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ESPN predicts wins for every team

utahjazz107

utahjazz107

Active Member
1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 57.9 wins, 0.3 games worse
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 54.8 wins, 9.6 games better
3. Denver Nuggets: 51.1 wins, 2.2 games better
4. Minnesota Timberwolves: 51.0 wins, 16.3 games better
5. San Antonio Spurs: 50.7 wins, 9.3 games worse
6. Los Angeles Clippers: 49.1 wins, 0.6 games worse
7. Utah Jazz: 42.9 wins, 0.1 games worse
Utah has a lot of really nice, young pieces, but as the franchise continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how it's all going to fit together. With so many efficient interior scorers and a growing collection of 3-point shooters, the offense projects to be top-five in the league. However, the defense lags, and it will as long as the Jazz count on Al Jefferson to anchor the middle.

8. Memphis Grizzlies: 42.2 wins, 4.9 games worse
 
That #4 spot is there for the taking if the new players gel, we stay healthy, and the young guns improve.
I don't see any reason for us not to be in the hunt for the 4-5 spot.

The Twolves will probably be flashy, and one of the it teams to start the year. Let's see where they are when AK, and Rubio fall apart in the 2nd half.
 
I think they low ball Memphis and Utah and exaggerate the success of Minny.
 
utahjazz 107, was the Insider article just one person? If so, do you know what he was doing to get decimals in his win totals? The Summer Forecast article sounds like a poll of 100 people at ESPN.
 
Uh, we were 36-30 last year which is 44.7 win pace. So how is our new projection of 42.9 wins 0.1 worse than that? Good job as always ESPN.
 
The thing about is supposedly everyone but Houston got better. Something has to give and somebody is going to have to lose a bunch of games.

It could be Denver despite their talent level. Though Coach Karl is really, really good.

They seem be down on San Antonio. A lot of teams are still trying to put all the pieces together. SA knows exactly what they want to do. Or this could be year that their Big 3 breakdown.

Minnesota is very breakable-see Rubio,AK, Roy, etc.
 
So basically the west is going to be as tough and hard fought as always? Somehow Utah is always right there. they have what 23 years of plays offs out of 25 or something like that. They need to give Utah a little credit due to their nature. I say Utah hits 50ish wins and lands with the 5th seed.
 
nightmare3983 said:
utahjazz 107, was the Insider article just one person? If so, do you know what he was doing to get decimals in his win totals? The Summer Forecast article sounds like a poll of 100 people at ESPN.
Click to expand...

his projections are based on NBAPET, a metric that essentially projects each player's individual performance in terms of impacting the offense and defense, then aggregates those individual win shares into the a team total. that's how there are decimal points.
 
So he is not sure how Utah pieces fit together but he is sure Minny will put everything together to win 51 games. Seriously?
 
Wes Mantooth said:
Uh, we were 36-30 last year which is 44.7 win pace. So how is our new projection of 42.9 wins 0.1 worse than that? Good job as always ESPN.
Click to expand...

he's not comparing them to our win pace for last season... he's comparing the projections to what is called "pythagorean wins per 82 games." pythagorean wins is a method used across many sports that basically adds up to the amount of expected wins based on (offensive rating)/(offensive rating + defensive rating). based on our offensive & defensive numbers from last season, that would correlate to 43.0 pythagorean wins... which is essentially a way of saying we stole 1.7 games that we shouldn't have won based on pythag. calculation.

it's kind of similar to how hollinger uses point differential as a correlator for expected wins. our expected win total last year was 43, and doolittle's projection is that it will stay about the same this year as we improve offensively but regress on the defensive end.
 
theNBAnerd said:
he's not comparing them to our win pace for last season... he's comparing the projections to what is called "pythagorean wins per 82 games." pythagorean wins is a method used across many sports that basically adds up to the amount of expected wins based on (offensive rating)/(offensive rating + defensive rating). based on our offensive & defensive numbers from last season, that would correlate to 43.0 pythagorean wins... which is essentially a way of saying we stole 1.7 games that we shouldn't have won based on pythag. calculation.

it's kind of similar to how hollinger uses point differential as a correlator for expected wins. our expected win total last year was 43, and doolittle's projection is that it will stay about the same this year as we improve offensively but regress on the defensive end.
Click to expand...

thanks for the clarification. he's using a made-up number that means **** to another made-up number that means ****.
 
theNBAnerd said:
his projections are based on NBAPET, a metric that essentially projects each player's individual performance in terms of impacting the offense and defense, then aggregates those individual win shares into the a team total. that's how there are decimal points.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the response! There are so many statistical measures that I can't keep track of them all.
 
cowhide said:
So he is not sure how Utah pieces fit together but he is sure Minny will put everything together to win 51 games. Seriously?
Click to expand...

have you even looked at the piece and looked at his methodology?

remember, this isn't what HE expects at all. this is an objective projection of individual performance that he's putting together into expected team offensive & defensive performance to arrive at expected wins. there is no part of his system that involved sitting back in his chair, stroking his beard and saying, "hmm, i wonder how many wins randy foye will provide the jazz this season."
 
Wes Mantooth said:
thanks for the clarification. he's using a made-up number that means **** to another made-up number that means ****.
Click to expand...

well it might feel that way... the pythagorean method and point differential have actually historically been pretty decent predictors of actual performance. there are obviously some things they can't/won't account for (injuries, a player taking a leap sooner than expected, a team that's extremely lucky/unlucky in close games), but overall, it has historically done a pretty decent job predicting success.
 
theNBAnerd said:
well it might feel that way... the pythagorean method and point differential have actually historically been pretty decent predictors of actual performance. there are obviously some things they can't/won't account for (injuries, a player taking a leap sooner than expected, a team that's extremely lucky/unlucky in close games), but overall, it has historically done a pretty decent job predicting success.
Click to expand...

let me see last year's pre-season predictions and be the judge of that.
 
theNBAnerd said:
have you even looked at the piece and looked at his methodology?

remember, this isn't what HE expects at all. this is an objective projection of individual performance that he's putting together into expected team offensive & defensive performance to arrive at expected wins. there is no part of his system that involved sitting back in his chair, stroking his beard and saying, "hmm, i wonder how many wins randy foye will provide the jazz this season."
Click to expand...

I would like to but I'm an outsider.
 
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