-signed before his contract expires. The Jazz need to either sign both these guys or get an asset back in a trade(s).

 

[NAOS]

well, now we are getting to the foundation of all the arguments. I don't think the jazz would miss Jefferson for very long. If we score 4 less points on offense, then we make up 6 points on defense. But that's just for sake of argument, because I think we become a better offensive team within 15 games. Favors will grow offensively, as will Hay and Burks. Commit to defense; and play a looser, faster offense. Let the 3 fly when open.

48 wins without Jefferson, IMO. And, those wins come with increased minutes and touches from all the players that will carry us further next year. <-- basically, this is what last year should have been.

 

[GVC]

What other options are there? I ask that with complete sincerity. We all know KOC won't blow it up to get high lottery picks.

NBA offenses require excellent iso players who create weaknesses in the defenses. Jefferson is the closest player the Jazz have to that & Hayward is the only true prospect IMO. If Jefferson goes then someone has to fill that role. Otherwise, this team will look as pathetic all season long as they did in 4 games against SAS last playoffs. Yet they won't be bad enough to garner a high lottery pick. Bleh.

I also hate the notion of losing Millsap without getting anything back in return. Re-signing him is a huge risk given no bird rights & him wanting & deserving a starting role. Jefferson is in a position to be re-signed before his contract expires. The Jazz need to either sign both these guys or get an asset back in a trade(s).

Whoa. Several issues...

Didn't KOC trade Deron Williams for prospects and picks? Don't the Jazz have a new GM? With all the recent changes, it's well within the realm of possibility that this roster looks a lot different a year from now.

Re: "NBA offenses require excellent iso players...": Even if your premise is correct (I'm not sure it is), Jefferson isn't an excellent iso player (or particularly dynamic to say the least), and I don't expect him to become one (I could be wrong). The low entertainment value of Jefferson ball AND the commitment to mediocrity a commitment to Jefferson would indicate would be enough for me to jump ship, quite frankly. No loss for you and yours, but a bridge I'd rather not cross.

And the Jazz do own Bird Rights on Millsap.

 

[fishonjazz]

well, now we are getting to the foundation of all the arguments. I don't think the jazz would miss Jefferson for very long. If we score 4 less points on offense, then we make up 6 points on defense. But that's just for sake of argument, because I think we become a better offensive team within 15 games. Favors will grow offensively, as will Hay and Burks. Commit to defense; and play a looser, faster offense. Let the 3 fly when open.

48 wins without Jefferson, IMO. And, those wins come with increased minutes and touches from all the players that will carry us further next year. <-- basically, this is what last year should have been.

This.

 

[franklin]

This is high level troll, Geevee, but I'll keep going with it. You didn't answer what the alternatives are.

Didn't KOC trade Deron Williams for prospects and picks? Don't the Jazz have a new GM? With all the recent changes, it's well within the realm of possibility that this roster looks a lot different a year from now.

Trading with his back against the wall trying to squeeze value into it is obviously different than trading off assets for no return other than saving money & obtaining high draft picks.

Re: "NBA offenses require excellent iso players...": Even if your premise is correct (I'm not sure it is), Jefferson isn't an excellent iso player (or particularly dynamic to say the least), and I don't expect him to become one (I could be wrong). The low entertainment value of Jefferson ball AND the commitment to mediocrity a commitment to Jefferson would indicate would be enough for me to jump ship, quite frankly. No loss for you and yours, but a bridge I'd rather not cross..

The premise is correct. Talent is. I see the failed Nellyball experiment as a route around mismatches, but even that style requires a certain type of talent to compete.

I've always understood your side of the argument to be Jefferson is an excellent one on one player who fails when the double team comes because he lacks court vision & passing ability. You're handicapped if you think Jefferson is not one of the league's elite man to man scorers.

And the Jazz do own Bird Rights on Millsap.

Good correction. I meant he's UFA & can go where he chooses. How do you like the prospect of Millsap picking his starting role & the Jazz getting "stuck" with Jefferson?

 

[theNBAnerd]

GVC and NAOS doing solid work here... i especially agree with GVC saying that a team that is built around al is basically accepting mediocrity, and NAOS's theory that we'd get over the loss of al pretty fast.

franklin said this:

27 y.o. JefferSap are one of the top front lines in the league, statistically speaking, so why not work with that instead of bitching about their shortcomings.

so first of all, i totally disagree about us having one of the top front lines in the league. if we did, san antonio wouldn't have swept us specifically by attacking our front line on both ends of the floor. i think we have a decent front line, but jefferson is not a franchise standard-bearer and everybody in the NBA community knows it, which is why every ranking on the jazz mentions how limited we are because of jefferson.

now, replace 27 year old jeffersap with millsap-favors (average age 24) and i think you're chance of having a star are a lot greater.

all my angst about jefferson --ok, at least 75% of it-- is because he is holding favors back. we gave up an all-NBA talent in the hopes that favors would become the same, and now we're denying him that opportunity. favors' ceiling is MUCH higher than al's, but it's easier to accept al's safer-but-mediocre 19 points and 9 rebounds even if it doesn't make anybody around him any better.

 

[franklin]

San Antonio ran the Jazz to death & Parker ate them up. That's all on the backcourt, dumb ***.

 

[NAOS]

When Popovich couldn't get what he wanted from Parker's relentless North-South action, then he got Al involved in PnR or defending Duncan in space. That equals death. Every mother ****ing time.

It was all-out destruction: front court and backcourt. We've tried to fix the backcourt. The front court is still manned by the guy with two left feet.

 

[theNBAnerd]

San Antonio ran the Jazz to death & Parker ate them up. That's all on the backcourt, dumb ***.

a) i'm not a dumbass
b) it's usually the loser of an argument that resorts to name-calling
c) watch the series again. parker had his way because pop had him in a PnR with whoever jefferson was guarding. if jefferson was guarding tim, then the PnR was with tim. if corbin tried to adjust to take al out of the PnR defense by switching al onto diaw, then diaw was the pick man.

 

[NAOS]

I needed reminding myself, so here it is for everybody:

Frank isn't pro-Jefferson. He's just doubling down now that we appear to be stuck with him.

 

[northeast]

You're handicapped if you think ....

no you are.

 

[Ben10]

all my angst about jefferson --ok, at least 75% of it-- is because he is holding favors back. we gave up an all-NBA talent in the hopes that favors would become the same, and now we're denying him that opportunity. favors' ceiling is MUCH higher than al's, but it's easier to accept al's safer-but-mediocre 19 points and 9 rebounds even if it doesn't make anybody around him any better.

This is not disagreeing with your statement here Nerd. But How is it on Jefferson that Favors is getting held back. Isn't it Millsap that plays Favors preferred position? Don't Sap and Jefferson take about the same # of shots per game? I'm not a big Jefferson fan but having the "safe" 20 and 9 that Jefferson gives us isn't holding Favors back at all if Favors is playing most of the min at the PF. The problem is witch one of the 2 (Sap or Jeff) being out of the lineup gives us the best chance to compete and win while giving Favors the min he needs?

 

[theNBAnerd]

i've answered most of these contentions in this and other threads before, but here i go again....

This is not disagreeing with your statement here Nerd. But How is it on Jefferson that Favors is getting held back. Isn't it Millsap that plays Favors preferred position?

the 4 and the 5 are basically equivalent positions, especially in the jazz's sets. favors and millsap absolutely can be on the floor together. in fact, i would argue their skills complement each other more than favors and jefferson.

Don't Sap and Jefferson take about the same # of shots per game?

al: 18.2 FGA/36 and 1.12 points per shot. paul: 14.8 FGA/36 and 1.23 points per shot. so a) no, they don't take the same number of shots, b) at least paul is measurably more effective with the attempts he DOES take, and c) paul doesn't have to bring the whole offernse to a grinding hault to get his shot off.

(note: the team's PPS is 1.19, which means jefferson is well below average and yet is our main offensive staple.)

I'm not a big Jefferson fan but having the "safe" 20 and 9 that Jefferson gives us isn't holding Favors back at all if Favors is playing most of the min at the PF.

the problem with jefferson's 19 points (not 20) is that it takes him 17 shots to get there). you're right on rebounds, though, sap doesn't rebound enough to compensate for the hypothetical situation where al got abducted by aliens or traded for a new team masseur. however, both favors and kanter have a higher rebound % than al, and since any scenario where al is gone means more minutes for those two, i think we'd be fine.

and yes, jefferson hold almost everyone back (regardless of position, which matters less and less in today's NBA) because he's only effective in isolation post-ups where the ball goes to him and stops. it doesn't matter if you're a point shooting guard, that offensive philosophy DOES get in your way if you're anyone other than al jefferson.

The problem is witch one of the 2 (Sap or Jeff) being out of the lineup gives us the best chance to compete and win while giving Favors the min he needs?

i totally agree that this is the right question to be asking... and i have long since come to the conclusion that the answer to both part A and part B rhymes with daul dillsap.

 

[franklin]

the 4 and the 5 are basically equivalent positions, especially in the jazz's sets. favors and millsap absolutely can be on the floor together. in fact, i would argue their skills complement each other more than favors and jefferson.

al: 18.2 FGA/36 and 1.12 points per shot. paul: 14.8 FGA/36 and 1.23 points per shot. so a) no, they don't take the same number of shots, b) at least paul is measurably more effective with the attempts he DOES take, and c) paul doesn't have to bring the whole offernse to a grinding hault to get his shot off.

You really are clueless to how NBA offenses work, aren't you. This has gone from sad to pathetic.

 

[Ben10]

i've answered most of these contentions in this and other threads before, but here i go again....

Thanks for answering again. I didn't want to sift through pages and pages of other threads to get your answers. So i'll rep you for taking the time.

One more thing that I know you have gone over (and because I respect your POV). From what I have seen of the offseason moves it that the reason they are building the offense around a player like Jefferson is that he is the only person the the team that commands a double team. And that is what you have to have to get the defense to move were you can get open looks. I remember the end of the Orlando game in OT were Jefferson scored in a one on one situation and forced Nelson to double the next time he got the ball in the post. Pass out to Harris swing to Hayward hits the 3. Next time Nelson doubles again pass out to Harris, another 3 game over. Jefferson seemed more willing to pass moving toward the end of the season and now that we have the shooters around him does this possibly take away the grinding halt in his game?

Video of the game I am talking about:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdSmVxS_-Pc&list=UUtQaN8nRecAqzoqUQUvo9tw&index=28&feature=plpp_video

Jefferson was hitting that night. (so this isn't the case all the time) If you noticed the P&R with Favors were Harris hits him on the post worked because they were doubling Al even without the ball. Thats why Favors was able to walk to the rim. I don't know that this is the mold we want but is seems to me this game is what the FO is trying to accomplish with there moves.

 

[theNBAnerd]

You really are clueless to how NBA offenses work, aren't you. This has gone from sad to pathetic.

maybe i'll check out basketball for dummies this weekend from the library. in the meantime, i'm going to operate on the assumption that the more points an offense produces, the better it is.

when i get to the part in the book about how i'm wrong and how it's better to channel more late-game possessions through a player that is less effective than most of his teammates, then i'll know as much as you and i can write my mom a letter. that will make her proud.

 

[theNBAnerd]

Thanks for answering again. I didn't want to sift through pages and pages of other threads to get your answers. So i'll rep you for taking the time.

One more thing that I know you have gone over (and because I respect your POV). From what I have seen of the offseason moves it that the reason they are building the offense around a player like Jefferson is that he is the only person the the team that commands a double team. And that is what you have to have to get the defense to move were you can get open looks. I remember the end of the Orlando game in OT were Jefferson scored in a one on one situation and forced Nelson to double the next time he got the ball in the post. Pass out to Harris swing to Hayward hits the 3. Next time Nelson doubles again pass out to Harris, another 3 game over. Jefferson seemed more willing to pass moving toward the end of the season and now that we have the shooters around him does this possibly take away the grinding halt in his game?

Video of the game I am talking about:

Jefferson was hitting that night. (so this isn't the case all the time) If you noticed the P&R with Favors were Harris hits him on the post worked because they were doubling Al even without the ball. Thats why Favors was able to walk to the rim. I don't know that this is the mold we want but is seems to me this game is what the FO is trying to accomplish with there moves.

yeah i'm intimately aware of this game from my al study i did. and i'm not going to try to argue against it, it really was a great game. he had a few games in april where he was playing much better, and it was at just the right time for the jazz. no argument there.

but i will just say that this game looks a lot more like an outlier than the new version of a jefferson that suddenly gets the offensive schemes. he didn't start passing better, he just had ONE game (and i think it was against the bobcats) where he had 5 assists and generated a whole bunch of "now he gets it" talk. after that, every time he had a single assist, boler got all over his junk and talked about how it was more evidence that jefferson was suddenly a playmaking big. nice story, but his april assist average was 2.3 per 36, compared to a season average of... wait for it... 2.3 per 36. even in that orlando game you're talking about, he had 2 assists total for that game, both of which were simply passes back out to the strong-side wing.

i also don't know that i agree that the jazz are building around al simply because they got three point shooters. first of all, paul can command a double-team too (and even favors will demand some attention assuming he comes back with another move or two in his repertoire). it's not like having shooters only benefits a team that plays a staggeringly slow-paced form of basketball that is predicated on the ball getting stuck on the low block for half the possession. i think they got guys to make the team better and more flexible. maybe that will help al, or maybe it will help derrick become the future star of the franchise. either way, i don't like jumping to the conclusion that this was all designed with al in mind, especially since al is the one guy they COULD have locked up long term this summer and they didn't.

 

[mellow]

Just saw that Al is ranked the #10 player for ESPN fantasy league. Don't they know he sucks?

FYI: Milsap is 11, Favors is 100 (good value pick there), Hayward is 73, Mo Williams is 83.

 

[Deleted member 848]

franklin for president



















Carry on.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Just saw that Al is ranked the #10 player for ESPN fantasy league. Don't they know he sucks?

FYI: Milsap is 11, Favors is 100 (good value pick there), Hayward is 73, Mo Williams is 83.

Considering all Al has done in his career is put up numbers, that would make sense.