quick summary of link to article by LjJazzman for those non-readers.
- Rex Chapman evaluated one-and-done players since 2006
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- Group 1: one year players who are 1st Team All-Conference or better (All American/ POY) and drafted top10, are essentially assured to be "good to great" NBA players. (6 of 16 are all stars) He defines these players as those who dominated their peers in college - and thus are doing so in NBA
- Group 2: one year players who are not All Conf, but are FREAKISHLY good at something (athletic usually) and are drafted top 19, will be players in NBA. (~50% are double figure scores and the 50% are "on the rise.") Derrick and Enes are in this group. A couple of players drafted outside of 19 are successful, but that is not the rule.
Group 3: one year players who are drafted after 19 – 50% of them are busts and the other half play in the NBA at scrub level.
He lists the one and done players from this year
group 1:
*Andrew Wiggins – Kansas
*Julius Randle – Kentucky
*Jabari Parker – Duke
*Aaron Gordon – Arizona
group 2
*Tyler Ennis – Syracuse
*Joel Embiid – Kansas
*Noah Vonleh – Indiana
*Zach LaVine – UCLA (He's debatable...)
He says no other freshmen should come out. Stay in college and practice your game and be taught the game. Otherwise, you'll ride the pine and not ever play enough to reach your full potential.
Thanks, on behalf of the reading impaired. Why wouldn't Embiid be put in Group 1? I thought he dominated quite a few of his games.