What's new

Anyone invested in the market

I'm going through a month long internal debate about sitting on the sidelines for a while. I almost think it's finally time. The triangle has been setting up since January, wage pressure is finally here, the world for the most part is in a slump, and we haven't had a correction forever.

I agree. We're gonna get a big hit when the Reminbi gets into the inner circle as a reserve currency. Dollar-denominated assets will take a hit, especially those commodity futures or other highly-leveraged assets. The announcement will come about October 17, and even the Treasury department "investments" in American stocks won't smooth that over.

Real estate in this country has been effectively given some price-support from foreign investment over the past few years, and that is likely to drop off some. In the ultimate analysis, the "value" of a home is only ever going to be about what the working wage-slave can afford on his earnings. We've been for a long time under pressure from that decline in earnings. The high-end housing, the $million+ market, will face a comparable pressure this time around. The cost of medical care has actually drastically increased under Obamacare for working Americans, who now often face paying $6,000 in up-front deductibles before "insurance" even begins to pay anything. Unless you have a major health crisis, you're a loser on this idea. The Supreme Court called it a "tax". Imagine that, now we tax people up front before giving them health care. Other taxes must also be raised. Long-term, that will mean more deductions on your take-home. The Obama "amnesty" is also a tax on working Americans, a huge re-distribution of income that reduces our ability to pay for housing. All told, we're in for another huge decline in our real estate values.

And besides all that, we're vulnerable to an EMT nuke detonated twenty miles up in space. . . . . satellite orbit. . . . where we will not even see a launch, and it might already be up there.

Probably a good time to get unhooked from our internet addictions and learn to think for ourselves, grow tomatos in our front yards, and bottle some peaches.
 
Globalization is catching up to investors.

We often talk about protecting and expanding the middle class but I think we need to think about it a little differently. We need to protect and expand the consumer base. The difference is subtle but important. First when we speak about the middle class we often think nationally.(The American Middle Class) On the other hand, when we talk about the consumer base we are speaking of all purchasers regardless of their locale. Second when we talk about the middle class we often focus on quality of life and almost entirely neglect its function in the economy. Third the term middle class doesn't cover the financial health of institutions like cities that are also important consumers.
Right now globally there is an imbalance of capital to consumers. Profit is undermining its own consumer base and consumers, of all different kinds, are left financing way too much of their purchases.
 
Oil is still in a rout. About 20% under-performance since we last talked about this. If we get another 20% off the high its serious time to make a 10 year investment. Patience, patience.

China needs to come out of recession and start leading world growth again. If they do and Europe finally stops being Europe then watch out. This could set up another great bull run.
 
Yeah it might not be a bad long term investment. How would you do it? Oil ETF's? Futures? Stocks in big companies?
 
Yeah it might not be a bad long term investment. How would you do it? Oil ETF's? Futures? Stocks in big companies?

I wouldn't ever touch futures unless the price goes crazy low overshooting like it did in 2008 after sledgehammering a faltering world economy. This is more fundamental. The market is finally catching up to itself. Back then it was a bit different as you could tell when hedge funds started paying to store crude in tankers offshore. This time it's fundamental both politically and on the production and consumption fronts. Futures are for companies hedging, fools with deep pockets, or someone looking to hit a lottery. There's no lottery any time soon with this one.


------

IEO or something similar but more broad if it pops up.

The oil sector is way too complex for small time investors to mess around with. If you're not Boone Pickens or Carl Icahn you're best staying away from individual names. If you are Boone Pickens, Icahn, or even Warren Buffett you're best staying away from individual names.


---



COP and XOM are almost always safe bets if you want to go the stock picking rout. You'll never be able to know enough about either to make an informed decision but they are power players so it's hard to go so wrong that you lose your ***. I would want a premium to the exploration companies' growth however, and XOM has been a grasping, dying dinosaur for a decade. COP might offer that up. I don't know what's up with it but buying at 6.5% dividend sounds nearly ridiculous in this interest rate and dividend environment. They aren't going bankrupt and will use there balance sheet to buy some external growth. 70% underperformance over the last 10 and 5 years, and 40% the last year. COP and XOM are slowly transitioning into "safe" utility-like stocks and will sooner or later grant a retirement portfolio premium. Find me a safer 6.5% dividend that can actually grow it at a reasonable rate.
 
I wouldn't ever touch futures unless the price goes crazy low overshooting like it did in 2008 after sledgehammering a faltering world economy. This is more fundamental. The market is finally catching up to itself. Back then it was a bit different as you could tell when hedge funds started paying to store crude in tankers offshore. This time it's fundamental both politically and on the production and consumption fronts. Futures are for companies hedging, fools with deep pockets, or someone looking to hit a lottery. There's no lottery any time soon with this one.


------

IEO or something similar but more broad if it pops up.

The oil sector is way too complex for small time investors to mess around with. If you're not Boone Pickens or Carl Icahn you're best staying away from individual names. If you are Boone Pickens, Icahn, or even Warren Buffett you're best staying away from individual names.


---



COP and XOM are almost always safe bets if you want to go the stock picking rout. You'll never be able to know enough about either to make an informed decision but they are power players so it's hard to go so wrong that you lose your ***. I would want a premium to the exploration companies' growth however, and XOM has been a grasping, dying dinosaur for a decade. COP might offer that up. I don't know what's up with it but buying at 6.5% dividend sounds nearly ridiculous in this interest rate and dividend environment. They aren't going bankrupt and will use there balance sheet to buy some external growth. 70% underperformance over the last 10 and 5 years, and 40% the last year. COP and XOM are slowly transitioning into "safe" utility-like stocks and will sooner or later grant a retirement portfolio premium. Find me a safer 6.5% dividend that can actually grow it at a reasonable rate.

Interesting, thanks for the advice. I have a friend who works at Conoco and he told me they're having issues due to their transition from a supermajor to an independent oil and gas company. The last few months or so, they've had massive layoffs not only to align themselves with the current price environment but also to remove the vestiges of their days as a major. At $100 oil, they didn't have a lot of motivation to move quickly on that.

I'll keep an eye on Exxon. They're a big boy and I'm sure they're a great investment. No one can control prices but they can control how their business is run. Exxon is the Hyperion of the energy industry and it's good advice you gave me because I am sure they will bounce back.
 
I'm never invested in the market. Makes no sense for me.
My major investors, though, have been going heavier in real estate predicting a major mkt crash (this began around May 15th of this year).

They are telling me they need a place to hide for about 6-9mos and then they'll jump back in. I will never, ever, go market for my returns (cuz I gotz skillz), but it's wild that every up and down has been "predicted" by the same group of about 12 guys, over a decade of getting it right.
 
I'm never invested in the market. Makes no sense for me.
My major investors, though, have been going heavier in real estate predicting a major mkt crash (this began around May 15th of this year).

They are telling me they need a place to hide for about 6-9mos and then they'll jump back in. I will never, ever, go market for my returns (cuz I gotz skillz), but it's wild that every up and down has been "predicted" by the same group of about 12 guys, over a decade of getting it right.

What if the Dow went sub 10,000 again...... Would you buy?
 
Interesting, thanks for the advice. I have a friend who works at Conoco and he told me they're having issues due to their transition from a supermajor to an independent oil and gas company. The last few months or so, they've had massive layoffs not only to align themselves with the current price environment but also to remove the vestiges of their days as a major. At $100 oil, they didn't have a lot of motivation to move quickly on that.

I'll keep an eye on Exxon. They're a big boy and I'm sure they're a great investment. No one can control prices but they can control how their business is run. Exxon is the Hyperion of the energy industry and it's good advice you gave me because I am sure they will bounce back.

Warren Buffett's thesis on COP. Don't touch XOM unless you have a better reason than my div play on COP. Much, much better. It's weak but in this climate of no returns to be had it will do. There's a reason XOM trades at a 4% yield to COP's 6.5. There is deep money in XOM. DEEP.


I'm never invested in the market. Makes no sense for me.
My major investors, though, have been going heavier in real estate predicting a major mkt crash (this began around May 15th of this year).

They are telling me they need a place to hide for about 6-9mos and then they'll jump back in. I will never, ever, go market for my returns (cuz I gotz skillz), but it's wild that every up and down has been "predicted" by the same group of about 12 guys, over a decade of getting it right.

****in A bro, ****in A (cue the dude YB85). PM about your group of 12. My track record speaks for itself.


What if the Dow went sub 10,000 again...... Would you buy?

Duh. Easiest call of a lifetime. I'll retire off of it if that that happens.
 
Warren Buffett's thesis on COP. Don't touch XOM unless you have a better reason than my div play on COP. Much, much better. It's weak but in this climate of no returns to be had it will do. There's a reason XOM trades at a 4% yield to COP's 6.5. There is deep money in XOM. DEEP.




****in A bro, ****in A (cue the dude YB85). PM about your group of 12. My track record speaks for itself.




Duh. Easiest call of a lifetime. I'll retire off of it if that that happens.

U a troll ... Or legit diseased?
 
Back
Top