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538 article on "alpha" players

Makes sense. If we had kept Hayward, we would of have two middle betas and are other hope was to have Exum/Mitchell/Hood to pan out to give us our gamma(additionally as always commented on, a healthy Favors) Combine that with elite defense and it's obvious we compete (if the currently constructed warriors didn't exist). No doubt that team could have beat the 2015 warriors imo.
 
Anyone thinks either Hood or Mitchell could be Betas according to this evaluation? Indeed we need 3 betas and 1 gamma if we dont have an alpha to win a championship.
Freaking GSW has 2 alpha, 1 beta, 1 gamma. Ridiculous.
 
Kinda backs up the Utah w/Hayward is better than Boston w/Hayward talk. Also interesting that we've always said we couldn't contend with Hayward as our best player and now Boston is in the same boat.
 
Goes to show just how good that 2012 Heat team was. Damn. According to these metrics, Lebron and DWade graded out higher than any other duo to win championships over the last two decades.
 
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The Silent Cipher will be doing to Boston what AK did to the 2008 Jazz. The highest paid player on the team, who the fans irrationally love, but who isn't the alpha dog. Haywood will cry too.
 
What's overlooked in this story of Boston signing Hayward is that despite them ostensibly acquiring him for free, they actually had to give up a fair bit in order to be able to do it. I was looking at Win Shares of all the players Boston had to get rid of. Amir Johnson turned out to be particularly valuable, and between him, Olynyk and Bradley, they gave up about 12 WS. Hayward's total last year was 10. They gave up two starters and a decent back up centre. They did also get Morris, but the actual improvement is probably not that large.
 
mellow said:
The Silent Cipher will be doing to Boston what AK did to the 2008 Jazz. The highest paid player on the team, who the fans irrationally love, but who isn't the alpha dog. Haywood will cry too.
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All the way to the bank. You think ghicken ****wood really cares after gettin $125 million?
 
Mongoose said:
Strayward has never been all NBA.


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That's probably why the powers that be got him the celtics. Politics go the other way and he resigns in small market salt lake
 
What I dont get about this projection about Gobert is that he was 5.8 last season why would his projection be 3.6 for next season? I would guess it would go up with a pass first PG plus the fact that he got better every month last season. He grew into a star last year. I expect him to be better than last season and at least as good as he was at the end of last season. I think he will be in that Alpha grouping.
 
Ellis269 said:
Goes to show just how good that 2012 Heat team was. Damn. According to these metrics, Lebron and DWade graded out higher than any other duo to win championships over the last two decades.
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Nah, Lebron said it wasnt a super team so it wasnt right?
 
Gobert just posted the 159th best season of any player in NBA history according to win shares at 14.29. I bet he gets close to a top 100 performance next season.

Here is the company he is around:
151. Dwight Howard 14.39 2010-11
152. Dwyane Wade 14.39 2005-06
153. Elgin Baylor* 14.39 1962-63
154. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*14.38 1978-79
155. George Mikan* 14.38 1951-52
156. Walt Bellamy* 14.36 1963-64
157. Hakeem Olajuwon*14.33 1993-94
158. LeBron James 14.30 2004-05
159. Rudy Gobert 14.29 2016-17
160. Kevin Love 14.29 2013-14
161. Bob Pettit* 14.28 1962-63
162. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*14.26 1980-81
163. Tiny Archibald* 14.24 1972-73
164. Horace Grant 14.15 1991-92
165. Moses Malone* 14.09 1978-79
166. John Stockton* 14.08 1987-88
167. Russell Westbrook14.05 2015-16
168. John Stockton* 14.04 1990-91
169. Jerry West* 14.03 1963-64
170. Shaquille O'Neal*14.03 1994-95
171. Anthony Davis 14.03 2014-15
 
sepanol said:
Anyone thinks either Hood or Mitchell could be Betas according to this evaluation? Indeed we need 3 betas and 1 gamma if we dont have an alpha to win a championship.
Freaking GSW has 2 alpha, 1 beta, 1 gamma. Ridiculous.
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Actually, it's fair to say that one only needs two betas and one gamma to compete for a title. Throw in some good luck with injuries and solid bench depth, and you've got a realistic shot. Of course, everything is skewed right now because of what you mention: freaking GSW.
 
Ron Mexico said:
What I dont get about this projection about Gobert is that he was 5.8 last season why would his projection be 3.6 for next season? I would guess it would go up with a pass first PG plus the fact that he got better every month last season. He grew into a star last year. I expect him to be better than last season and at least as good as he was at the end of last season. I think he will be in that Alpha grouping.
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Where did you get the 5.8 stat? I'd love to see how their CPM stat ended up last season.

My guess for your question is that projections would naturally trend toward the center of a range of projected value. So I'd guess that all projections would end up "flatter" than the actual results.

But I'm an English major, so I wouldn't listen to anything I have to say about advanced statistics.
 
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