Better starting 5 poll.

[mrob]

I'm a huge Millsap fan as well, but I don't see him as a starter in this group. It's painful to say it because he contribution to the team the last few years has been huge. But ... we simply can't have Favors coming off the bench anymore. It's time for him to be given the minutes to become the star that we all hope he can be.

That being said, Millsap is a beast and could anchor our second team if he's willing to accept it. I know he wants to start and I would love for him to be able to, but it just doesn't fit on this team.

 

[Ellipse]

The entire Millsap vs Favors argument reminds me of the Green vs Stockton controversy.

Back then, Green was our all-star point guard when Stockton was drafted. In his rookie year, Stockton was Green's backup. Stockton started for about half of the next season, but Green was clearly unhappy with that so Layden returned Stockton to the bench during his third year. But by Stockton's fourth year, it was clear the team was better with him starting, which made for a very unhappy Green. Ricky left the team the next year.

It was sad actually, because the Jazz struggled for years and years trying to find a capable backup to Stockton, when Green could have filled that role perfectly until he retired from the NBA six years later.

 

[theNBAnerd]

Opponent PPP disagrees with your Favors isn't a better defender argument. Favors 105.3 Points per 100 possessions. Millsap 106.2 Points per 100 possessions.

So not all so called empirical and objective data points to paul. Just the ones you chose to use for your argument. Favors is absolutely a better defender and him being longer and more athletic is a big reason why. He was also far superior against PNR and helping. Defense is hard to prove with stats but my eyes tell me that Favors was better defensively.

I think Corbin screwed up last season not playing Favors 30+ MPG and that they should have been at the expense of both Millsap and Jefferson. I think he was absolutely better for the team last year than Millsap. Your # show nothing more than that Millsap was slightly better offensively. They do nothing to show the other end of the floor.

0.009 points per possession is hardly a difference you want to hang your hat on here, especially since that stat doesn't even remotely take into account a bevy of other variables. like the fact that millsap plays virtually all his minutes next to a matador defender and has to guard the best western conference PFs (dirk, pau, aldridge, duncan, etc.) while favors plays with a defense-focused lineup against second-string talent from other teams.

but that's not even my point, and my point rests more on game film than on stats. favors has a lot more raw talent than paul, but he's not always in the right place in the team defensive scheme. paul almost always is. THAT's what i'm talking about.

 

[theNBAnerd]

The entire Millsap vs Favors argument reminds me of the Green vs Stockton controversy.

Back then, Green was our all-star point guard when Stockton was drafted. In his rookie year, Stockton was Green's backup. Stockton started for about half of the next season, but Green was clearly unhappy with that so Layden returned Stockton to the bench during his third year. But by Stockton's fourth year, it was clear the team was better with him starting, which made for a very unhappy Green. Ricky left the team the next year.

It was sad actually, because the Jazz struggled for years and years trying to find a capable backup to Stockton, when Green could have filled that role perfectly until he retired from the NBA six years later.

look, i'm not even approaching this as a "millsap vs. favors argument" and the solution i have advocated all along is millsap AND favors. i think they're the best tandem for us right now and i believe they still will be in 3 years. unload al, keep working on kanter... but paul is our best player right now and favors is our best player 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now. their strengths complement each other so they can and should share the floor.

 

[jazzyapma]

A good article... If it hasn't been posted already. I'm too lazy to search for it.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article...ow-2-whos-going-to-start-for-Jazz.html?pg=all

 

[Stoked]

I went Mo Williams, Hayward, Marvin Willaims, Millsap and Favors.

 

[nightmare3983]

A good article... If it hasn't been posted already. I'm too lazy to search for it.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article...ow-2-whos-going-to-start-for-Jazz.html?pg=all

That's so page 4 of this thread.

 

[TheSilencer1313]

A good article... If it hasn't been posted already. I'm too lazy to search for it.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article...ow-2-whos-going-to-start-for-Jazz.html?pg=all

Damn good article though.

 

[theNBAnerd]

I went Mo Williams, Hayward, Marvin Willaims, Millsap and Favors.

this.

unfortunately, it's a pipe dream. if al's on the roster, he's starting, much to my chagrin.

 

[billyshelby]

look, i'm not even approaching this as a "millsap vs. favors argument" and the solution i have advocated all along is millsap AND favors. i think they're the best tandem for us right now and i believe they still will be in 3 years. unload al, keep working on kanter... but paul is our best player right now and favors is our best player 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now. their strengths complement each other so they can and should share the floor.

Serious question: Do you think Paul's numbers as a starter would be the same in a frontcourt with Favors? And what effect, if any, would starting Sap and Favors have on the offense?

My fear is that the offense, as we presently run it, wouldn't work well. You can't drop the ball to either Favors or Sap in the low post, we'd see tight man coverage on the perimeter, and a lot of teams would rotate their 5's to cover Paul whenever possible, essentially daring Favors to beat them.

I think Sap and Favors could work as a tandem, but we'd have to change our offense fairly drastically (mostly with more PnR).

 

[gregbroncs]

Serious question: Do you think Paul's numbers as a starter would be the same in a frontcourt with Favors? And what effect, if any, would starting Sap and Favors have on the offense?

My fear is that the offense, as we presently run it, wouldn't work well. You can't drop the ball to either Favors or Sap in the low post, we'd see tight man coverage on the perimeter, and a lot of teams would rotate their 5's to cover Paul whenever possible, essentially daring Favors to beat them.

I think Sap and Favors could work as a tandem, but we'd have to change our offense fairly drastically (mostly with more PnR).

This is a main reason I went with Al and Favors. Millsap does not draw a double team. Al does, leaving Favors available to get offensive rebounds and back side cuts to the basket. I do want to see the offense run through Favors more and playing him with Millsap makes that a possibility though.

 

[gregbroncs]

being in the minority doesn't make me wrong.

favors was not better than millsap. favors made good progress and looked very ready to take the next step... but c'mon, go look at any type of objective measurement before you make that comment, because millsap played like a fringe all-star all year. favors, at his april best, averaged 9.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and .9 assists in 25 minutes. even if we gross up his stats to the 32 minutes that paul averaged you'd get 12.5, 10.7 and 1.1. significantly less than paul except in rebounds. the comparison is even more stark if we don't cherry-pick favors' best month and compare it against paul's season-long number.

don't get me wrong, favors is our best chance at a future star. but there's no measure by which he was better than paul in 2011-12.

and al?? al is a better low post scorer than millsap. in just about every other area

So lets go back to your original argument. You say Favors is not the best player because his objective measurements show that he is not. Well it's sort of a fact that if we use this argument to show that Favors is not better than Millsap then your argument should have been that Jefferson is the best player on our team. Jefferson scores more, rebounds more, assists virtually the same blocks tons more. In fact the only official stat Millsap beats Jefferson by any margin is steals and Jefferson beats Millsap by an equal amount in Blocks.

Since Jefferson is better than Millsap by your argument and Favors is a much better compliment to Jefferson than Millsap it stands to reason that Favors deserves the start more than Millsap.


I don't think Jefferson is the best player mind you. I just took your advice and looked at objective measureables. I still maintain Favors is the best overall player on our roster. But I don't see how you can argue it's Millsap when it goes against your original argument in this thread.

 

[Joe Bagadonuts]

So lets go back to your original argument. You say Favors is not the best player because his objective measurements show that he is not. Well it's sort of a fact that if we use this argument to show that Favors is not better than Millsap then your argument should have been that Jefferson is the best player on our team. Jefferson scores more, rebounds more, assists virtually the same blocks tons more. In fact the only official stat Millsap beats Jefferson by any margin is steals and Jefferson beats Millsap by an equal amount in Blocks.

Since Jefferson is better than Millsap by your argument and Favors is a much better compliment to Jefferson than Millsap it stands to reason that Favors deserves the start more than Millsap.


I don't think Jefferson is the best player mind you. I just took your advice and looked at objective measureables. I still maintain Favors is the best overall player on our roster. But I don't see how you can argue it's Millsap when it goes against your original argument in this thread.

 

[theNBAnerd]

So lets go back to your original argument. You say Favors is not the best player because his objective measurements show that he is not. Well it's sort of a fact that if we use this argument to show that Favors is not better than Millsap then your argument should have been that Jefferson is the best player on our team. Jefferson scores more, rebounds more, assists virtually the same blocks tons more. In fact the only official stat Millsap beats Jefferson by any margin is steals and Jefferson beats Millsap by an equal amount in Blocks.

Since Jefferson is better than Millsap by your argument and Favors is a much better compliment to Jefferson than Millsap it stands to reason that Favors deserves the start more than Millsap.


I don't think Jefferson is the best player mind you. I just took your advice and looked at objective measureables. I still maintain Favors is the best overall player on our roster. But I don't see how you can argue it's Millsap when it goes against your original argument in this thread.

i'll simply say that i recognize the conundrum behind any statistical evaluation of al jefferson... and i didn't go there on purpose.

 

[theNBAnerd]

Serious question: Do you think Paul's numbers as a starter would be the same in a frontcourt with Favors? And what effect, if any, would starting Sap and Favors have on the offense?

My fear is that the offense, as we presently run it, wouldn't work well. You can't drop the ball to either Favors or Sap in the low post, we'd see tight man coverage on the perimeter, and a lot of teams would rotate their 5's to cover Paul whenever possible, essentially daring Favors to beat them.

I think Sap and Favors could work as a tandem, but we'd have to change our offense fairly drastically (mostly with more PnR).

well first of all i disagree with the premise that we have to run the offense that way. the offensive philosophy of "dump the ball into the low post and then watch that one guy do all the work" is not the most effective one. when you have two skilled bigs who can score down low but also have different strengths out to 15 feet (or beyond, in millsap's case), you can run some high-post/low-post motion stuff that gives you a ton of possibilities for those two guys and everyone else playing off them. it's the kind of system we ran when booz and memo were starters, but we've gone away from it the last two seasons so we can watch al jefferson use the same up-and-under move 20 times per game.

 

[gregbroncs]

i'll simply say that i recognize the conundrum behind any statistical evaluation of al jefferson... and i didn't go there on purpose.

So you are using the same basic argument for Millsap instead of Jefferson that I did for Favors over Millsap? How convienient for you.

 

[theNBAnerd]

So you are using the same basic argument for Millsap instead of Jefferson that I did for Favors over Millsap? How convienient for you.

yeah, i was hoping nobody would notice...

except, here's the thing... i don't believe what i believe BECAUSE of stats. i believe that millsap is our best player, favors is a raw-but-improving difference maker and jefferson doesn't make us better because of what i've seen. al's numbers look nice, but i've seen so many times where we've hitched our cart to that particular horse and gotten nowhere. paul's numbers are just a hair off of al's numbers, but we actually have anecdotal evidence to back up the assertion that when the jazz rely on millsap, they're better for it. favors has only shown that team-on-his-back beastiness a time or two, but i think we all hope we start to see it more often.

so yeah, i'm kind of guilty of the crime of using the stats that make my point and then ignoring those same stats when they don't make my point. i'll admit it. but that's largely because al's game is catered to stat-stuffing and his weaknesses are all things that don't show up in numerical analysis, but that every NBA scout agrees with.

 

[gregbroncs]

yeah, i was hoping nobody would notice...

except, here's the thing... i don't believe what i believe BECAUSE of stats. i believe that millsap is our best player, favors is a raw-but-improving difference maker and jefferson doesn't make us better because of what i've seen. al's numbers look nice, but i've seen so many times where we've hitched our cart to that particular horse and gotten nowhere. paul's numbers are just a hair off of al's numbers, but we actually have anecdotal evidence to back up the assertion that when the jazz rely on millsap, they're better for it. favors has only shown that team-on-his-back beastiness a time or two, but i think we all hope we start to see it more often.

so yeah, i'm kind of guilty of the crime of using the stats that make my point and then ignoring those same stats when they don't make my point. i'll admit it. but that's largely because al's game is catered to stat-stuffing and his weaknesses are all things that don't show up in numerical analysis, but that every NBA scout agrees with.

Lets just say I totally disagree with you. I believe Al to be every bit as good as Millsap if not better. I also believe that Favors is now and was last year more valuable to the Jazz because of the defensive intangibles and his ability to change the game on the defensive end. Millsap showed glipses of being able to carry the team but then completely dissappears for long stretches of games and the season as a whole, Jefferson did not do this to nearly Millsap's degree. Millsap is completely dominated on the defensive end by bigger PF's and in the western conference that is a problem.

I believe than Favors is the perfect compliment to Al on both ends of the floor. Favors is more of a PF than C and that makes Millsap the odd man out. I also think that if the Jazz expect to run the offense through Millsap there are going to be real problems scoring consistently. I also believe Millsap is better suited to being our main offensive weapon coming off of the bench and think he had his best years when his minutes were a little more limited and his role was as the PF off of the bench.

After what I saw in summer league I have no faith in Kanter being ready this season. So moving Jefferson seems like something that will have to wait.

 

[theNBAnerd]

well we agree on kanter not being ready for much more of a role than what he had last year. other than that, sounds like we're on opposite ends of the spectrum on our valuation of millsap and al. not that it will convince you (and not that it has to, we're allowed to disagree), but there is plenty of stuff out there from pundits and scouts about how the jazz could be good if it weren't for al's defense, or al's inefficient use of possessions, or al's this, or al's that.

as far as millsap "completely being dominated by WC power forwards" i disagree. i think PF is a strong position in this conference, so if you look at it in a vacuum, it will look like paul is getting his torch lit, but go compare him with others and you'll see that he holds his own against the dirk's, pau's, alridge's, etc. of the NBA. he's a much more complete player than al offensively and he actually tries on defense.

but most importantly, i'm referring to the dozen or so close games where we went to al down the stretch and lost, compared to the handful of close games where instead we went to paul and won the game. even that difference doesn't show up in stats because al has padded his stats enough times in "clutch" time vs. the wizards or bobcats. but i have a long list of anecdotal evidence where we went the al route with our late-game play calling and lost winnable games. 0-for-5 in the 4th quarter against indiana, and the jazz cough up a 95-92 lead to lose by 5. 0-for-4 in the 4th quarter against NY and the jazz lose to a team without any of its stars, and with tyson chandler in foul trouble. 0-for-4 against dallas in a game where paul (11 & 4 in the 4th) makes it a one possession game, but on the ensuing possession al turns the ball over. 1-for-6 in the overtime loss to LA, including a botched layup that would have been the go-ahead bucket (paul had 12 & 3 in the 4th and OT).

 

[One Brow]

even that difference doesn't show up in stats because al has padded his stats enough times in "clutch" time vs. the wizards or bobcats.

At 82games:

Clutch Statistics: 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points

Why doesn't this time count against the Wizards or the Bobcats?

but i have a long list of anecdotal evidence

Confirmation bias.