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2024-2025 Tank Race

The Midnight said:
In history?

I’ve just told you how the Warriors sat Curry for the rest of the 2012 season to give the rookie Klay playing time - in order to keep the Barnes pick.
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I've just told you how the Jazz pulled off an even more impressive "tank" last year to give the rookie Keyonte playing time - in order to keep the Williams pick.

Why do you keep implying that the Jazz are bad at tanking?
 
idiot said:
I've just told you how the Jazz pulled off an even more impressive "tank" last year to give the rookie Keyonte playing time - in order to keep the Williams pick.

Why do you keep implying that the Jazz are bad at tanking?
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I’m not imply we’re bad at tanking but at this stage with NO historically bad we need to ensure we keep on track.

Good to see Lauri missing tonight’s game for example.

It’s the first time he’s missed consecutive games in a month.
 
idiot said:
These statements seem to be at odds.
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Well we could be better.

Warriors sat Curry for nearly the whole season. They did what it takes to grab our pick.

This game tonight is the first consecutive games Lauri has missed in a month. (Which comes after our win against Houston BTW, correlation?)

I’m hoping this trend continues.
 
The Midnight said:
Well we could be better.

Warriors sat Curry for nearly the whole season. They did what it takes to grab our pick.

This game tonight is the first consecutive games Lauri has missed in a month. (Which comes after our win against Houston BTW, correlation?)

I’m hoping this trend continues.
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Why don't you cite what we did last year, since it was a more impressive tanking result than what the Warriors did?
 
idiot said:
Been there, done that ...

Warriors finished that season 5-21. Last year we finished the season 5-26. They got Harrison Barnes at #7. We got Cody Williams.

Tell me what the stakes are this year, other than just the very imprecise "best odds".
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I think the quality of the draft class = stakes.

Some people only focus on the #1 pick in which case its just about amassing as manny lotto balls as possible to hopefully swing for that guy. I dont think any FO in the league thinks about it like that. Thats just fans getting hyped about "a guy"... but the mathematics dont really work for your favor here so the overall strategy has to be broader.

Imo you need to look at the top 5 to see if its worth it. This years top 5 are all better looking prospects than last years top 1.
 
HermanG said:
I think the quality of the draft class = stakes.

Some people only focus on the #1 pick in which case its just about amassing as manny lotto balls as possible to hopefully swing for that guy. I dont think any FO in the league thinks about it like that. Thats just fans getting hyped about "a guy"... but the mathematics dont really work for your favor here so the overall strategy has to be broader.

Imo you need to look at the top 5 to see if its worth it. This years top 5 are all better looking prospects than last years top 1.
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Man, I would look at it rather differently.

Comparison to last year's (or any other year's) draft quality has nothing to do with what we're talking about here. That comparison to last year only has relevance to the overall decision to tank (which was made long ago, and nobody expects us to go back on now).

The stakes I'm referring to have to do with the difference that a win now and then (at approximately the rate we've been collecting them this season) will make. Those marginal wins (unless we suddenly change our patterns of winning -- which again, no one anticipates) make close to absolutely zero difference for whether we get Flagg, Bailey, Harper, or Edgecombe (assuming these are the top 4). At most they make a difference in regard to whether we get our choice of Kasparas, Fears, or Tre Johnson (or whoever else you think are top 5-7). (I guess this is something of a reward, but hardly anything to get all hot and bothered about, in my mind).

We have people acting as if "the stakes" are that getting a win once in a while is going to prevent us from getting Flagg (or Harper, or Bailey, or Edgecombe). But this is just not true. At this point, it's just the uncontrollable way that the odds play out that will prevent us from getting those top picks. We already have the top odds for those guys. It's very unlikely that we drop in more than very marginal ways from those top odds, even if we don't shut Lauri down for the rest of the year.
 
idiot said:
Man, I would look at it rather differently.

Comparison to last year's (or any other year's) draft quality has nothing to do with what we're talking about here. That comparison to last year only has relevance to the overall decision to tank (which was made long ago, and nobody expects us to go back on now).

The stakes I'm referring to have to do with the difference that a win now and then (at approximately the rate we've been collecting them this season) will make. Those marginal wins (unless we suddenly change our patterns of winning -- which again, no one anticipates) make close to absolutely zero difference for whether we get Flagg, Bailey, Harper, or Edgecombe (assuming these are the top 4). At most they make a difference in regard to whether we get our choice of Kasparas, Fears, or Tre Johnson (or whoever else you think are top 5-7). (I guess this is something of a reward, but hardly anything to get all hot and bothered about, in my mind).

We have people acting as if "the stakes" are that getting a win once in a while is going to prevent us from getting Flagg (or Harper, or Bailey, or Edgecombe). But this is just not true. At this point, it's just the uncontrollable way that the odds play out that will prevent us from getting those top picks. We already have the top odds for those guys. It's very unlikely that we drop in more than very marginal ways from those top odds, even if we don't shut Lauri down for the rest of the year.
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The thing is, "the stakes" of getting a win give are nothing. It is only negative for us to win. Now of course, winning can be a byproduct of young players playing well....but that is different from the vets winning us games. I don't think people really have a problem if our full young group gets wins. If you think you're arguing against someone who doesn't want our young guys to play well and win, I think you're arguing against a made up boogeyman.

No matter how little you think the benefit of losing a game is, it is more than the value of that win which is nothing. You can decide on a personal level how much the value of being 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc. in lotto position is worth to you. What's considered marginal or significant is subjective. But that value is still non-zero where the value of winning on any given night is exactly zero.
 
I'm curious what the tank race looks like next year. Obviously a lot that will happen between now and then but who are the tankers next season.

Jazz - I'm pretty sure.
Wiz - But also they have more vets to worry about if they can't offload Smart and Middleton. Might be more much more competent but still pretty awful
Hornets - What do they do with Ball. If healthy and if they get a difference maker do they break the cycle.
NOP - Who knows. If Zion actually keeps trending the right way they won't be in this group.
Brooklyn - Failed this year but likely more tanky next year.
Chicago - WTF they doing
Toronto - Dont think so with the moves they have made but they might suck on accident.
Philly - If their pick conveys this year I can see that.
Porty - Id guess no... they have made progress and don't have the leadership to try and go backwards.
SA - Nah

There will be a darkhorse maybe due to injury but if its Utah/Brooklyn/Wash/Charlotte... We should be able to jump into the bottom 3 again... if we move John Collins, Collin Sexton, and manage Walker/Lauri again. Really lean into Williams and Taylor on his rehab. It may not be this humongous tank off that people expect.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I'm curious what the tank race looks like next year. Obviously a lot that will happen between now and then but who are the tankers next season.

Jazz - I'm pretty sure.
Wiz - But also they have more vets to worry about if they can't offload Smart and Middleton. Might be more much more competent but still pretty awful
Hornets - What do they do with Ball. If healthy and if they get a difference maker do they break the cycle.
NOP - Who knows. If Zion actually keeps trending the right way they won't be in this group.
Brooklyn - Failed this year but likely more tanky next year.
Chicago - WTF they doing
Toronto - Dont think so with the moves they have made but they might suck on accident.
Philly - If their pick conveys this year I can see that.
Porty - Id guess no... they have made progress and don't have the leadership to try and go backwards.
SA - Nah

There will be a darkhorse maybe due to injury but if its Utah/Brooklyn/Wash/Charlotte... We should be able to jump into the bottom 3 again... if we move John Collins, Collin Sexton, and manage Walker/Lauri again. Really lean into Williams and Taylor on his rehab. It may not be this humongous tank off that people expect.
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My thoughts on these teams:

Jazz - We're gonna tank, existing young players will be improved (hopefully), but I think we will finally trade Lauri. Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson will never ever be traded of course.
Wiz - Yes, they will be improved but still stuck
Hornets - All depends on Ball's health, they are mid with him and historically awful without him. Basically a repeat of this year.
NOP - Don't think so.
Brooklyn - Will have learned their lesson like we did, they will tank hard
Chicago - They will tank, but they will always be too mid to be big tanking contenders
Toronto - More likely to have home court
Philly - See NOP
Porty - Nope
SA - Nope

There will, of course, be surprise tanking contenders like NOP and PHI this year. There is always at least one. I think the Jazz, Hornets, Wizards, and Nets will be the cream of the crop tankers.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I'm curious what the tank race looks like next year. Obviously a lot that will happen between now and then but who are the tankers next season.

Jazz - I'm pretty sure.
Wiz - But also they have more vets to worry about if they can't offload Smart and Middleton. Might be more much more competent but still pretty awful
Hornets - What do they do with Ball. If healthy and if they get a difference maker do they break the cycle.
NOP - Who knows. If Zion actually keeps trending the right way they won't be in this group.
Brooklyn - Failed this year but likely more tanky next year.
Chicago - WTF they doing
Toronto - Dont think so with the moves they have made but they might suck on accident.
Philly - If their pick conveys this year I can see that.
Porty - Id guess no... they have made progress and don't have the leadership to try and go backwards.
SA - Nah

There will be a darkhorse maybe due to injury but if its Utah/Brooklyn/Wash/Charlotte... We should be able to jump into the bottom 3 again... if we move John Collins, Collin Sexton, and manage Walker/Lauri again. Really lean into Williams and Taylor on his rehab. It may not be this humongous tank off that people expect.
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One of the reasons 22-23 was such a fail was 22 wins landed you tied for 2nd/3rd best odds. 4th was 27 wins. It wasn't the epic tank off people thought. This year has been much more "competitive" in the tank race.
 
KqWIN said:
My thoughts on these teams:

Jazz - We're gonna tank, existing young players will be improved (hopefully), but I think we will finally trade Lauri. Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson will never ever be traded of course.
Wiz - Yes, they will be improved but still stuck
Hornets - All depends on Ball's health, they are mid with him and historically awful without him. Basically a repeat of this year.
NOP - Don't think so.
Brooklyn - Will have learned their lesson like we did, they will tank hard
Chicago - They will tank, but they will always be too mid to be big tanking contenders
Toronto - More likely to have home court
Philly - See NOP
Porty - Nope
SA - Nope

There will, of course, be surprise tanking contenders like NOP and PHI this year. There is always at least one. I think the Jazz, Hornets, Wizards, and Nets will be the cream of the crop tankers.
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Which is not like a stacked race... if we make some moves. I think the tanking has much more potential next year than maybe the last 3.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Which is not like a stacked race... if we make some moves. I think the tanking has much more potential next year than maybe the last 3.
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I'll say the same thing as I did last year....the idea of moving forward just seems more and more unrealistic by the day. It's just not a great option to try to jump forward and win more, especially in this stacked West. I am not a big tanking guy and will repeatedly say it's effectiveness is overrated, but it's hard to look at the landscape and convince yourself that adding more talent/winning as much possible is pretty bleak.

Even if it was a heavy tank race, I'd say enter it. There was a window with Lauri that could have been opened had other things happened/gone right....but that been almost entirely shut for me. Flagg is the only remaining hope, and even if Flagg I'm heavy leaning towards tanking anyways.
 
KqWIN said:
I'll say the same thing as I did last year....the idea of moving forward just seems more and more unrealistic by the day. It's just not a great option to try to jump forward and win more, especially in this stacked West. I am not a big tanking guy and will repeatedly say it's effectiveness is overrated, but it's hard to look at the landscape and convince yourself that adding more talent/winning as much possible is pretty bleak.

Even if it was a heavy tank race, I'd say enter it. There was a window with Lauri that could have been opened had other things happened/gone right....but that been almost entirely shut for me. Flagg is the only remaining hope, and even if Flagg I'm heavy leaning towards tanking anyways.
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I will say... I don't think we trade Lauri. On his deal the mechanics will get tough and the return might be pretty mid. Its a tangent on an earlier post you had but I think we are tanking with Lauri... getting Flagg and having him Lauri and Walker might be tough to tank through but it might more just land us in the danger zone where the pick could convey.
 
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