2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[Handlogten's Heros]

Bilal's lack of aggression and only recently joining the senior team will keep him from rising too high - it's a red flag. But it is not unheard of a player to flip a switch. He just had a growth spurt and another could be coming - it is not surprising that his style of play is adjusting.

I'm trying to think of examples and drawing a blank. Not sure there are guys that have risen from second round pick to top10 without something MAJOR happening. He may have "flipped a switch" but that doesn't mean he will be able to jump up super far in the draft.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Taking dick at 9 is not safe.

It is... he's an nba player with a really important nba skill.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It is... he's an nba player with a really important nba skill.

He also parlays his obvious shooting ability into going back door/cutting and finishing at a really good clip. Also young. Also big. Also moves the ball well and puts in effort on defense.

If the shot translates and I honestly don’t know why it wouldn’t, then you have to commit defensive attention and the completeness of his game can shine even when the shot isn’t falling. You never ignore really good shooters and getting commitment that far from the hoop opens up so much.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think packaging #16 and #28 might get the Jazz up to #14 or #13 depending on other circumstances. In other words, the Jazz might have the ability to chase someone in the late lottery.

I am still convinced we revisit a John Collins trade on draft night (maybe depends on if we take Hendricks at #9). Could be JC and #15 for KO and #28.

Having 9, 15, 16 you can manipulate that part of the draft a bit.

 

[KqWIN]

I mean that's a good point BUT guys get anchored to a range sometimes... I don't know how different the levels of competition are between JV french and OTE... but I would absolutely be willing to risk waiting on Bilal until #16. It would be a pretty rare rise. If that is the guy I'd consider moving back a few spots from #9. I would not reach.

Yeah, the level of competition stuff is hard to get a good grasp of. Bilal being 18 and one of the youngest players in the draft makes me feel better about it. He's not 20 years old dominating younger players.

I think your POV is understandable. It really comes down to how you rank the prospects in that group. If you take Bilal at #9, you secure him and it pushes one player back. You don't get your first choice of the Dick/Hendricks/Black/Wallace, but maybe your last choice. I'm super high on Bilal, so I would secure him at #9 and settle for who falls. It would be sick to get Black/Bilal, and that only happens if you take Black first....but I'm fine with Bilal/Bufkin or Bilal/George. OTOH, if you don't think that Bilal is up there in the Dick/Hendricks/Black/Wallace range and are fine with Rupert/Sidy instead you just wait. Sidy and Rupert have been seen as better prospects ever since....last week? I can acknowledge how it may seem odd to be so adamant about Bilal at #9.

These last few senior games will be big for Bilal's draft stock. We'll have a better idea of what the "risk" of losing him is if we wait for him at #16 closer to the draft and after the season ends. If he has some more double digit scoring games he will keep rising and it gets very uncomfortable for me. I'm dying for him to get 10-15 shots in a senior game, but that ain't happening in his current role.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Yeah, the level of competition stuff is hard to get a good grasp of. Bilal being 18 and one of the youngest players in the draft makes me feel better about it. He's not 20 years old dominating younger players.

I think your POV is understandable. It really comes down to how you rank the prospects in that group. If you take Bilal at #9, you secure him and it pushes one player back. You don't get your first choice of the Dick/Hendricks/Black/Wallace, but maybe your last choice. I'm super high on Bilal, so I would secure him at #9 and settle for who falls. It would be sick to get Black/Bilal, and that only happens if you take Black first....but I'm fine with Bilal/Bufkin or Bilal/George. OTOH, if you don't think that Bilal is up there in the Dick/Hendricks/Black/Wallace range and are fine with Rupert/Sidy instead you just wait. Sidy and Rupert have been seen as better prospects ever since....last week? I can acknowledge how it may seem odd to be so adamant about Bilal at #9.

These last few senior games will be big for Bilal's draft stock. We'll have a better idea of what the "risk" of losing him is if we wait for him at #16 closer to the draft and after the season ends. If he has some more double digit scoring games he will keep rising and it gets very uncomfortable for me. I'm dying for him to get 10-15 shots in a senior game, but that ain't happening in his current role.

I say this with all due respect but this take is insanity.

 

[KqWIN]

I say this with all due respect but this take is insanity.

It was insanity to consider him at #16 a couple weeks ago and insanity to consider at #28 a couple months ago. #9 might be too far, but I am super high on him. I don't know if it's a hotter take than Dick top 5.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It was insanity to consider him at #16 a couple weeks ago and insanity to consider at #28 a couple months ago. #9 might be too far, but I am super high on him. I don't know if it's a hotter take than Dick top 5.

In a redraft. Dick isn’t going top 5 nor should he.

And it is a hotter take. If that happens, it’ll bring the house down in the vein of Anthony Bennett going #1.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

He also parlays his obvious shooting ability into going back door/cutting and finishing at a really good clip. Also young. Also big. Also moves the ball well and puts in effort on defense.

If the shot translates and I honestly don’t know why it wouldn’t, then you have to commit defensive attention and the completeness of his game can shine even when the shot isn’t falling. You never ignore really good shooters and getting commitment that far from the hoop opens up so much.

and he's smart and plays hard on both ends. runs the court, and just moves well without the ball in general. plus the things you mentioned. i do worry a tad about the shot translating- but that's probably just me being dumb. but he just does a lot of things well as is an adequate athlete.

 

[David Hume]

I've heard that Shai - JHS comparison multiple times now. It's classic bait. JHS was a good mid range player and Shai is a very good mid range player. Both are very crafty, and yeah I could see JHS becoming very good like Shai is in the middle game. I get that this is why the comparison is made.....but it completely falls apart because Shai is elite at things JHS is awful at. The one skill may be comparable, but there's no way in hell they are comparable players.

“Comparison” is a vague word. It’s not meant to be the same as “equate.” Take it more like a shorthand for “compare and contrast.”

 

[NUMBERICA]

and he's smart and plays hard on both ends. runs the court, and just moves well without the ball in general. plus the things you mentioned. i do worry a tad about the shot translating- but that's probably just me being dumb. but he just does a lot of things well as is an adequate athlete.

And there’s a pretty small window (after HS) where one can believe with confidence that a player can improve their strength and athleticism, and 18/19 is the middle of that window.

 

[KqWIN]

“Comparison” is a vague word. It’s not meant to be the same as “equate.” Take it more like a shorthand for “compare and contrast.”

Sure....I just wouldn't compare two players when one's greatest strength is one of the other's biggest red flags.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm trying to think of examples and drawing a blank. Not sure there are guys that have risen from second round pick to top10 without something MAJOR happening. He may have "flipped a switch" but that doesn't mean he will be able to jump up super far in the draft.

Hendo was off draft boards to being a first round prospect to now being a projected top 10 pick pretty quickly.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I am still convinced we revisit a John Collins trade on draft night (maybe depends on if we take Hendricks at #9). Could be JC and #15 for KO and #28.

Having 9, 15, 16 you can manipulate that part of the draft a bit.

The price of taking on JC is only going up with his playoff performances.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Hendo was off draft boards to being a first round prospect to now being a projected top 10 pick pretty quickly.

Nah... it was 30+ games of production. He got off to a quick start and everyone took notice. There is a decent sample size there (about as good of a sample as you will get from a Freshmen). Early in the season he got bumped to a guy in the 20s and wriggled his way up from there.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Hendo was off draft boards to being a first round prospect to now being a projected top 10 pick pretty quickly.

I did some google searches for before the season started and this was the only ranking I found Hendricks in.

College basketball preview | Top 100 freshmen

Breaking down the top 100 freshmen in the country wasn’t simply an exercise in copying the rankings from the Class of 2022. Some first-year players will have a greater opportunity

www.news-gazette.com

Was rated as the 62nd best Freshman. Then after a month he started getting talked about as a potential one and done and by the end of November he was a trendy projected first rounder then by the end of December he started to be projected lottery then in the last couple months he's become a top 10 guy.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Nah... it was 30+ games of production. He got off to a quick start and everyone took notice. There is a decent sample size there (about as good of a sample as you will get from a Freshmen). Early in the season he got bumped to a guy in the 20s and wriggled his way up from there.

I'm confused as to how that's not what you described. He started off on no one's draft radar. He wasnt even considered a sleeper by the kind of people who geek out over those things then quickly rose.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It was insanity to consider him at #16 a couple weeks ago and insanity to consider at #28 a couple months ago. #9 might be too far, but I am super high on him. I don't know if it's a hotter take than Dick top 5.

I still think most NBA front offices would think its insanity to consider him at #16. As of right now I would bet he goes in the 20s... my only reservation is it only takes one *******. I think the only guy I could see taking him before 16 is Massai.

He's gone up on the internet's draft nerd sites... not sure the real draft boards reflect our thinking all that much.

He would need a big game or two or some other showcase to go higher. I think he should start taking on playground players and posting the defense on youtube. Then he can have a good showing at the combine. It will require a scout that believes in him and will train him in the early mornings and front some of the money to get him here. He will have to control his temper when the #1 prospect goes at him and tries to punk him. Maybe he is not the next Giannis... maybe he is the first real life Bo Cruz.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Hendricks was ranked 59th in his class coming in too.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'm confused as to how that's not what you described. He started off on no one's draft radar. He wasnt even considered a sleeper by the kind of people who geek out over those things then quickly rose.

Taylor has firmly been in the 20s since like the December-ish... to go from the 20s to late lotto in 4 months is pretty natural. Bilal's "rise" has been from second round to maybe interesting 1st round guy to wherever it is now in the matter of a month.

A guy who gets missed in HS and then jumps on the scene and is immediately productive and now very much on the radar is different imo.