Donovan Mitchell unlikely to ask for trade per ESPN’s Brian Windhorst

[fishonjazz]

I mean…we just did this with Gobert and you said that wasn’t fair….but regardless, Mitchell is a lot better and a lot more valuable.

To use the other side of this argument…this MIA deal is like getting 80 cents on the dollar. Those are HH’s words not mine. My question is….why are we taking 80%? Are we so scared that we’re going to get 75% that we lock ourselves into 80%? That’s not how I would do things. I would ask for 120%, and if you get to close to 100% even value that’s when we start thinking about taking the deal. You aim to win deals, not try to mitigate downside and settle for 80%.

I agree with you but you are missing some of the context from HH perspective. He was saying we only get 80% but get another 20% by doing the trade early and making our pick next year better and having a clear plan and direction and not wasting assets to get guys to help compete now. Going full tank gains you 20%. 80 + 20 = 100.

At least thats how I saw it.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I mean…we just did this with Gobert and you said that wasn’t fair….but regardless, Mitchell is a lot better and a lot more valuable.

To use the other side of this argument…this MIA deal is like getting 80 cents on the dollar. Those are HH’s words not mine. My question is….why are we taking 80%? Are we so scared that we’re going to get 75% that we lock ourselves into 80%? That’s not how I would do things. I would ask for 120%, and if you get to close to 100% even value that’s when we start thinking about taking the deal. You aim to win deals, not try to mitigate downside and settle for 80%.

I don’t think it’s 80%. I think a Knicks deal with all of their picks plus Barrett is 125% but I also don’t think that’s on the table.

 

[fishonjazz]

Would you say Dejounte plus an unprotected first plus two 1st round pick swaps is fair?

Ya that seems about right to me. Maybe the first is top 10 protected. Actually, nevermind about the top 10 protection. I think your trade is fair.

 

[KqWIN]

I just have to say that imo Quickley will be a better overall player than Herro in 3 years.

Just want it on the record……..your Honor.

It's honestly not that crazy. Quickley is an insane +/- god....and no it's not just because of Randle. His on court rating alone is crazy good, and his on court rating with Randle is also good. Being positive with Randle on the court is difficult, and Quickley is +7.6 with Randle on the court. He also has one more year left on his rookie deal, and if you're looking for untapped potential I would look at the guy who Thibs has been coaching instead of the guy who has been in the Heat organization. Eye for eye, Herro is the better prospect. But if you're talking Quickley+Toppin, I'm taking those two over Herro for sure,

 

[KqWIN]

I agree with you but you are missing some of the context from HH perspective. He was saying we only get 80% but get another 20% by doing the trade early and making our pick next year better and having a clear plan and direction and not wasting assets to get guys to help compete now. Going full tank gains you 20%. 80 + 20 = 100.

At least thats how I saw it.

He did, but only 20% because we make bad moves/decisions. I say don't take 80% and don't make bad decisions. I'm not happy with a deal because it may or may not prevent us from making other bad decisions.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Even if we go based off of the Gobert deal which is better:

23/25/27 unprotected 1sts
29 top-5 protected 1st
26 pick swap 1st

vs

23/27/29 unprotected 1sts
24/26/28 pick swap 1sts

Basically the same deal except you get 24/28 pick swaps instead of 25 unprotected 1st and the 29 is unprotected vs top-5 protected.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

He did, but only 20% because we make bad moves/decisions. I say don't take 80% and don't make bad decisions. I'm not happy with a deal because it may or may not prevent us from making other bad decisions.

Some of that 20% is bad decisions related... or win now decisions (which is easy to say but will be tough to do). The other big part of that is improvement of our pick in 2023. Donovan will help us win more and push us to the middle. A top 4 pick next year is likely more valuable than Donovan in a trade. With Donovan and garbage we end up maybe around 9/10 ish.

They won't do that though... sell off all the vets and tell Don "tough ******* play good so we can trade you". They will keep some of the good players around or make a few moves to round out the roster or trade Bogey/Mike for more win-now oriented moves. Instead of using TPEs to collect unwanted contracts maybe they try and add some fringe additions that fill in rotation spots. Instead of rolling with Udoka and Kessler to get them development time they go find a plumlee.

Its a give and take... saying we can split the baby and still get the best of both worlds is fun but not practical. We won't simultaneously dismantle the roster and keep Donovan.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don’t think it’s 80%. I think a Knicks deal with all of their picks plus Barrett is 125% but I also don’t think that’s on the table.

I think its 80/90% and maybe you can get to 125% BUT if you go from a 12-14th pick to a top 4 pick you have just added like 100% of value.

Selling off the other parts you can easily grab another 3-4 firsts... and I just don't believe we do that if we have Donovan... maybe Ainge does though.. not sure that helps Donovan's value in any way so you are waiting around for a team to get desperate... which happens sometimes.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

In addition to injury... I have some concern because the guy does so much damage as pick and roll ball handler... and currently he has no good pick and roll partner... and he just lost one of the best in the league. There is some exposure there... his spot up shooting could improve... but if we sell off the other good parts who will set him up for those?

 

[Elizah Huge]

I think its 80/90% and maybe you can get to 125% BUT if you go from a 12-14th pick to a top 4 pick you have just added like 100% of value.

Selling off the other parts you can easily grab another 3-4 firsts... and I just don't believe we do that if we have Donovan... maybe Ainge does though.. not sure that helps Donovan's value in any way so you are waiting around for a team to get desperate... which happens sometimes.

Completely with you. Hell we could end up with 5/6 1sts for our other guys.

 

[LoPo]

The "best" thing that could happen to us this year that nobody wants to hear.... Donovan and Rudy both get hurt.

Likely means we go full on San Antonio style tank mode, and Minnesota could run into some really bad run of fortune too.

We would trade Beverley, Bojan, Conley and others before the deadline and go into the draft with Don, max cap space, our top 5 pick, and maybe a lottery pick out of Minnesota.

When I say hurt, I mean miss a big part of the season but nothing career threatening. I don't even wish that on enemies.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Completely with you. Hell we could end up with 5/6 1sts for our other guys.

I just think its convenient to say "we can keep Donovan and we don't lose anything". He will win you games so the pick loses value. You will still at least think of him a little as you configure the roster... so you will sacrifice some future value to be a little better now. And all for what? A pause button. You have no guarantee the offers get better and you open yourself to some catastrophic risks that might be very unlikely but they are real.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There is also a ceiling on how much draft capital a team can give you. Teams can give you their whole draft and the Knicks have some extra picks... but those picks are protected and likely to either not convey or be late firsts. We gonna put a hold on the rebuild to get a few of those? We can get those anyway.

 

[Elizah Huge]

There is also a ceiling on how much draft capital a team can give you. Teams can give you their whole draft and the Knicks have some extra picks... but those picks are protected and likely to either not convey or be late firsts. We gonna put a hold on the rebuild to get a few of those? We can get those anyway.

Most Knicks fans said they’d rather give Barrett a max extension than deal Barrett and their picks for Mitchell. I’d likely say at least a couple guys in the front office might think that way too.

 

[NUMBERICA]

In addition to injury... I have some concern because the guy does so much damage as pick and roll ball handler... and currently he has no good pick and roll partner... and he just lost one of the best in the league. There is some exposure there... his spot up shooting could improve... but if we sell off the other good parts who will set him up for those?

I think this is insanely prescient.

 

[KqWIN]

Some of that 20% is bad decisions related... or win now decisions (which is easy to say but will be tough to do). The other big part of that is improvement of our pick in 2023. Donovan will help us win more and push us to the middle. A top 4 pick next year is likely more valuable than Donovan in a trade. With Donovan and garbage we end up maybe around 9/10 ish.

They won't do that though... sell off all the vets and tell Don "tough ******* play good so we can trade you". They will keep some of the good players around or make a few moves to round out the roster or trade Bogey/Mike for more win-now oriented moves. Instead of using TPEs to collect unwanted contracts maybe they try and add some fringe additions that fill in rotation spots. Instead of rolling with Udoka and Kessler to get them development time they go find a plumlee.

Its a give and take... saying we can split the baby and still get the best of both worlds is fun but not practical. We won't simultaneously dismantle the roster and keep Donovan.

If you're willing to trade Don, I have no idea why you're not willing to trade the other vets. If you're worried about winning too many games, that is also very easily solved. And as I've said many times before, there's no real benefit to tanking now versus later. I don't care if we start sucking now or later. You don't gain more from tanking faster. If you get a top 5 pick now instead of a 12, somewhere down the line you're going to have a 12 instead of a 5 because you started earlier.

I do think we ultimately trade Don this summer, however, and just like the Rudy trade I think people will be surprised with what we get.....if this MIA deal is what we're expecting to get that is. I just know I'd be upset if we settled and traded for 80% of Don. I think when other buyers feel threatened by fomo and losing out on Don, they will offer up more. NYK and BKN (after KD/Kyrie) have the same/more incentive to trade for Don and will have the means to outbid MIA and I think they will. This MIA offer just isn't a very strong offer. 80% is fairly appropriate IMO, and I think you have to be confident enough to be able to get 80% later on if you pass up on this offer.

 

[TheStormofWar]

Go get Dame?

 

[Gameface]

Go get Dame?

That idea is a good 2 seasons past its prime.

 

[fishonjazz]

Go get Dame?

No thanks. Its a fun idea and would be fun to watch and we would be pretty good.... but not good enough. Too tiny

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you're willing to trade Don, I have no idea why you're not willing to trade the other vets. If you're worried about winning too many games, that is also very easily solved. And as I've said many times before, there's no real benefit to tanking now versus later. I don't care if we start sucking now or later. You don't gain more from tanking faster. If you get a top 5 pick now instead of a 12, somewhere down the line you're going to have a 12 instead of a 5 because you started earlier.

This isn't really how it works at all. If you keep Don you won't sell of all the other parts. If you do that and keep Don it would put him in a horrible spot. Like we are just gonna pretend he isn't on the roster and go full OKC with Don? And then his value magically increases when we put him in a horrible spot?

You do gain a benefit from tanking faster. It isn't this yin and yang thing where we will get a balance of the same types of picks. Look at San Antonio... they hung out in the middle and now get to do a tear down. They have some decent guys but will be on the same timeline as us if we started the tank. You only have to tank until you get your elite talent... you aren't guaranteed to have a treadmill year where you draft 12th at the end of the tank.

Then there is also the impatience aspect of this... enjoying a treadmill season then going into the tank elongates the process and fans/owners start to get impatient the longer it goes. Its gonna hurt... no need to make it longer than it needs to be.