1-11

[Siro]

How is that misinformation?

The information is correct. Maybe the way I interpret it is wrong, but that is subjective.

It is misinformation to say that it is the reason for his low percentage, when shots taken with 8 seconds or less are his HIGHEST percent shots. There is no interpretation, numbers are numbers. He doesn't shoot well regardless of remaining time on the shot clock, and normalizing his final 3 second shots to be on par with the rest of the league's PGs barely moves his percentage. This is ignoring the fact that he is the main reason for these late shots, or that defenses have zero respect for his shot, and allow him to take as many open 3s as he wants.

There is no excuse for his suckage. He just sucks.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It is misinformation to say that it is the reason for his low percentage, when shots taken with 8 seconds or less are his HIGHEST percent shots. There is no interpretation, numbers are numbers. He doesn't shoot well regardless of remaining time on the shot clock, and normalizing his final 3 second shots to be on par with the rest of the league's PGs barely moves his percentage. This is ignoring the fact that he is the main reason for these late shots, or that defenses have zero respect for his shot, and allow him to take as many open 3s as he wants.

There is no excuse for his suckage. He just sucks.

Umm, I was talking about 6 seconds left.... It is subjective. You can't just normalize and have everything else be constant.

He is taking a ton of shots under time pressure, which makes it harder to get in rhythm and be consistent when he is constantly in a position when he has to put up bad shots.

Also disagree that teams don't respect his 3pt shot. I think they live with him taking mid-range shots, because allowing mid-range shots is the analytical fad and teams (especially the Rockets, like we saw last game) want players to take mid-range shots.

 

[da ThRONe]

I feel like you already know that this isn't true. Here are his shot clock usage stats:Secs.
Att.
eFG%
Ast'd
Blk'd
Pts
0-10
34% .454 48% 4% 4.0
11-15
22% .420 36% 6% 2.4
16-20
25% .491 52% 1% 3.2
21+
18% .377 44% 2% 1.8
Crunch
43% .444 49% 2% 4.9

So his highest percentage shots are with 8 seconds remaining. Most shots are taken in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and he hits around his season average on those. He does take 18% of his shots with only 3 seconds left, and he doesn't hit many of them. With those shots taken into account, his FG% goes from 36.7 to about 37.8. So no that's not the reason for his **** shooting, Why you keep repeating the same misinformation is beyond me.

Which part isn't true? Nothing you added dispute anything he put in his post. He talks about shooting in 6 secs and you talk about 8 secs and 3 secs.

Based on your stats if I'm reading it correctly. When Trey shoots between 16-20 secs is when he's most effieicent which if anything supports the theory that he's better shooting when he has more time which usually means more options.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Which part isn't true? Nothing you added dispute anything he put in his post. He talks about shooting in 6 secs and you talk about 8 secs and 3 secs.

Based on your stats if I'm reading it correctly. When Trey shoots between 16-20 secs is when he's most effieicent which if anything supports the theory that he's better shooting when he has more time which usually means more options.

Yup, and my point is if the offense flows better and the shots are more consistent, he would be better prepared mentally to take and make good shots. Not saying he is without blame for the root of the problem, but he isn't fully to blame.

 

[da ThRONe]

Yup, and my point is if the offense flows better and the shots are more consistent, he would be better prepared mentally to take and make good shots. Not saying he is without blame for the root of the problem, but he isn't fully to blame.

Not only that he's using eFG% when you talk about raw FG%. I don't mind a person trying to correct things, but he's using different parameters for his point. And even still the stats he produces doesn't even support his on debunking efforts to prove that where the shot clocks is has no impact on Burke's eFG%'s when it clearly does.

 

[Siro]

Which part isn't true? Nothing you added dispute anything he put in his post. He talks about shooting in 6 secs and you talk about 8 secs and 3 secs.

Based on your stats if I'm reading it correctly. When Trey shoots between 16-20 secs is when he's most effieicent which if anything supports the theory that he's better shooting when he has more time which usually means more options.

I concede that it was unfair to call Cy's numbers misinformation, because there is indeed a difference between "last 6 seconds" and "8-3 seconds before shot clock expires". But, the difference isn't all that important because Trey's shooting still sucks even when you take that into account. Even if you remove all of shots taken with 3 seconds left, we still have:

(0.427*0.454)+(0.268*0.42)+(0.305*0.491) = 45.6 eFG%

Plugging that into: eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PTM)) / FGA

We get a FG% (FGM/FGA) of 37.8%.

So even if we disregard all of his final 3 second shots (ridiculous since all players still have to take some), he still shoots a **** percentage.

Edit: And before someone says "oh, but that's 3 seconds, not 6". Taking all 6 seconds into account would make his FG% even worse, since he shoots a relatively high percent between 8-3 seconds!

Edit2: The percentages for the numbers above were derived by removing all the shots taken in the last 3 seconds and renormalizing as such : 0.34/0.82, 0.22/0.82, 0.25/0.82. Last 3 second shots were also taken out of FGM, 3PTM, FGA.

 

[da ThRONe]

I concede that it was unfair to call Cy's numbers misinformation, because there is indeed a difference between "last 6 seconds" and "8-3 seconds before shot clock expires". But, the difference isn't all that important because Trey's shooting still sucks even when you take that into account. Even if you remove all of shots taken with 3 seconds left, we still have:

(0.427*0.454)+(0.268*0.42)+(0.305*0.491) = 45.6 eFG%

Plugging that into: eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PTM)) / FGA

We get a FG% (FGM/FGA) of 37.8%.

So even if we disregard all of his final 3 second shots (ridiculous since all players still have to take some), he still shoots a **** percentage.

Edit: And before someone says "oh, but that's 3 seconds, not 6". Taking all 6 seconds into account would make his FG% even worse, since he shoots a relatively high percent between 8-3 seconds!

Edit2: The percentages for the numbers above were derived by removing all the shots taken in the last 3 seconds and renormalizing as such : 0.34/0.82, 0.22/0.82, 0.25/0.82. Last 3 second shots were also taken out of FGM, 3PTM, FGA.

Again this is a incomplete analysis. This assumes that if you take all his shots in between 8-3 secs It'll hurt his overall shooting percentage. It could be that Burke is shooting an insanely high percentage between 8-6 secs in which is offset by a terrible percentage in the 6-3 second range. Those two seconds may not seem like a lot but is 40% of the 8-3sec window. So if sticking to the original number of 6secs or less just dismissing those 2 seconds could mean all the difference in the world.

 

[Siro]

Again this is a incomplete analysis. This assumes that if you take all his shots in between 8-3 secs It'll hurt his overall shooting percentage. It could be that Burke is shooting an insanely high percentage between 8-6 secs in which is offset by a terrible percentage in the 6-3 second range. Those two seconds may not seem like a lot but is 40% of the 8-3sec window. So if sticking to the original number of 6secs or less just dismissing those 2 seconds could mean all the difference in the world.

This is religious apologetics level of reaching. It would be easier for you to just admit you're wrong, but if Cy can provide where he got his 6 seconds number, I'll be happy to show you that Burke sucks regardless of how you want to manipulate the numbers. Of course there is a chance that Burke is actually shooting a godly percentage in those 2 seconds that we have no concrete numbers for! After all, people DO win the lottery. [snicker]

 

[Spinoza]

Remember how I said the board will turn on Burke once he has a couple of off nights? Then Cy was like "nah, people will give him the benefit of the doubt" and I'm like "yah right, lol".

So Cy was wrong for once? Cause honestly that guy's been on a roll lately with his predictions.

 

[Siro]

So Cy was wrong for once? Cause honestly that guy's been on a roll lately with his predictions.

Is that sarcasm? I think Cy is pretty knowledgeable when it comes to basketball.

 

[Spinoza]

Trey Burke has taken 179 shots in the final 6 seconds of the shot clock, 2nd most in the NBA.

Hayward is 8th with 151.

That is the biggest reason Trey's FG% sucks. You can blame it on him stopping the ball, but it's not all his fault. Our offense just isn't that good and when you have as many wings who won't shoot (Sap and Ingles) it can make things hard on the PG.

So that's a 20% weight for shots taken with under 6 seconds on the shot clock.

What is his average on those shots? If it was the biggest reason for his poor percentage it would have to be something like 15-20%. And any idea on what the league average is on shots taken with under 6 seconds on the shot clock?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

This is religious apologetics level of reaching. It would be easier for you to just admit you're wrong, but if Cy can provide where he got his 6 seconds number, I'll be happy to show you that Burke sucks regardless of how you want to manipulate the numbers. Of course there is a chance that Burke is actually shooting a godly percentage in those 2 seconds that we have no concrete numbers for! After all, people DO win the lottery. [snicker]

David Locke twitter from a retweet from some advanced stats dude.

David Locke @Lockedonsports · 8h 8 hours ago
Cool note from @johnschuhmann Trey Burke has taken 2nd most amount of shots in final 6 secs of shot clock this year 179. Hayward 8th 151

 

[Siro]

David Locke twitter from a retweet from some advanced stats dude.

Oh. That's not enough info. I wish he provided percent made on those shots.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Oh. That's not enough info. I wish he provided percent made on those shots.

Just go to NBA.com stats page.....

 

[Spinoza]

Is that sarcasm? I think Cy is pretty knowledgeable when it comes to basketball.

No. I had noticed him being right on a lot of stuff lately, e.g., saying Exum was going to have a big game out of nowhere and then Exum scores 14 points on 5-6 shooting.

And yea, Cy's opinion of him is the only reason I have some hope left for Burke. Otherwise, I would declare him a bust and move on.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I just have hopes that Burke will one day play like he played in the pre-season for an entire season.

 

[Spinoza]

Here's a crazy stat I haven't seen referenced yet:

Burke is 1-23 in his last 23 shots. He missed his last 4 shots of the Brooklyn game, there's the 1-11 that started this thread, and then he went 0-8 last game. That has to be some kind of record.

 

[da ThRONe]

1st how can I be wrong when I have not presented a case at all?

2nd you are providing an incomplete agrument because you aren't sticking to the parameters that you original set out to debunk.

We can all agree Burke has shot the ball terribly so far in his career. Nobody is disagreeing with that at all. Cy has just offered up a potential reason. You have tried to discredit that reasoning, but IMO have failed to address the OP.

 

[Getting Traded]

Well, to look at this stat from another perspective, why is Trey who has the worse shooting percentage on the team taking those shots? If he has the ball in his hands, he should be creating a shot for someone with a better percentage. That is what a good PG does.

 

[da ThRONe]

Well, to look at this stat from another perspective, why is Trey who has the worse shooting percentage on the team taking those shots? If he has the ball in his hands, he should be creating a shot for someone with a better percentage. That is what a good PG does.

1st this is assuming Trey doesn't have the best shooting percentage in those situation.

However this is true. Clearly Burke has some significant flaws to his game otherwise we wouldn't be having this discussion. However he's a second year player. This is something that he can feel out. Given his skill set leaving Michigan making those plays were what made Trey special. Not sure why he's not making those plays far more than he is. The question then becomes is this something that's correctable. I say given he's done so at a high level competition I think it's an easy yes.