Report: Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz discussing contract extension

[LogGrad98]

So are we all missing something here that ball park frank is picking up? If favors gets minutes this year, he will average more than 15 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks per game. Seriously. That is without any improvement in his game. That is just adding minutes. If you don't believe that increased minutes lead to increased production at a similar rate, then you don't really watch the jazz. Millsap did it, Matthews did it, Stockton did it. When a bench guy getting minutes like favors is gets a starting role, the production translates.

If we let favors get a contract on the market, we will pay wayyyyyyy more when he is putting up 15, 11 and 3 blocks than we will now. With those numbers he is a max guy. Book it.

And what is this crap about having to pair him with Perkins or kanter? They are vastly different players. Perkins sucks balls and looks like he is constantly sniffing a fart. Kanter will be so good offensively that there won't be room for other post offense anyways. They are the perfect pair. The jazz need to keep favors, and get him locked up now.

???

 

[LogGrad98]

Beantown finally posts a selfie.

 

[LogGrad98]

I could buy into this argument if there were examples of players who just needed more minutes to prove what they otherwise couldn't prove. There are very few great NBA players who aren't a known commodity in short order.

Favors will grow and consistent minutes might give him confidence (it might kill it too). Hayward has a shot at a true breakout year so I agree with you on locking him up now if possible. That's why his value is so hard to judge. Favors is in a different boat b/c bigs are very hard to judge.

Bigs are also a very hot commodity, even if that translate into numbers with lower efficiencies. If he posts numbers better than last year, with the focus being on him without a Jefferson or Millsap to fall back on, it will affect his market value, even if those numbers are only modestly better. A big that "might" blow up is of value to almost every team in the league, enough for them to overpay.

 

[The Midnight]

I don't know. Sure, low ball. Low balling isn't going to work unless Hayward and Favors aren't really sure if they can do it. If they know they've got the goods they aren't taking the easy money now.

So it's sort of a logical puzzle. They take the low ball offer it means they want the easy pay day and they're going to be phoning it in.

Let them show who they are and pay them a fair price. That's what I say. This isn't the time for bargain shopping with long term commitments.

Some nice logic here.

But if we wait until next year - the price we'll pay will be more or less the market price.

The only way we can make a "profit" from this situation is if we pay each player what we believe they are worth "now". Then hopefully they don't just "phone it in" and makes real improvements going forward (quite likely given that these are good character guys).

 

[cctrackstar]

They are all overpaid, and it's not changing. I'm not saying that they aren't worth over a million a year, their talent and draw are something to behold, but when a player says 'if this guy got this much i should get this much' without taking into consideration the boneheads in that particular teams front office, then salaries keep going up and up.

A little part of my NBA fandom died when AK decided that he was a max guy because Pau was given the max. I've never quite been the same.

 

[franklin]

Bigs are also a very hot commodity, even if that translate into numbers with lower efficiencies. If he posts numbers better than last year, with the focus being on him without a Jefferson or Millsap to fall back on, it will affect his market value, even if those numbers are only modestly better. A big that "might" blow up is of value to almost every team in the league, enough for them to overpay.

Recent contract history doesn't say so. David West, arguably the best player on the Pacers just took 3 years and 36million. Ibaka is at $12.3mm per I think. Joakim Noah will make $13.4mm in 3 years time. Omer Asik, a true 7 footer gets $8.34mm. Pekovik just signed for $12mm and can earn another $1.6mm on some outside shots. Roy Hibbert is the only recent guy getting the max, and he's a proven 7'2" beast.

If this kid turns out to be as impactful as Noah then I'll be very pleased. Starting him at $12mm sounds fine after this season. Doing it before with no raises will be overpaying by $1-2mm per at most.

 

[Gameface]

Some nice logic here.

But if we wait until next year - the price we'll pay will be more or less the market price.

The only way we can make a "profit" from this situation is if we pay each player what we believe they are worth "now". Then hopefully they don't just "phone it in" and makes real improvements going forward (quite likely given that these are good character guys).

But that's what has me thinking. The only way we get the discount is if these players themselves aren't sure they can perform this year. If they are confident they don't do the deal. To me, that means don't do the deal if they are eager to do it. Maybe I'm too much of a cynic. But I see doing the deal now as a lose/lose. Lose if they know they don't have what it takes to get a better deal, lose if they get hurt. The only player I want to make a deal with now is a player that knows they can get a better deal later. Unfortunately, that means no deal.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

I could buy into this argument if there were examples of players who just needed more minutes to prove what they otherwise couldn't prove. There are very few great NBA players who aren't a known commodity in short order.

Favors will grow and consistent minutes might give him confidence (it might kill it too). Hayward has a shot at a true breakout year so I agree with you on locking him up now if possible. That's why his value is so hard to judge. Favors is in a different boat b/c bigs are very hard to judge.

I'm not in disagreement with you on this, there is definitely more risk with Favors. He hasn't really shown a decent shot, go to move, or offense yet and can't/won't argue that history is on the side of him not finding one suddenly 4 years in. It might be partially due to the fact that he is working with Malone now and I know Malone developed his range slowly year by year but he also started without a shot and was fairly similar to Favors when first coming out. I am probably 55 to 45 on Favors developing and becoming what we want him to be and more based on that, as well as his work ethic... and I don't know.. maybe I just like him so I'm drinking the cool aid. Either way I do love his defense and think he can become even better if he works on his angles, positioning, and how to handle the pick and roll correctly depending on what happens and what personnel on the other team are running it. If he clamps down on pick and rolls he'll be a beast whether he scores 10 a game from put backs and dunks, or if he scores 20 a game because he develops a shot.

Risky... but I think we want/need him on our team.

Just because I'm curious, pretend I'm a 5 year old (mentally true), and spell out exactly in what ways you think Favors has not proven himself that you very much doubt he will be able to prove with more minutes. My guess is PnR defense, any sort of shot, and the ability to stay out of foul trouble. amirite?

Recent contract history doesn't say so. David West, arguably the best player on the Pacers just took 3 years and 36million. Ibaka is at $12.3mm per I think. Joakim Noah will make $13.4mm in 3 years time. Omer Asik, a true 7 footer gets $8.34mm. Pekovik just signed for $12mm and can earn another $1.6mm on some outside shots. Roy Hibbert is the only recent guy getting the max, and he's a proven 7'2" beast.

If this kid turns out to be as impactful as Noah then I'll be very pleased. Starting him at $12mm sounds fine after this season. Doing it before with no raises will be overpaying by $1-2mm per at most.

I haven't looked at the numbers, but I don't think 12M per is a terrible number for him.

 

[udflyer]

Here is what I would offer both.

Hayward - $9 MM / year
Favors - $12 MM / year


If Hayward has a great year, he will get no more than $11 MM / year. I am concerned Hayward --> Celtics in 1-2 years if we do not sign.

If Favors has a great year, he will be on track for a Max deal.

 

[franklin]

Just because I'm curious, pretend I'm a 5 year old (mentally true), and spell out exactly in what ways you think Favors has not proven himself that you very much doubt he will be able to prove with more minutes. My guess is PnR defense, any sort of shot, and the ability to stay out of foul trouble. amirite?

It's not that I think he hasn't proven himself. The kid is a helluva player. But he's an intangibles guy who has so many holes in his game that he's not going to breakout into a max guy next year. Keep in mind that max means 7.5% compound raises to where it's almost $20mm in the fourth year of his deal.

--pnr defense shows great on roll man coverage. Problem is, he throws that Al Jefferson double screen into his own guy. Is that Corbin's fault? Probably needs to learn better angles.

--Post defense is not stellar but it is passable on the lesser post players. I expect this out of quick footed guys as you need weight and slow movements to hold weight.

--No outside shot. This is going to kill his pnr, high post and side iso abilities.

--pnr offense is trash. He can't dribble around guys or pull up. Better than Mo will help and I'm excited.

--He can't dribble in isolation. He's a turnover machine.


Favors has been around long enough that it's pretty safe to say he's not going to fill in all these gaps next season, if ever. Nothing wrong with that. Noah never did either and he's a helluva player, but he's not a max guy. You need those non-max guys on your team and I say so what if he never develops into Dwight Howard with a free throw.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

It's not that I think he hasn't proven himself. The kid is a helluva player. But he's an intangibles guy who has so many holes in his game that he's not going to breakout into a max guy next year. Keep in mind that max means 7.5% compound raises to where it's almost $20mm in the fourth year of his deal.

--pnr defense shows great on roll man coverage. Problem is, he throws that Al Jefferson double screen into his own guy. Is that Corbin's fault? Probably needs to learn better angles.

--Post defense is not stellar but it is passable on the lesser post players. I expect this out of quick footed guys as you need weight and slow movements to hold weight.

--No outside shot. This is going to kill his pnr, high post and side iso abilities.

--pnr offense is trash. He can't dribble around guys or pull up. Better than Mo will help and I'm excited.

--He can't dribble in isolation. He's a turnover machine.


Favors has been around long enough that it's pretty safe to say he's not going to fill in all these gaps next season, if ever. Nothing wrong with that. Noah never did either and he's a helluva player, but he's not a max guy. You need those non-max guys on your team and I say so what if he never develops into Dwight Howard with a free throw.

I think we are pretty much on the same page with him as to his skills, other than maybe I'm a bit more optimistic as to what he may turn into next year, but agree that he will definitely not fix all of those issues. I also don't think he will be a max player by the end of this coming season, but it is possible if he actually develops a shot.

Why exactly do you think it would be more beneficial to the Jazz to wait and match what the market throws at him, versus the Jazz working with him and extending him now? Is there something financially worked into the extensions that means more money historically over matching restricted offers? I seriously don't know and have zero numbers to back up my "hunch" or leanings towards extending. I could be wrong.

 

[LogGrad98]

Recent contract history doesn't say so. David West, arguably the best player on the Pacers just took 3 years and 36million. Ibaka is at $12.3mm per I think. Joakim Noah will make $13.4mm in 3 years time. Omer Asik, a true 7 footer gets $8.34mm. Pekovik just signed for $12mm and can earn another $1.6mm on some outside shots. Roy Hibbert is the only recent guy getting the max, and he's a proven 7'2" beast.

If this kid turns out to be as impactful as Noah then I'll be very pleased. Starting him at $12mm sounds fine after this season. Doing it before with no raises will be overpaying by $1-2mm per at most.

The question here then is what exactly is overpaying? Are they all overpaid? If we can lock him up for 9 per now instead of 12 per next season is it worth it? Given these numbers I would think yes. But, as has been correctly stated here, his game has some glaring holes. So that is the question of risk. Do you take the risk that he will never plug those holes and lock him up earlier possible for less, or do you wait and run the risk of him plugging those holes and pay more later?

 

[Myjazz]

I guess I don't get the argument at all. Favors is going to be a $12 million guy next year no matter what. Even if he comes back with out being in better shape, without improving his game and playing just like he did last year he'll get $11 million a year. We all know that's not going to happen so why is there an argument that the guy isn't going to be paid 12 mil+ a year ? He's in the best shape of his life, he's worked hard on his game and body all summer and he's gonna be getting over double the minutes. How does that not translate into way better numbers? He would have to be a complete moron, and a pathetic basketball player for this not to happen just because that's what happens. Dudes going to get paid 12+ book it, and if there's any opportunity for the jazz to sign him long term for less they should jump all over it

 

[♪alt13]

Lock up Hayward.

The Jazz starting lineup will include at least a couple rook contracts for the duration of his extension. This makes it low risk to extend his contract.

 

[franklin]

I think we are pretty much on the same page with him as to his skills, other than maybe I'm a bit more optimistic as to what he may turn into next year, but agree that he will definitely not fix all of those issues. I also don't think he will be a max player by the end of this coming season, but it is possible if he actually develops a shot.

I think it's a wash extending or waiting. I'm in favor of extending Favors at slightly more than his perceived/potential/whatever value but on a flat scale with no raises at around $12mm per. His agent knows he doesn't have a ton of upside there, but he might have a little downside even if not not much.

I have no issues with paying him an extra million and a half per to a) cut out the upside, and b) give him security and also a commitment that lets him know he's holding the reigns and has some latitude to do more of what he wants. I'm not saying he'd take advantage of an inch, but being here for 5 more years puts the ball in his court and should instill some confidence.

The question here then is what exactly is overpaying? Are they all overpaid? If we can lock him up for 9 per now instead of 12 per next season is it worth it? Given these numbers I would think yes. But, as has been correctly stated here, his game has some glaring holes. So that is the question of risk. Do you take the risk that he will never plug those holes and lock him up earlier possible for less, or do you wait and run the risk of him plugging those holes and pay more later?

He's not going for $9mm, that's for sure.

The problem teams have is overpaying "potential" like DeAndre Jordan who now looks pretty damn one sided and can't rebound worth a damn. During that contract neg's though, the nation was high on the kid. Clipps chose wrong where OKC chose right with Ibaka. I think Favors is way closer to the Ibaka end of the spectrum though, so overpaying by 10-15% isn't going to stick you cap wise going forward.

Favors will always be moveable at $12mm, I think.

I guess I don't get the argument at all. Favors is going to be a $12 million guy next year no matter what. Even if he comes back with out being in better shape, without improving his game and playing just like he did last year he'll get $11 million a year. We all know that's not going to happen so why is there an argument that the guy isn't going to be paid 12 mil+ a year ? He's in the best shape of his life, he's worked hard on his game and body all summer and he's gonna be getting over double the minutes. How does that not translate into way better numbers? He would have to be a complete moron, and a pathetic basketball player for this not to happen just because that's what happens. Dudes going to get paid 12+ book it, and if there's any opportunity for the jazz to sign him long term for less they should jump all over it

Solid post. I see you've been here for 10 months on low volume, so let me give you a belated welcome to the forum. Good stuff.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Here is what I would offer both.

Hayward - $9 MM / year
Favors - $12 MM / year


If Hayward has a great year, he will get no more than $11 MM / year. I am concerned Hayward --> Celtics in 1-2 years if we do not sign.

If Favors has a great year, he will be on track for a Max deal.

If the jazz want to resign him, Hayward has no choice but to sign with Utah.

 

[franklin]

BTW, Spazz, if he develops a respectable outside shot then he's pretty damn close to a max guy.

 

[orangello]

Here is what I would offer both.

Hayward - $9 MM / year
Favors - $12 MM / year


If Hayward has a great year, he will get no more than $11 MM / year. I am concerned Hayward --> Celtics in 1-2 years if we do not sign.

If Favors has a great year, he will be on track for a Max deal.

Sanders has done more than Favors so far and Sanders got 4 years 44 million. I think that sounds fair for Favors.

 

[Myjazz]

Thanks Franklin. I'm in need of some Jazz basketball, I barely can sleep at night. This form is starting to be my lifeline.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

BTW, Spazz, if he develops a respectable outside shot then he's pretty damn close to a max guy.

My thoughts exactly.