From Givony at DX on the Jazz's pick: "This is where the draft really starts seemingly, as soon as the consensus top two picks are off the board. The discrepancy between the prospects perceived to be the 3rd and 10th best talents is about as small as we can remember in our eight years covering the draft ..." Chad Ford's podcast also mentioned that after #2, the draft looks like a whole raft of role players. If true (and I have no idea if these statements are), I wonder if this makes any sense:
Go for defense. Just accept the fact that this draft isn't going to improve our offense (at least for three years). Instead, try to improve the make-up of the team in terms of defense, intensity, length, potential, and quality people.
To me there's four guys that may not be great offensive players, but could really help here (Knight, Biyombo, Leonard, Singleton). Say you could turn next year's GS pick and something else modest into Biyombo, you draft Knight with 3, and get the SF defender (likely Singleton) at 12. Would you do it?
Here's my rationale: I think we overrate the GS pick. I think there's less than 50% chance it gives us a lottery pick (GS could make playoffs, or be so bad that the protection kicks in), and even if it does get in the lottery, it will be in the no-man's land of the lottery bottom. We'll probably be bad next year, so our own pick should be good, and next year might be a better year for going after an offensive player. And finally, good defensive teams almost always make the playoffs. Of the top 5 defensive teams over the past 9 years (Hollinger defensive efficiency), only 2 of those 45 teams did not make the playoffs (this year's Bucks and 02-03 Nuggets, which was a 17-win team -- truly bad offense). Would you feel confident enough that given a few years Biyombo, Favors, Singleton, Hayward, and Knight could be the basis of a top-five defensive team? With enough offense?