Utah Jazz attendance numbers

[Siro]

I have seen some speculation about attendance numbers and whether the fan base is losing interest in the team. I compiled a few statistics to try and answer the question.

Average attendance over the past 13 years:

As you can see, the average attendance so far is on the low side (lowest since 2006), but the Jazz has seen lower averages, specially after the previous lockout when all of the NBA took an attendance hit for a couple of years.


To gauge the interest of fans, I plotted the attendance per game this season vs 2009-10, which was the last full season with Jerry Sloan before the current cluster****. I also complied the data for average attendance per game (in SLC, obviously) for the past 6 seasons to get an idea of a more generalized trend.

It might be difficult to see, but the plots match pretty well for the first 15 games or so. At that point, we see the increase in average attendance as the season matures in 2009-10 and historically. Current season does not involve any significant increase in average attendance, and the plot is overtaken by the other two. The trend lines below demonstrate this pattern.

While previous seasons followed the expected pattern of increasing averages as the seasons progressed, this season's trend line is flat. It is my assessment that the situation of dropping attendance is very real and concerning, but it is not yet catastrophic. I would be interest to see what would happen if the trade deadline passes without any changes. Current projections show a considerable drop in full season average attendance if the trend continues. It is also possible that some hold outs will lose interest and push the slope into the negative.

We'll see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

 

[nightmare3983]

Good work. You're getting pretty hardcore with the graphs and charts. I agree that it will be interesting to see if any moves happen before the trade deadline and how the fan base responds.

 

[Hotdog]

I haven't been to a game in the last two years. I usually would do about 5-6 a year before that. I won't be going back for a while if they fail to make a trade at this deadline. Gotta show the management that I don't approve of their effort. Of course I will be back at some point, but for now I make my stand.

 

[green]

I used to be fanatical about the Jazz. I haven't watched a full game since Jerry left.

 

[Zulu]

I used to be fanatical about the Jazz. I haven't watched a full game since Jerry left.

Lame....

 

[QuinSnydersHair]

According to the linear trend data for this season, our fans have just about flatlined. That sounds about right.

 

[Lion's Roar]

I used to be fanatical about the Jazz. I haven't watched a full game since Jerry left.

Quit jackpoting around and go watch the freakin' game.

 

[//r00t 4 Jazz]

I used to be fanatical about the Jazz. I haven't watched a full game since Jerry left.

Jerry disapproves of this, how do I know because he has been to many a game this year.

On a side note *not that it really matters* I haven't missed a game in I don't know how long but over 7yrs, closest is I missed the last 2-3min of the 2OT in last years ATL 3OT game when my DVR stopped but flipped to the channel to watch the rest of the final OT.

 

[franklin]

Cool charts!

Average attendance over the past 13 years:

Not exaclty sure how your years line up to seasons but it looks like there may be an economic correlation going on.

The two flatlines might coincide with increasing unemployment with a lag factored into season ticket holders dropping out, etc. Sharp drops follow these lags which is to be expected as people take some time before adjusting to the new reality. Continued adjustment expressed as downward attendance following the 2008 recession is more than expected as wages have stagnated and uncertainty has near retirees sphincters puckered up tighter than a nuns love hole.

The post-2006 rally obviously had a lot to do with the product on the floor. However, conditions were perfect for the Jazz to capitalize on their success with all the new money, house atms, and full employment. In other words, people who wanted to go to games could afford to.

 

[The Midnight]

Isn't this a non-issue now that we have revenue sharing?

 

[Beantown]

Ive noticed on TV that the arena looked a little sparse. My parents used to have season tickets but haven't since Jerry and Dwill left.

 

[franklin]

Isn't this a non-issue now that we have revenue sharing?

Definitely playing into it. An extra $11mm per year from the sharing pool plus potential $$$ from the luxury tax pool will give the Jazz a huge boost. It's very possible they hit the $10mm max profit for recieving teams. I'm interested in how the league decides to appropriate the LT money too.

As a side, the apron isn't going to do much in the way of profit parity but it should go a long ways to limiting the talent disparity. The s&t limitations will make it much harder for teams like the Lakers and Allen's Trailblazers to go $40mm over the cap. They will most likely have to draft and retain talent to get that far into LT territory ever again. The only other realistic option is overpaying an expiring worth $4mm the max for one season in the hopes of trading his salary and young pieces for a true max player. That's bad strategy though.

 

[UGLI baby]

I haven't been to a game this year (first time in my life that is the case.)

Blame me.

 

[orangello]

One thing that seems to be missing is $ per ticket. I have friends who have been to more games than normal this year because they were last minute tickets for $1. I wonder if the charts are deceiving due to incredibly cheap tickets.

 

[Weezur]

But attendance counts don't account for people who've bought seats and don't go.

 

[Lion's Roar]

The more important issue would be WHICH tickets are staying in the box office. If they're the cheap seats at $10 for instance a drop from 19911 to 18800 (let's round this to 1000 tickets) only means $10000 a game or $410.000 a season (or Kevin Murphy's contract). If the tickets are lower bowl tickets then it could have a much meaningful impact on the team.

 

[nightmare3983]

I used to be fanatical about the Jazz. I haven't watched a full game since Jerry left.

So you're more of a Jerry Sloan fan than a Jazz fan?

 

[nightmare3983]

One thing that seems to be missing is $ per ticket. I have friends who have been to more games than normal this year because they were last minute tickets for $1. I wonder if the charts are deceiving due to incredibly cheap tickets.

This is true, but I don't know that revenue information is readily available to the public.

 

[green]

So you're more of a Jerry Sloan fan than a Jazz fan?

Nope. I'm 100% an Al hater. If you can't thrive with Jerry and Deron, you have issues.

 

[fishonjazz]

I have been to 4 games this year, but only paid for one game.

I have not missed a game on tv yet this year though.

I think that attendance SHOULD be down league wide simply due to the amazing televisions (i have a 60 inch samsung) and the high quality HD... Watching games at home has improved so much that im less motivated to go to games than i was 10 years ago.