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#2 pick

ah, summer on an NBA board... where we spend more time discussing who likes whom and alleging personal vendetta than discussing basketball. *sigh*
 
theNBAnerd said:
well whatever it has to do with, it's a trend that's pretty well established in history. in the last five years, NO team has managed to secure a top-3 pick without "moving up" using their own first-rounder. only twice has it happened with top five picks (both times it was #5), and only one additional time if we widen that to top 10 picks.

that means 94% of the time, a team in the top 10 will not trade its pick for anything other than a package centered around a pick in the same draft. and that's true 100% of the time for top 3 picks.

here are all trades in the past five drafts where a team got a pick without "moving up", and what it cost them to do so -- https://www.jazzbros.com/2012/06/the-cost-of-a-first-rounder/
Click to expand...

Taking a five year snippet is not "pretty well established in history", but yeah, it's about as close to board consensus as we can get that draft picks are way overpriced prior to the draft.

Then again, top draft picks are very often sold in advance, so it's not like it's out of the realm of possibility to pick up a pick at a reasonable price. I think it takes a GM who believes his team has potential to make a deep push. That's pretty rare with high lottery pick teams though.
 
franklin said:
Taking a five year snippet is not "pretty well established in history", but yeah, it's about as close to board consensus as we can get that draft picks are way overpriced prior to the draft.

Then again, top draft picks are very often sold in advance, so it's not like it's out of the realm of possibility to pick up a pick at a reasonable price. I think it takes a GM who believes his team has potential to make a deep push. That's pretty rare with high lottery pick teams though.
Click to expand...

i could have gone back further, but my employer expects me to occasionally, you know, work.

as for your second paragraph, i actually included those types of trades, too. the only kind i didn't include is when a future first is included as part of a deal and that pick winds up being a high pick. in my mind, that doesn't reflect the price of buying a first-rounder, but rather is part of a larger equation. so i really just included deals leading up to the draft or on draft day where a team added a first round pick without giving one up to move. that's the situation that's applicable to the jazz anyway.
 
Any GM who trades away a second over all pick for anything less than a perennial all star is an idiot. The only thing on our team close to that is Favors.

Not happening.

Maybe we should be dicussing something past ten, if we dont want to let go of any of our young guys.
 
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