What's new
By:

2023 NBA Draft Megathread

HS rankings are also spotty at best. Taylor was already being talked about as a late lotto teens guy by time anyone really brought up Bilal. Good on @KqWIN to bring him up early... but nationally no one is anywhere near where we are talking about him. I bet the first in season draft boards/top 100s Taylor's aggregate ranking would have been in the teens.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I did some google searches for before the season started and this was the only ranking I found Hendricks in.

www.news-gazette.com

College basketball preview | Top 100 freshmen

Breaking down the top 100 freshmen in the country wasn’t simply an exercise in copying the rankings from the Class of 2022. Some first-year players will have a greater opportunity
www.news-gazette.com www.news-gazette.com

Was rated as the 62nd best Freshman. Then after a month he started getting talked about as a potential one and done and by the end of November he was a trendy projected first rounder then by the end of December he started to be projected lottery then in the last couple months he's become a top 10 guy.
Click to expand...

Yeah, these quick rises happen it's just that they usually happen at the beginning of the season....which makes sense. It's the first time a lot of people are seeing them play and their first chance to prove themselves against better competition. It doesn't take that long to go from "guy you've never heard of" to "guy you might want to take in the lottery". Bilal only recently started playing senior team.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Taylor has firmly been in the 20s since like the December-ish... to go from the 20s to late lotto in 4 months is pretty natural. Bilal's "rise" has been from second round to maybe interesting 1st round guy to wherever it is now in the matter of a month.

A guy who gets missed in HS and then jumps on the scene and is immediately productive and now very much on the radar is different imo.
Click to expand...
I mean, there's clearly as overseas lag/American bias for this kind of stuff. I would say they both had pretty similar rises. I did a search for Bilal's name in the same time frame as the one I did for Hendricks (before the college season started) and Bilal had some actual conversation around his name as a draft prospect vs Hendricks who had none.
 
Put it this way... I think Bilal is more likely to go #28 than he is to go #9 as of right now. If he has a big game or some other event.. I will raise where I think he will go.

This is not where I think he should go... just watching drafts in the past and how things work I think our opinion of his stock is likely quite a bit different than around the league.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I mean, there's clearly as overseas lag/American bias for this kind of stuff. I would say they both had pretty similar rises. I did a search for Bilal's name in the same time frame as the one I did for Hendricks (before the college season started) and Bilal had some actual conversation around his name as a draft prospect vs Hendricks who had none.
Click to expand...
That's fine but if you do that for Taylor in early December the result is much different I am guessing. The amount of time he has been on draft boards may anchor him to a higher spot than Bilal (fair or unfair) that is my argument. Its easy to jump from unheard of dude... to late first bubble with a few games. For someone to pass up Dick, Hawkins, Wallace, and maybe Hendricks to pick him is just not something I see happening.
 
KqWIN said:
It took like a month or two max for people to start considering him in the middle of the first or even higher.
Click to expand...
And then it took another month or two of steady production to get him from there to top 10 (maybe). Most national boards still don't have Bilal as a top 30 guy.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
That's fine but if you do that for Taylor in early December the result is much different I am guessing. The amount of time he has been on draft boards may anchor him to a higher spot than Bilal (fair or unfair) that is my argument. Its easy to jump from unheard of dude... to late first bubble with a few games. For someone to pass up Dick, Hawkins, Wallace, and maybe Hendricks to pick him is just not something I see happening.
Click to expand...
Exactly. He has to beat an entrenched consensus that took at least an entire season to situate. I would be gobsmacked if he went too-ten. I would be surprised if he’s not available at #16 but wouldn’t be shocked.

If we’re going to talk about the Giannis comparison, BTW, Giannis was taken #14 in one of the worst drafts of the last 20 years which was almost unprecedented at the time. Giannis got traction like that because he was a 6’ 9” PG and it was one of the worst and weirdest drafts in the last 20 years (and everyone knew it, hell, this is the draft Anthony Bennett went #1).

TLDR; Bilal just doesn’t have that kind of profile, this isn’t the 2013 Darft, and Giannis didn’t go top-ten.

The earliest I see Bilal coming off the board is to a team with multiple 1sts and happy to roll dice. If he gets past the Magic’s 2nd pick then I think he’s there at #16. If he isn’t, another prospect I have more confidence in will be there so it’s all gravy to me.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
That's fine but if you do that for Taylor in early December the result is much different I am guessing. The amount of time he has been on draft boards may anchor him to a higher spot than Bilal (fair or unfair) that is my argument. Its easy to jump from unheard of dude... to late first bubble with a few games. For someone to pass up Dick, Hawkins, Wallace, and maybe Hendricks to pick him is just not something I see happening.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I did the searches for Hendricks throughout his draft hype span. Pre-season nothing, first month of season = people who are the most up to date on things are calling him a first rounder, end of December was people calling him a potential lottery guy, then from there he just stayed steady as guys fell below him and I would say the last month or two have been people talking themselves into him being top 10.

I just think it's so hard to make it kind of comparison to the news/hype cycle a college prospect gets vs an European guy gets. There's always going to be more hesitancy towards overseas prospects and they usually get more buzz when the college season dies down. Hell multiple teams took college dudes over the most bulletproof European prospect of all time (Luka). Bilal's rise is exceptional, but I dont think it's hyper unique or unheard of.

I dont think any of the college guys in our draft range have put together an impressive enough body of work on tape to make them guaranteed at that spot. If Bilal or GG come into a workout and just murder dudes who are 1,2,3,4 years older than them, I wouldnt be shocked to see DA reach. Hell, Jaylen Brown was considered a bit of a reach when Boston took him at 3. Most mocks had him at 7/8. A reach of 4-5 picks might not seem like much, but that is usually considered pretty sizeable that early in the draft.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
And then it took another month or two of steady production to get him from there to top 10 (maybe). Most national boards still don't have Bilal as a top 30 guy.
Click to expand...
Because most national boards really have no idea what they are doing when it comes to international scouting IMO. They are just waiting for someone more legit (like Draft Express/ The Ringer) to push the hype throttle so they can safely get on board.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Because most national boards really have no idea what they are doing when it comes to international scouting IMO. They are just waiting for someone more legit (like Draft Express/ The Ringer) to push the hype throttle so they can safely get on board.
Click to expand...
Vecenie had him in the 30s in his most recent draft board and the ringer have him outside the top 40… no ceilings in the 40s.

It just would be wild for a guy to jump that much at this point in the process.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I dont think any of the college guys in our draft range have put together an impressive enough body of work on tape to make them guaranteed at that spot. If Bilal or GG come into a workout and just murder dudes who are 1,2,3,4 years older than them, I wouldnt be shocked to see DA reach. Hell, Jaylen Brown was considered a bit of a reach when Boston took him at 3. Most mocks had him at 7/8. A reach of 4-5 picks might not seem like much, but that is usually considered pretty sizeable that early in the draft.
Click to expand...
To really hit home on your last point that would be the equivalent of someone like Walker or Whitmore being taken 3rd which seems pretty crazy right now so that’s how it was.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Vecenie had him in the 30s in his most recent draft board and the ringer have him outside the top 40… no ceilings in the 40s.

It just would be wild for a guy to jump that much at this point in the process.
Click to expand...
The No Ceilings guys are super high on him now. Cant remember exactly who (I definitely cant differentiate who is talking on those things, they all sound like big nerds), but the recent pods I was listening to the guys where basically saying they are going to have him lottery soon and they are buying.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Yeah, I did the searches for Hendricks throughout his draft hype span. Pre-season nothing, first month of season = people who are the most up to date on things are calling him a first rounder, end of December was people calling him a potential lottery guy, then from there he just stayed steady as guys fell below him and I would say the last month or two have been people talking themselves into him being top 10.

I just think it's so hard to make it kind of comparison to the news/hype cycle a college prospect gets vs an European guy gets. There's always going to be more hesitancy towards overseas prospects and they usually get more buzz when the college season dies down. Hell multiple teams took college dudes over the most bulletproof European prospect of all time (Luka). Bilal's rise is exceptional, but I dont think it's hyper unique or unheard of.

I dont think any of the college guys in our draft range have put together an impressive enough body of work on tape to make them guaranteed at that spot. If Bilal or GG come into a workout and just murder dudes who are 1,2,3,4 years older than them, I wouldnt be shocked to see DA reach. Hell, Jaylen Brown was considered a bit of a reach when Boston took him at 3. Most mocks had him at 7/8. A reach of 4-5 picks might not seem like much, but that is usually considered pretty sizeable that early in the draft.
Click to expand...
It’s hard to make a comparison but it’s also not super unique. Okay… if you can’t use a college comparison find me another foreign player… Giannis is literally the only one I can think of… and I am not sure where he was at this point in the process.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The No Ceilings guys are super high on him now. Cant remember exactly who (I definitely cant differentiate who is talking on those things, they all sound like big nerds), but the recent pods I was listening to the guys where basically saying they are going to have him lottery soon and they are buying.
Click to expand...
The edge of the lottery is where he will end up eventually...he's still a risk even though there are signs that he could blossom
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
And then it took another month or two of steady production to get him from there to top 10 (maybe). Most national boards still don't have Bilal as a top 30 guy.
Click to expand...

Point is, that initial rise often comes quickly. Taylor went from guy you've never heard of to a guy you would take at 15 in barely any time. Rapid rises happen often they usually just happen in November/December because that's the first time people are seeing them. Sometimes it doesn't even take games to rise. Primo entered the combine as a second round prospect and was drafted lotto.

For Bilal, the first time people are seeing him is now. The "big event" that happened is that it was just the first time people actually considered him. If this massive rise happened in Nov/Dec, which is the time prospects usually first get eyes on them, it would not be crazy. It just so happens to be the case that the first time people have eyes on Bilal is now, and some probably still have not.

He might not have enough runway to get to #9, but it took him like two weeks for someone being talked about at #28 to someone being talked about #16. Let's not act like a guy getting drafted 9th who you thought would be there at 16 is some crazy aberration anyways.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top