Ukraine

[Stoked]

Ukraine, and Crimea specifically have value, and keeping them could look bad. I get it. But lets say you're Putin, and you hear the following:

"Hey, Putin, there's some serious s*** going on in the Ukraine. We've a great portion of our economy running out of one area. Should we do something?"

Do you:

A. Secure the entire country with a HUGE portion of the military
B. Secure the area your economy runs through

lol, I've already told you I probably would have done the same thing. But that does not make it legal. Or earn you many friends for that matter.

So much so that:

The remainder of Ukraine will be a long time foe now

Finland and Sweden, long time neutrals, are actively considering NATO membership now.

Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia and Lithunia are all taking a much harder stance on NATO defence in regards to Russia.

 

[Stoked]

I also wonder if Russia is considering leading an anti-US & EU faction (militarily and financially)

I am sure he could get Afghanistan, N. Korea, Cuba, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, China, Cambodia, Libya, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakistan and Tajikistan to join.

 

[Harambe]

lol, I've already told you I probably would have done the same thing. But that does not make it legal. Or earn you many friends for that matter.

So much so that:

The remainder of Ukraine will be a long time foe now

Finland and Sweden, long time neutrals, are actively considering NATO membership now.

Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia, Estonia and Lithunia are all taking a much harder stance on NATO defence in regards to Russia.

But at what point do we as a people transcend that and just say "That was the right thing for a leader to do", and move on? Or if we still doubt it, hold another election with 50 parties of observers?

Based off of the evidence we have, Ukraine was headed for Civil war. Crimea overwhelmingly wanted to join Russia, Eastern Ukraine the EU. If we separate the two groups now, that's a civil war that only cost 101 lives. There's a word for that... successful.

 

[Stoked]

But at what point do we as a people transcend that and just say "That was the right thing for a leader to do", and move on? Or if we still doubt it, hold another election with 50 parties of observers?

Based off of the evidence we have, Ukraine was headed for Civil war. Crimea overwhelmingly wanted to join Russia, Eastern Ukraine the EU. If we separate the two groups now, that's a civil war that only cost 101 lives. There's a word for that... successful.

Ukraine is still headed that way. Russia taking Crimea did not stop that. Just secured some Russian interests.

That vote was boycotted by those not wanting to join the Russian Federation. Maybe it still would have passed (I think so) but I am not willing to just concede that.

Eastern Ukraine wanted to lean towards Russia. Western Ukraine was pro EU. You try to seperate them by more than their own legal processes and it will cost more than 101 lives.

Belarus to the Northeast of Ukraine is heavily pro Russian. Poland to the Northwest is freaking out and calling for a permanent NATO presence of 10,0oo troops. Bulgaria and Hungary, also NATO members to the southwest of Ukraine are skittish as well.

They are all worried this is part of a larger game. If Russia pushes thru and takes "New Russia" then I think this escalates into war. Kiev wont sit by and lose all that. They cannot afford to.

 

[Harambe]

Ukraine is still headed that way. Russia taking Crimea did not stop that. Just secured some Russian interests.

That vote was boycotted by those not wanting to join the Russian Federation. Maybe it still would have passed (I think so) but I am not willing to just concede that.

Eastern Ukraine wanted to lean towards Russia. Western Ukraine was pro EU. You try to seperate them by more than their own legal processes and it will cost more than 101 lives.

Belarus to the Northeast of Ukraine is heavily pro Russian. Poland to the Northwest is freaking out and calling for a permanent NATO presence of 10,0oo troops. Bulgaria and Hungary, also NATO members to the southwest of Ukraine are skittish as well.

They are all worried this is part of a larger game. If Russia pushes thru and takes "New Russia" then I think this escalates into war. Kiev wont sit by and lose all that. They cannot afford to.

There comes a time when you just have to stop believing in the past, and start believing in the future. The future is letting people decide for themselves. The people have spoken, there was a vote, and Crimea wants Russia, not EU.

Let them eat cake!

So Kiev doesn't wanna lose out on the tax dollars gained from the region.. shoulda represented that region better. That's their shortcomings.

When we decided we wanted to be free of England, it was a long, terrible, bloody conflict. But we decided that and didn't give a **** what those in England said.

What's so different here? There's no trip across the Atlantic this time?

 

[Stoked]

There comes a time when you just have to stop believing in the past, and start believing in the future. The future is letting people decide for themselves. The people have spoken, there was a vote, and Crimea wants Russia, not EU.

Let them eat cake!

So Kiev doesn't wanna lose out on the tax dollars gained from the region.. shoulda represented that region better. That's their shortcomings.

When we decided we wanted to be free of England, it was a long, terrible, bloody conflict. But we decided that and didn't give a **** what those in England said.

What's so different here? There's no trip across the Atlantic this time?

So basically you would allow any region/state/province...to vote to join or leave any country at any time. Regardless of the legal way to do so in that area.

If that is the way of the future then there is some major restructuring to be done.

 

[Harambe]

So basically you would allow any region/state/province...to vote to join or leave any country at any time. Regardless of the legal way to do so in that area.

If that is the way of the future then there is some major restructuring to be done.

Not at any time. If there's a vote from that sate/province/region that is overwhelmingly(better than 2/3's) for a change to another country, AND the other country is prepared to deal with that state/province/region's issues(economically and socially), why the heck not?

Seems like a heck of a lot better idea than war.

 

[dodo]

Based off of the evidence we have, Ukraine was headed for Civil war. Crimea overwhelmingly wanted to join Russia, Eastern Ukraine the EU

What is the evidence you have? There was NOT signs of civil war in Crimea. I would also question the "overwhelming" argument. The so called "referendum" was a complete joke. Russian special ops and other shock troops guarding the ballots. Voting boxes made of transparent plastic, Ukranian activists taken into the woods and either never heard of again or beaten and forced to leave Crimea. You have to be really naive to believe this was anything but a very successful Russian government operation to annex a part of Ukraine. And BTW, Crimea's ethnic make up is (according to 2001 census) 58% Russian, 24% Ukranian ans 12% Tatars. While Russian population is predominant, it is not overwhelmingly predominant. Guess how 24% Ukranians and 12% Tatars would've voted? And I bet you not all of the 58% russians will vote to join. So umm yeah. It was a highway robbery basically...

 

[Harambe]

What is the evidence you have? There was NOT signs of civil war in Crimea.

Been over that... little to no signs of civil war in Crimea but plenty in the Ukraine as a country. Russia came in and protected it's interest from, what easily could have been war across the country. The evidence we have is from observers that found nothing wrong.

I would also question the "overwhelming" argument. The so called "referendum" was a complete joke.

We have no evidence it was a joke or unfair, and there are observers from 21 countries that found no evidence of tampering.

Russian special ops and other shock troops guarding the ballots. Voting boxes made of transparent plastic, Ukranian activists taken into the woods and either never heard of again or beaten and forced to leave Crimea. You have to be really naive to believe this was anything but a very successful Russian government operation to annex a part of Ukraine. And BTW, Crimea's ethnic make up is (according to 2001 census) 58% Russian, 24% Ukranian ans 12% Tatars. While Russian population is predominant, it is not overwhelmingly predominant. Guess how 24% Ukranians and 12% Tatars would've voted? And I bet you not all of the 58% russians will vote to join. So umm yeah. It was a highway robbery basically...

That's a great belief, and it might even be right, but where's the evidence?

Take the names out of it. X saw that Y, as a country, was in unrest, didn't have a leader, and there are reports of death in the capital. X depends on Y for the port it uses. X can not simply invade the country and police the whole thing, as it'd be viewed as a hostile take over... so they just come in and secure the ports.

In thanks, that section of Y is very thankful for the increased security and control that X provided.

Is it all that unimaginable to think that that section of Y, now called Z, no longer wants to be a part of X for two reasons; the first being sketchy leadership of X, the second they don't believe that X can keep the peace.

Are we seriously being so blinded by the remnants of the cold war that we can't give Y the benefit of the doubt EVEN AFTER there is no hard evidence of tampering in an election, with our own observers present?

 

[Stoked]

This appears to be ratcheting back up.

The agreement has pretty much failed compeltely. The pro-Russian insurgents/protestors/terrorits/freedomfighters have rejected the proposal and will not disarm or leave their positions. This has resulted in the use of the Ukrainian armed forces. A half dozen or so people have died so far. Russia is pissed and is threatening to invade. They have started active drills with their troops along the Ukrianian border (estimated to be about 40,000 troops).

A Ukrainian chopper was just blown up with a rocket propelled grenade.

America is providing non lethal aid to the Ukrianian military (field medical kits, helmets, cooking equipment...)

Russian troops are actively drilling on the Ukrainian border.

American, Canadian, French, British and German fighter jets (30-40 jets total. Some are older models such as F15s and F16s) have been dispatched to Poland and the Baltic states.

Canada and Russia are in a *** for tat deportation of diplomats. Russia threatened sanctions against Canada.

Russia has a pair of ships off the American southeast coast, near Cuba. An ocean going tug and a spy ship.

5 NATO minesweeper ships have been dispatched to the Baltic Sea. The USS Taylor (an old guided missle frigate) and two other NATO ships are in the Black Sea.

600 American paratroopers just landed in Poland for excersizes.

British and Dutch warplanes intercepted a pair of Russian bombers that were approaching Dutch airspace.

Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania and Bulgaria are all calling for even more NATO presence and forces. Particularly Estonia and Poland.

I'm not worried about the end of the world. I just find the political and military maneuvering of the two sides interesting. Also like to read how others see these moves. Gives me perspectives I myself won't see.

 

[dodo]

This appears to be ratcheting back up.

The agreement has pretty much failed compeltely. The pro-Russian insurgents/protestors/terrorits/freedomfighters have rejected the proposal and will not disarm or leave their positions. This has resulted in the use of the Ukrainian armed forces. A half dozen or so people have died so far. Russia is pissed and is threatening to invade. They have started active drills with their troops along the Ukrianian border (estimated to be about 40,000 troops).

A Ukrainian chopper was just blown up with a rocket propelled grenade.

America is providing non lethal aid to the Ukrianian military (field medical kits, helmets, cooking equipment...)

Russian troops are actively drilling on the Ukrainian border.

American, Canadian, French, British and German fighter jets (30-40 jets total. Some are older models such as F15s and F16s) have been dispatched to Poland and the Baltic states.

Canada and Russia are in a *** for tat deportation of diplomats. Russia threatened sanctions against Canada.

Russia has a pair of ships off the American southeast coast, near Cuba. An ocean going tug and a spy ship.

5 NATO minesweeper ships have been dispatched to the Baltic Sea. The USS Taylor (an old guided missle frigate) and two other NATO ships are in the Black Sea.

600 American paratroopers just landed in Poland for excersizes.

British and Dutch warplanes intercepted a pair of Russian bombers that were approaching Dutch airspace.

Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania and Bulgaria are all calling for even more NATO presence and forces. Particularly Estonia and Poland.

I'm not worried about the end of the world. I just find the political and military maneuvering of the two sides interesting. Also like to read how others see these moves. Gives me perspectives I myself won't see.

I do agree things are not looking up, but that doesn't necessary mean MAD. I think a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine looks more and more probable. One should have no doubt that the pro-russian paramilitaries acting up there are steered and probably organized by GRU and other Russian intelligence agencies. The Ukranians are put in an impossible situation - just like in the Crimea. The **** will go down as Putin thinks fit.

BTW i googled some of the events you've listed (that escaped my twitter and FB news feeds). Apparently the Canada/Russian tensions and diplomat expels are related to the Arctic exploration disputes. Not directly related to the situation in Ukraine, though those tensions are probably amplified by whats going on there.

Also the bomber interception is also a common thing that has happened regularly in the past...

One thing I don't see is how Russia will economically sustain this. I guess as long as gas sales flow, it will be ok and the west cannot shut off that siphon. But still I see real damage done to the Russian economy

 

[Stoked]

I do agree things are not looking up, but that doesn't necessary mean MAD. I think a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine looks more and more probable. One should have no doubt that the pro-russian paramilitaries acting up there are steered and probably organized by GRU and other Russian intelligence agencies. The Ukranians are put in an impossible situation - just like in the Crimea. The **** will go down as Putin thinks fit.

BTW i googled some of the events you've listed (that escaped my twitter and FB news feeds). Apparently the Canada/Russian tensions and diplomat expels are related to the Arctic exploration disputes. Not directly related to the situation in Ukraine, though those tensions are probably amplified by whats going on there.

Also the bomber interception is also a common thing that has happened regularly in the past...

One thing I don't see is how Russia will economically sustain this. I guess as long as gas sales flow, it will be ok and the west cannot shut off that siphon. But still I see real damage done to the Russian economy

The Canadian/Russian diplomatic tussle is over a side issue but I think the timing, right after the Canadian announcement to send planes to Poland, is interesting.

As for the Russian bombers getting meet by NATO fighters. It happens about 4 times a year from what I read. But again any little tussle between NATO and the Russian Federation only serves to heighten tension at this point.

As for the economic point you made about Russia. Just saw an article indicating that Russia was making energy related "moves" in Africa. Also Poland and France are leading the European charge to divest Europe from Russian gas.

Move, counter move.

 

[Stoked]

I am very surprised that Russia, or perhaps China, has not lead the formation of an anti "west/america" economic and military bloc. I could see potential members as Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Ecuador, Eritea, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Khazakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, N. Korea, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Russia, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Venezuela, Uzbekistan and the Palestinians.

That is 24 countries and 1 that should be. Some of them are already fairly close. Such as China and Cambodia, Russia with Belarus and some of the "stans" and the Central and S. American countries.

 

[Duck Rodgers]

I am very surprised that Russia, or perhaps China, has not lead the formation of an anti "west/america" economic and military bloc. I could see potential members as Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Ecuador, Eritea, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Khazakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, N. Korea, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Russia, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Venezuela, Uzbekistan and the Palestinians.

That is 24 countries and 1 that should be. Some of them are already fairly close. Such as China and Cambodia, Russia with Belarus and some of the "stans" and the Central and S. American countries.

You could find better turds to align with in the punch bowl at one of Gameface's poker games.

 

[Stoked]

You could find better turds to align with in the punch bowl at one of Gameface's poker games.

That may be true but they seems to slowly be grouping anyways. Such as Iran reaching out to the nations I mentioned that are in the western hemisphere.

 

[Stoked]

More updates:

The Pentagon has said that Russian warplanes have violated Ukraine's airspace several times over the last 24 hours.

The G7 met and has agreed to "move swiftly" on new sanctions against Russian.

Moscow and Washington have been making regular calls back and forth over Ukraine. Russia has suspended all high level communications between the Russian and American governments.

OSCE (international monitors) have been detained in Slaviansk by pro-Russian demonstrators.

 

[Duck Rodgers]

That may be true but they seems to slowly be grouping anyways. Such as Iran reaching out to the nations I mentioned that are in the western hemisphere.

Well, my main objection was China being in that grouping anyhow. Russia clearly needs friends right now....I just don't think China really has anybody's back that they are perceived as having except for in their rhetoric posture of peacemaker in the context of status quo for the world.... so for them to formally be picking sides, doesn't make any sense to me right now. I think their "friends" with all strategy is working brilliantly. Japan is their most heated enemy publicly and they still do 350 billion $$$ in trade with them. China has already got highway robbery concessions like asset backed guaranteed debt deals from the West. Nobody bats an eye when they make trade deals in Yuan instead of dollars. They've made great inroads into Africa. They've got it pretty good. Incrementalism seems to be working. Though, a big portion of their economy is a total fraud so maybe there will be some desperate moves flowing from having to deal with that.

 

[Duck Rodgers]

Does anyone else chuckle when they see "G-7"? It's very high school cliquish. I just picture some brown noser diplomat really emphasizing the 7 while trying to broker some kind of deal with the Russians.

 

[Stoked]

Well, my main objection was China being in that grouping anyhow. Russia clearly needs friends right now....I just don't think China really has anybody's back that they are perceived as having except for in their rhetoric posture of peacemaker in the context of status quo for the world.... so for them to formally be picking sides, doesn't make any sense to me right now. I think their "friends" with all strategy is working brilliantly. Japan is their most heated enemy publicly and they still do 350 billion $$$ in trade with them. China has already got highway robbery concessions like asset backed guaranteed debt deals from the West. Nobody bats an eye when they make trade deals in Yuan instead of dollars. They've made great inroads into Africa. They've got it pretty good. Incrementalism seems to be working. Though, a big portion of their economy is a total fraud so maybe there will be some desperate moves flowing from having to deal with that.

Fair enough. That was only a potential members list. of course there would be obstacles and not everyone would join.

 

[Duck Rodgers]

Hmmmmmmmm:

https://burisma.com/hunter-biden-joins-the-team-of-burisma-holdings/

Burisma Holdings, Ukraine’s largest private gas producer, has expanded its Board of Directors by bringing on Mr. R Hunter Biden as a new director.

These guys(our 'ruling' class) sure have no shame, huh?