Jackpotting Around Episode 17

[KqWIN]

That's insane to think. Collins as a 3rd big is a very good player.

Also you don't have to play Lyles at all. Huerter is also much easier to trade.

I don't think it's insane at all. You trade Collins, it means more minutes for Kessler and Eubanks. You bring in Huerter, it means less minutes for guys like Sensabaugh. Huerter is also 26 and one year removed from being a quality starter.

 

[idiot]

The Collins to SAC idea sounds like one of those things that would already be done if SAC was actually interested. The proposed scenarios would have diminished our payroll, so a trade wouldn't have needed to wait for the Markkanen extension.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The Collins to SAC idea sounds like one of those things that would already be done if SAC was actually interested. The proposed scenarios would have diminished our payroll, so a trade wouldn't have needed to wait for the Markkanen extension.

The Lauri stuff has slowed everything down in general. You are probably right, but teams aren't in a hurry right now.

 

[idiot]

I don't think it's insane at all. You trade Collins, it means more minutes for Kessler and Eubanks. You bring in Huerter, it means less minutes for guys like Sensabaugh. Huerter is also 26 and one year removed from being a quality starter.

Eubanks (for whatever reason -- I haven't wrapped my mind around it yet, since his basic production looks OK) has been strongly negative in +/- stats basically his whole career (unlike Collins).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What's easier to trade? A 17 million expiring or a 26 million dollar expiring?

If this trade is on the table, which I doubt it is, I don't think the Kings want to commit to that salary, the Jazz would jump on it.

I guess this is why I think the deal is kind of hard to construct. I don't think they are desperate to dump Huerter and he's a guy that is easy to trade separately during the season imo. I'd do Lyles/Huerter for JC straight up. Cut Lyles (he don't like practicing hard and we need some hard practices). Kevin coming off surgery so feels like a great excuse to ease him in and really make sure that shoulder working well.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

B

Eubanks (for whatever reason -- I haven't wrapped my mind around it yet, since his basic production looks OK) has been strongly negative in +/- stats basically his whole career (unlike Collins).

because he's very bad. He sticking around based on vibes.

 

[NUMBERICA]

If we can also trade Kessler somewhere for anything in the ballpark of fair value, sign me all the way up for Collins for $9 million in cap space next offseason.

 

[idiot]

I don't think it's insane at all. You trade Collins, it means more minutes for Kessler and Eubanks. You bring in Huerter, it means less minutes for guys like Sensabaugh. Huerter is also 26 and one year removed from being a quality starter.

I agree that Huerter would probably get some minutes and those would be more "winning" minutes than who we currently have slated to take those minutes. Also agree with @Saint Cy of JFC that it's politically easier for Hardy to sit Huerter than Collins, just given the circumstances of their contract/way they were (would be) acquired.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If we can also trade Kessler somewhere for anything in the ballpark of fair value, sign me all the way up for Collins for $9 million in cap space next offseason.

I think you could easily move Kevin for an expiring if he comes back and shows he's healthy. His shooting last year wasn't awful... in a low pressure environment he might crush.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I agree that Huerter would probably get some minutes and those would be more "winning" minutes than who we currently have slated to take those minutes. Also agree with @Saint Cy of JFC that it's politically easier for Hardy to sit Huerter than Collins, just given the circumstances of their contract/way they were (would be) acquired.

I don't think Huerter is adding many wins. Hes more of an additive to a good team that needs shooting. I think the Kings just have a lot of scoring and shooting, they need more athleticism. Collins gives them, on paper at least, a lot of the things they need. If Devin Carter was healthy, Huerter might be getting 20 mpg.

And I do think Collins can have a very good season for Utah if he's playing 25 mpg off the bench. And I think that would add more wins than having Huerter's shooting

 

[KqWIN]

I agree that Huerter would probably get some minutes and those would be more "winning" minutes than who we currently have slated to take those minutes. Also agree with @Saint Cy of JFC that it's politically easier for Hardy to sit Huerter than Collins, just given the circumstances of their contract/way they were (would be) acquired.

I don't know if one is necessarily easier than the other. They're basically almost the same age and are in a similarish boat where they are both very established but also coming off bad seasons. I don't think it's really a problem to sit vets who aren't worried about their careers. It's not a Rudy Gay situation, for example. Vets who are established and not concerned with their standing may prefer to rest instead of being stranded on the court with a bunch of kids.

IMO, if you make this kind of trade....you kind of overlook whatever tanking effects for getting a different/better asset. I think Huerter is preferred asset for most teams in the association, but SAC happens to be in a situation where they need another big badly and have an odd man out on the perimeter. I don't think every decision needs to be made with lotto balls in mind nor do I actually believe that the FO agonizes over it as much as the fan base. Huerter is no slouch. One year ago he was the type of player that everyone wanted.

Eubanks (for whatever reason -- I haven't wrapped my mind around it yet, since his basic production looks OK) has been strongly negative in +/- stats basically his whole career (unlike Collins).

Eubanks is a replacement level player or slightly above it IMO. I don't know where this sudden craze of using raw +/- on off has come from, but the advanced numbers mostly would agree that he's where I have him. I think he's better than the guys whose minutes would be taken by Huerter, and you would have to think no Collins means even more minutes for Kessler as well.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't know if one is necessarily easier than the other. They're basically almost the same age and are in a similarish boat where they are both very established but also coming off bad seasons. I don't think it's really a problem to sit vets who aren't worried about their careers. It's not a Rudy Gay situation, for example. Vets who are established and not concerned with their standing may prefer to rest instead of being stranded on the court with a bunch of kids.

IMO, if you make this kind of trade....you kind of overlook whatever tanking effects for getting a different/better asset. I think Huerter is preferred asset for most teams in the association, but SAC happens to be in a situation where they need another big badly and have an odd man out on the perimeter. I don't think every decision needs to be made with lotto balls in mind nor do I actually believe that the FO agonizes over it as much as the fan base. Huerter is no slouch. One year ago he was the type of player that everyone wanted.



Eubanks is a replacement level player or slightly above it IMO. I don't know where this sudden craze of using raw +/- on off has come from, but the advanced numbers mostly would agree that he's where I have him. I think he's better than the guys whose minutes would be taken by Huerter, and you would have to think no Collins means even more minutes for Kessler as well.

Basically every offseason except this one Huerter has had more value. So if JC for Huerter/Lyles is really there we should have accepted yesterday. I bet you could even find a third team that would take Huerter for an expiring now.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I don't know if one is necessarily easier than the other. They're basically almost the same age and are in a similarish boat where they are both very established but also coming off bad seasons. I don't think it's really a problem to sit vets who aren't worried about their careers. It's not a Rudy Gay situation, for example. Vets who are established and not concerned with their standing may prefer to rest instead of being stranded on the court with a bunch of kids.

IMO, if you make this kind of trade....you kind of overlook whatever tanking effects for getting a different/better asset. I think Huerter is preferred asset for most teams in the association, but SAC happens to be in a situation where they need another big badly and have an odd man out on the perimeter. I don't think every decision needs to be made with lotto balls in mind nor do I actually believe that the FO agonizes over it as much as the fan base. Huerter is no slouch. One year ago he was the type of player that everyone wanted.



Eubanks is a replacement level player or slightly above it IMO. I don't know where this sudden craze of using raw +/- on off has come from, but the advanced numbers mostly would agree that he's where I have him. I think he's better than the guys whose minutes would be taken by Huerter, and you would have to think no Collins means even more minutes for Kessler as well.

Eubanks is not replacement level. We are past the point where 3rd string center quality players can be called replacement level.

It use to be this popular saying, one HH said many times, that backup centers were easy to find. They aren't. Maybe that was true 7 years ago, but it isn't now. The center position is super competitive and guys like Eubanks just flat out aren't good enough to be in a rotation.

 

[idiot]

Eubanks is a replacement level player or slightly above it IMO. I don't know where this sudden craze of using raw +/- on off has come from, but the advanced numbers mostly would agree that he's where I have him. I think he's better than the guys whose minutes would be taken by Huerter, and you would have to think no Collins means even more minutes for Kessler as well.

When I say raw +/-, I don't mean not just the on-court +/-, but also the off-court +/- (comparing to the +/- of teammates). And I don't take these as determinative over any short period. But when a whole career has been in strongly negative territory, it's hard to argue that he's adding value.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I'll also add that Huerter/Collins were good players next to a Point God. Collins got taken away and put on a bad team and suffered.

Huerter got taken off that team and put on a squad with a point center god and a great playmaking PG.

Huerter was in a position to succeed, I don't think Collins was. Kings can easily convince themselves that Collins was just in a bad situation.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

When I say raw +/-, I don't mean not just the on-court +/-, but also the off-court +/- (comparing to the +/- of teammates). And I don't take these as determinative over any short period. But when a whole career has been in strongly negative territory, it's hard to argue that he's adding value.

Not that the Suns are his fault, but he was in lineups with 3 All-Stars and they were negative lineups with him and positive without him....

 

[KqWIN]

When I say raw +/-, I don't mean not just the on-court +/-, but also the off-court +/- (comparing to the +/- of teammates). And I don't take these as determinative over any short period. But when a whole career has been in strongly negative territory, it's hard to argue that he's adding value.

Right, but those are unadjusted +/- numbers. We have better numbers for that now.

Basically every offseason except this one Huerter has had more value. So if JC for Huerter/Lyles is really there we should have accepted yesterday. I bet you could even find a third team that would take Huerter for an expiring now.

Agreed. Huerter is just a better asset. SAC might be in a unique situation where they simply need a big much more. I would take it in a heartbeat.

Eubanks is not replacement level. We are past the point where 3rd string center quality players can be called replacement level.

It use to be this popular saying, one HH said many times, that backup centers were easy to find. They aren't. Maybe that was true 7 years ago, but it isn't now. The center position is super competitive and guys like Eubanks just flat out aren't good enough to be in a rotation.

Replacement level is literally the level of a guy you get straight out of the G-League. You can't change the definition of replacement level to be beyond replacement level. If you think he is quality 3rd string, that is replacement level. I would say he's probably in between 2nd/3rd string. He's better than most 3rd stringers, worse than you would like from an actual backup. But he's a real NBA player that belongs on rosters and thus is at minimum replacement level.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Right, but those are unadjusted +/- numbers. We have better numbers for that now.



Agreed. Huerter is just a better asset. SAC might be in a unique situation where they simply need a big much more. I would take it in a heartbeat.



Replacement level is literally the level of a guy you get straight out of the G-League. You can't change the definition of replacement level to be beyond replacement level. If you think he is quality 3rd string, that is replacement level. I would say he's probably in between 2nd/3rd string. He's better than most 3rd stringers, worse than you would like from an actual backup. But he's a real NBA player that belongs on rosters and thus is at minimum replacement level.

It sounds like you just made up a definition then stated the definition can't be changed.

 

[KqWIN]

It sounds like you just made up a definition then stated the definition can't be changed.

Replacement level is the level of a freely available talent. Like I said, the guy you can sign at any time from the G-League, that is replacement level. It is a clear cut definition, I did not make up the definition I told you what the definition was.

 

[whatthe]

You could lower the cap more with that trade with Sac and then look at Okoro. Okoro can't shoot so it helps with the losses this season. You do it for Okoro if you feel his shooting will improve. But all his others tools are great.