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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

In terms of height and length, Bilal is comparable to Jarace Walker. In terms of girth, not so much.

Bilal could possibly end up a Grant Hill-sized or even Scottie Pippen-sized wing.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If you read his follow up tweets it says not to get hung up on exact order but to look at what guys are outside of tiers they traditionally are placed in or something like that. These are helpful simply to see "what guys are we subscribing to group think on that we need to re-evaluate?". I doubt this guy would follow his exact order if he was drafting for a team but it might lead him to take Amari Bailey or someone like that 10 spots before consensus.
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This may be in the thread, i havent looked, but stuff like this is only really relevant at all after MANY years of look backs to confirm its value/worth. Like, "looking back 7 years ago, our model showed X, X, X dudes being much better than their projected or actual draft order. And after 7 years, we were right or wrong, here are the examples......"
 
KqWIN said:
The people who hate this stuff want to read it like a big board list, but if you actually understand how the these things work you would have a measured approach like Jesse and use it as a tool.
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Its a data point... factor it all in and balance it appropriately and then make the best bet you can.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If you read his follow up tweets it says not to get hung up on exact order but to look at what guys are outside of tiers they traditionally are placed in or something like that. These are helpful simply to see "what guys are we subscribing to group think on that we need to re-evaluate?". I doubt this guy would follow his exact order if he was drafting for a team but it might lead him to take Amari Bailey or someone like that 10 spots before consensus.
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Udoka top 5 player in the draft *** model.
 
Bodhi said:
This may be in the thread, i havent looked, but stuff like this is only really relevant at all after MANY years of look backs to confirm its value/worth. Like, "looking back 7 years ago, our model showed X, X, X dudes being much better than their projected or actual draft order. And after 7 years, we were right or wrong, here are the examples......"
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And you'd likely look back and go... meh... but it would point you to a few guys that you may have missed. I'm too overwhelmed with draft content to dive in... but the board is interesting... and it make me think "why is Bailey a mid second round guy?" type of stuff. It may not change much of how I'd draft in the top 20... but in the 20s where you are looking for diamonds some of these might be the guys that pop that make you a genius.

That's how I'd personally look at the info... there is no model that is a panacea... injuries, attitudes, and all sorts of external factors are all likely to change things.
 
stitches said:
Then why not just trade Kessler for Scoot now and have a better prospect to begin with? (if such a trade is available)
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Such a trade isn't available is why not. Jazz would have to add some picks as well. Then the question becomes is scoot better than amen and a couple of firsts and whatever we could get in a kessler trade (that doesn't involve scoot).
 
Coach Ellis said:
I must be in the minority, because I don’t like the Thompson twins at all for the Jazz. I’d much rather see the Jazz trade up for Whitmore or Walker, or stay at 9 and draft Black or Hendricks. I’m still intrigued by Cason Wallace
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Same
 
NUMBERICA said:
I think a reasonable takeaway from the model is that Leonard Miller should be getting more hype.
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I've been on that corner too. He has several markers of the type of guy that could have a big upside. Played pg in hs... got overlooked a bit because of an injury his senior year. Gangly guy last year that kinda got laughed at... all of a sudden he has added strength and now he's not just holding his own against grown *** men... he is moving them and thriving.

He might end up being like a supersized version of Vando... that's still a damn good player... but if he continues to improve at the same trajectory he has the last year or two... oh man. Its funny cuz he's hiding in plain sight. Great measurements, great production, very young....
 
NUMBERICA said:
I’m coming around on Walker because we really need a glue guy and he could pair extremely well with Lauri at the 5.
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I like him... the thing that helps me most is 40% on catch and shoot jumpers... its a low volume so who knows. If he is draymond green type but can shoot off the catch then you are on to something obviously. I doubt the toolsy stuff is quite that good but maybe.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Can you see where he is coming from? Isnt this all just based on some undefined algorithm that we dont have access to? He probably dosent rank the twins because they broke the algorithm.

Draft models are *** to me. Like most analytics based things, they are cool to pick-up any outliers or guys you might have passed over, but they are just tools to grab your eye so you can actually watch and see what the "truth" is.
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oh, i'm not worried about the model itself, when i say i can see where he's coming from, i mean, i get why he has some prospects ranked higher than normal and others ranked lower than normal despite the fact i don't necessarily agree with him on some of them.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I've been on that corner too. He has several markers of the type of guy that could have a big upside. Played pg in hs... got overlooked a bit because of an injury his senior year. Gangly guy last year that kinda got laughed at... all of a sudden he has added strength and now he's not just holding his own against grown *** men... he is moving them and thriving.

He might end up being like a supersized version of Vando... that's still a damn good player... but if he continues to improve at the same trajectory he has the last year or two... oh man. Its funny cuz he's hiding in plain sight. Great measurements, great production, very young....
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IF we are wanting a forward and a guard out of the draft and IF we can get Miller at 16, then we might be better off drafting a guard at 9 and Miller at 16 vs a Forward at 9 and guard at 16.

A lot of IFs (Mostly I don't believe the front office is that worried about getting both a guard and forward)
 
SoberasHotRod said:
IF we are wanting a forward and a guard out of the draft and IF we can get Miller at 16, then we might be better off drafting a guard at 9 and Miller at 16 vs a Forward at 9 and guard at 16.

A lot of IFs (Mostly I don't believe the front office is that worried about getting both a guard and forward)
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it's why i'm on the wallace at 9, miller at 16 bandwagon. you get miller at 16, it's a freaking steal and you have your forward. take wallace or black at 9 - whichever is there or whichever you like better. hell, even if you think jhs is the best guard at 9, take him - you get miller at 16 it's a win.
 
NUMBERICA said:
I’m coming around on Walker because we really need a glue guy and he could pair extremely well with Lauri at the 5.
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Yeah that's what I've been saying with Walker. If you envision Lauri in a 4/5 combo in a 5 out situation, you ideally want someone like Jarace with him. But if you already have Kessler and you're married to the idea of him being a franchise cornerstone, that fit is a little more contentious and you're really counting on Jarace to be able to shoot it.
 
I get the NBA being seemingly lower on Miller.

His shot is hideous. He shot a decent %, but it being decent felt flukey. Everything about his game is bit odd looking and clunky.

You can explain away his numbers as being he was the only relevant big man on the Ignite this year so him getting #'s was basically a given. I dont think NBA teams are really valuing G-League stats, right or wrong, so the aesthetics of his game are going to be judged more than the stats.

I also think him look absolutely awful in last year's combine scrimmages probably left a bad first impression with a lot of teams.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
it's why i'm on the wallace at 9, miller at 16 bandwagon. you get miller at 16, it's a freaking steal and you have your forward. take wallace or black at 9 - whichever is there or whichever you like better. hell, even if you think jhs is the best guard at 9, take him - you get miller at 16 it's a win.
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I'm worried he may not last until 16 but some mocks have him in the 20s right now which feels like crazy town to me.
 
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