What's acceptable win total for next season?
- Thread starter HighlandHomie
- Start date
Add me to the 40 camp, ideally in the running for a playoff spot most of the year.
♪alt13
Well-Known Member
^This was true for the first couple weeks only. Our best performing 5 man lineup with over 100 mins is Garrett, Burks, Hayward, Evans, Kanter. It includes 4 guys from our bench.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2014/lineups/
green
Well-Known Member
I think you guys are crazy if you think we could get to 40 wins next year. That would mean that whoever we drafted, would have a historically great rookie season.
LeBron came in and averaged 20 pts a night, and Cleveland only won 35 games that year.
And no, no coach is going to take a 23 win team and add 17 wins. Sorry.
We will be in the 25-35 win range, depending on how good our rookie is, and how good our coach can teach this team to play defense. If our defense doesn't improve, we will be closer to 25 wins.
LeBron came in and averaged 20 pts a night, and Cleveland only won 35 games that year.
And no, no coach is going to take a 23 win team and add 17 wins. Sorry.
We will be in the 25-35 win range, depending on how good our rookie is, and how good our coach can teach this team to play defense. If our defense doesn't improve, we will be closer to 25 wins.
green
Well-Known Member
Also, look at Jefferson and Williams stats:
10 pts, 3 rebs, 2 assists, 45% fg, 43% 3pt
9 pts, 5 rebs, 1 assist, 44% fg, 36% 3pt
Where are we going to get that production from? We won't be able to sign any vets that can do that.
For Kanter to pick up the slack, he would have to average 22 and 12. Favors would have to average 23 and 12. And that is if we don't lose Hayward. If you throw Hayward onto the loss pile, holy crap, we will be a bad team next year.
10 pts, 3 rebs, 2 assists, 45% fg, 43% 3pt
9 pts, 5 rebs, 1 assist, 44% fg, 36% 3pt
Where are we going to get that production from? We won't be able to sign any vets that can do that.
For Kanter to pick up the slack, he would have to average 22 and 12. Favors would have to average 23 and 12. And that is if we don't lose Hayward. If you throw Hayward onto the loss pile, holy crap, we will be a bad team next year.
My view: the Jazz will likely finish with 24 wins this year. With a better coach I think that could have been 29 wins pretty easily. With a better coach and a better bench I think that could have been, say 32 wins with our same core players. With the same core players having another year of growth, I think that could increase to 36-37 wins pretty easily. Then with a very very good rookie (but not historically great), I think that could increase to 40 wins.
As franklin once astutely pointed out, if you ignore the first 15 or so games where we didn't have a point guard, and then ignore the last 35 or so games where the team clearly gave up, Corbin has this team playing essentially .500 ball. Then, consider that all of the top 5 or 6 draft picks played on college teams last year which had winning percentages of .750 or more. So average what Corbin did this year with what we'll be picking up for next year, and I think the baseline for next year has to be around the .625 mark. If we're lenient and want to build in a little wiggle room for injuries or off-nights we can say .624.
52 wins.
52 wins.
You forgot to adjust for the Jazz having the league's toughest schedule this year. Let me search around a bit for a sound statistical calculation we can apply. BRB
DutchJazzer
Banned
ok 1 question how much wins could horny given this team.
he gave phx 44 wins and possibly counting)
Also consider that the Jazz have only been outscored by a total of 525 points this season. That's only 6 games worth of points. Let that sink in for a minute. 6 games off the .500 mark is 38-44! So their current record is not representative of how well they've actually been playing.
fishonjazz
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Why not?
♪alt13
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If you only count the game when the sixers beat us then they are playing essentially 1.00 ball.
fishonjazz
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This
That would be silly.
Doublea
Well-Known Member
Exhibit A: Phoenix.
♪alt13
Well-Known Member
You are right it would be silly. It's also silly to think we are a .500 team because we almost won half of our games during the easiest part of our schedule.
Okay bordy, this is what I found. The Jazz rank 6th to last in RPI. If you use the average win % after the first 15 games to adjust those first 15 games up by 4.5 wins then the Jazz probably move up in RPI to around the teams playing 43-44%. Considering I said they were playing more like 46% ball (unadjusted for RPI) before they went 2-16 or whatever, it wasn't so preposterous to say they were already a nearly .500 team next season through growth of Trey, Hayward, Favors, Burks, and creating a properly formed bench through free agency.
green
Well-Known Member
Nice. So if you ignore 2/3rds of the season, we are pretty damn good. lol.
green
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I'll listen when you show two things: 1 - A player on the Jazz as good as Dragic and Bledose and 2 - Another team that has done the same thing.
Doublea
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Hornacek has made Dragic that good. There was an interview where Dragic said that Hornacek had gotten him good shots and allowed him to succeed. Let's not pretend that those two players were really good last year. Their coach made them succeed. I'm sure there are other examples too of teams turning it around. Our rebuild isn't going to be as long as some other if we keep our talent.