Not too concerned given they had no history of success prior to them joining and there's no one remotely NBA worthy, even as undrafted player, on the roster.
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Ive been weighing that recently to figure out how much of that is how focused I am on the top compared to most years. As a Jazz fan I'm usually not overly focused on the top prospects and instead Im looking at the late lottery players and the sleepers to find a steal. Im just overall less locked in on the late lottery/mid first round guys, I think the big thing is that most of the prospects in that group just dont pop out as having a lot of upside. I also worry that a lot of guys who I like and think have that potential to pop, like a Carter Bryant, might just return to school to get a bigger role and try to be a guaranteed lottery guy in the next draft.
HadAnEffectHere
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I think that was more Ainge spinning after failing to get Jrue, Porzingis, PG13, and Bridges and not getting a big return for Markkanen.
"There are five for sure stars in this draft" was something no one should have said, but Ainge needed to justify a tank.
Harper has star potential and Flagg is a likely superstar, but the rest of the guys are just probably role players (like most drafts)
The 11-20 range is very strong, the 6-10 range is fine, but man, the 3-5 range is not good at all.
I'm not talking about Ainge....media in general was calling this the greatest draft ever. Also, you don't need to justify the tank by looking at the draft. You justify the tank by comparing to the other options and another miserable half tank was not a high bar to clear.
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For added context:
Demin: 10.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists. 42.2%, 27.6%, 66.7%. 16.5 per. 2.1 Win shares
SGA: 14.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists. 48.5%, 40.4%, 81.7%. 21.2 per. 5.2 Win shares
Lonzo: 14.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.6 assists. 55.1%, 41.2%, 67.3%. 24.7 per. 6.8 Win shares
But next year's draft will surely be as good as advertised.
I'll admit to being one of the posters who over hyped this draft. At least I've been consistent in saying that the 2026 draft would be better (there is still time for me to be wrong about that), but I do remember saying that there would be 5-7 all stars from this draft. Right now it's looking more like 2-4 al stars from this draft.
That said, I do think people are being a little over critical of bad games during a season as they happen. We can think back to previous players and remember their pre-NBA careers as a collective, but if you go in to the details you'll find that all of them had occasional bad games.
That said, I do think people are being a little over critical of bad games during a season as they happen. We can think back to previous players and remember their pre-NBA careers as a collective, but if you go in to the details you'll find that all of them had occasional bad games.
Handlogten's Heros
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I still like Demin. But yeah... some of these stats that place arbitrary markers will lead to weird results. If the jumper works he becomes really interesting. If the jumper and the handle work its a pretty high ceiling. Right now he is still a gamble I would justify anywhere in the 10-20 range.
I dont think the draft was overhyped. In general, you can only predict the top of the draft quality years out. In that case, the draft is as advertised. There's 3 really high potential prospects, one being one of the best in recent years.
Handlogten's Heros
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I was getting more bullish on this draft when VJ started to pop off... but then Kas faded. There have been a couple sparkle and fade guys like Fears. i think its a good/solid draft in the top half of the lotto still. I think 2023 is quite a bit better and 2026 should be quite a bit better. Overall the 23-26 window for tanking would be pretty rich but we fumbled the bag in 23.
I think the handle issues with Demin are more of a strength problem. He just gets knocked off his line. When he can gather without being knocked off, he is a good finisher.
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As long as we land top 5 I feel pretty good we can get a building block. The 7+ range I'm having a hard time finding the guys I like and finding a lot of guys I'm out on.
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It depends. To be a pg he will need to improve on both. I think if he just improved the shot he could be a 2/3 and be an incredible second playmaker. Maybe something along the lines of prime Joe Ingles. If I had to pick one skill to move the sliders on it would be the shot. Its why I was so high on him when he was shooting 50% from 3. Then he proceeded to shoot like 10% from 3... sad face.
I do think I've officially come full circle on Edgecombe, and might have him high as #2.
It's funny, if you had just watched him play a random game you'd probably think he's a great shooter who just had an off game. He has great form and takes difficult 3's with confidence. Even if he's not making tough shots, there's got to be a reason why he's allowed to shoot them...the opposite of "open for a reason" if you will. but when you look down you realize he's actually just a horrid shooter and has been a horrid shooter.
The good thing is that he does have good tools. I think he is fairly athletic and his passing is actually legit. He also seems to have a great motor. His shooting and ball handling are awful, but an optimist would say he has low hanging fruit that would exponentially improve his play.
One thought I had is what is more likely, Harper improves his shooting or VJ improves his handle? If you believe VJ can improve his handle, I think he has a case for #2. I was skeptical of him preseason, but I've been impressed by his shooting and passing.
I do think there will be a few all stars drafted in the 7-25 range of this draft. I just also think you have some guys in that range that don't make it to their second contract.
Currently, at least for me, that range is filled with:
- Freshman who are probably being drafted a year early.
- Productive guys who don't seem to fit the NBA
- International prospects who can't shoot
There are a few guys that are safe bets, but I don't remember a year with as many potential swings or misses.
Currently, at least for me, that range is filled with:
- Freshman who are probably being drafted a year early.
- Productive guys who don't seem to fit the NBA
- International prospects who can't shoot
There are a few guys that are safe bets, but I don't remember a year with as many potential swings or misses.
Like I noted, his main issue is his 3pt shot, which I think is fixable. If he was hitting another 1.5 per game of his 3 point shots, his numbers would basically be on par with these guys...