Warning: self-indulgent dissertation follows:
The likelihood of finding an above average NBA starter with our picks is not high. Here’s one possible (and I think not inconceivable) iteration of the offseason I’d be very happy with that doesn’t depend on that unlikelihood:
#14 Gorgui Dieng
#21 Nate Wolters
#46 Andre Roberson
Trade Burks (+ some reasonable extra consideration) for Bledsoe.
Let Millsap, Jefferson, Mo go elsewhere.
Re-sign Foye (if he’ll be OK with backing up Hayward) & Carroll, and possibly McNeal or Tinsley.
Bring Tomic over.
Dieng provides great defense (esp. on P&R) as #4 big. Though he won’t be much of a scorer, his very good passing and much-improved 15-foot jump shot help facilitate the offense.
I think Wolters will surprise people. He has a future in the League as a quality backup PG; big enough to be a shooter as a combo when needed. A much more well-rounded player than many small-school high scorers that don’t make it. I think he’ll be fine on the athleticism front with a backup role. He’ll provide some scoring threat and decent playmaking off the bench.
I see in Andre Roberson Matt Barnes with better rebounding but without the jumpshot (and without being a headcase). Seriously … compare their college stats and look at Roberson’s athleticism on highlight videos. It’s true enough that Roberson is not yet a good shooter, but it’s interesting that Barnes never shot better from 3 until his senior year (which Roberson is now bypassing to enter the draft). Marvin’s contract allows the Jazz brass time to figure out if they think Roberson’s shot will improve. Defense and rebounding should allow him to earn a roster spot for several years, in any case.
I’d be tempted to start Tomic with Favors the first year at least (if Tomic is actually what I think he is: a good rotation player who provides effective low-post scoring and quality passing, but not a star). Then Kanter would play with Dieng. The players in those pairs seem to complement each other quite well. But I’d probably play Kanter more minutes than Tomic. Perhaps a 32-26-22-16 minute distribution for Favors, Kanter, Tomic and Dieng respectively. Or 32-28-26-10. So there would be good chunks of the game with Kanter and Favors in together, but each would play their greatest number of minutes at PF. Marvin can guard stretch fours when needed.
PG: Bledsoe/Wolters/3rd PG
SG: Hayward/Foye
SF: Marvin/Carroll/Roberson
PF: Favors/Kanter/Evans
C: Tomic/Dieng
Advantages
1) Youth is served. At the beginning of the season, other than possible 3rd string additions, all players except Tomic, Marvin, Carroll and Foye will be 23 or under. Tomic will only be 26, Williams and Carroll 27, Foye 30. The core of the team, all similarly aged, will grow together.
2. Favors and Hayward can begin taking leadership of the team, both on and off the court, along with Bledsoe likely. All the players seem to have good character, with personalities that will probably allow the Favors-Hayward centered team identity to emerge.
3. Good athleticism/length/toughness/energy with strong defensive potential. Probably enough shooting and playmaking (though shooting and playmaking may at best be about league average, and if Hayward is injured there could be problems). Should have good enough passing/unselfishness under the Jazz’s system. Improving defense should be Jazz’s #1 priority, in my opinion.
4. Most players in right roles. Favors, Hayward, Bledsoe, Kanter all get substantial minutes. Big-man skills/rotation are complementary.
5. Dirt-cheap in 2013-14, likely plenty of flexibility remaining in 2014-15.
6. If it doesn’t work right away, we’re in the Wiggins, Parker, Harrison, etc sweepstakes with plenty of decent, young talent on the team.
Disadvantages
1. SF problem remains. Marvin might be a bit more assertive on this squad, but long-term issue of having quality starter remains. (But short-term flexibility allows team to chase a scorer on last year or two of contract at the trade deadline if the team overachieves and begins to resemble a contender.)
2. Contract extensions for the young guys will eat up the flexibility rapidly. (But if they indeed prove to be that good, that’s a problem we can live with.)
3. Possibly too much quality inside for everybody to remain happy over the long term. (But we’ll have to see if Tomic and Dieng prove themselves on the NBA level – their ceilings may just be high-level backups/fringe starters).
4. Bledsoe may not be what the Jazz need at PG. Burks may end up with the better career. Schroeder could be available at 14 and end up better than Bledsoe. I think Bledsoe is likelier to bring more value to the Jazz than either Burks or Schroeder, but it’s a close call.