Jazz and Knicks discussing Donovan Mitchell trade per Shams Charania and Tony Jones

[idiot]

We got 3 unprotected 1sts, a top-5 protected 1st and their #22 pick in this years draft. That’s essentially 5 unprotected 1sts plus a pick swap plus a ton of players who could net us even more picks. It quite literally might end up being one of the biggest hauls in NBA history.

I think you're reading too much into the "unprotected" part of it. A pick likely in the 20s that is unprotected is still likely a pick in the 20s. Could we get lucky? Sure. Should we count on getting lucky? No.

I'll be honest. I'll be shocked (at least in the short term, without unforseen development) if any of the players we acquired gets us anything better than pick #20 (though perhaps packaged together you might do slightly better; but even there, I have my doubts). I think most of them (individually) will not fetch more than a 2nd rounder.

So maybe we'll replenish our stock of 2nd rounders, maybe even get a few additional ones. That, in addition to the several picks in the 20s that are likely coming, isn't nothing, but I'd rather have SGA or Brandon Ingram (or even Lonzo, I think).

This is not to say I don't think the Minny trade was bad on its own terms. I think we did well. But I think all the media noise about how great a deal it was is overblown. We're going to need some luck in order for it to turn into a steal for us.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I think you're reading too much into the "unprotected" part of it. A pick likely in the 20s that is unprotected is still likely a pick in the 20s. Could we get lucky? Sure. Should we count on getting lucky? No.

I'll be honest. I'll be shocked (at least in the short term, without unforseen development) if any of the players we acquired gets us anything better than pick #20 (though perhaps packaged together you might do slightly better; but even there, I have my doubts). I think most of them (individually) will not fetch more than a 2nd rounder.

So maybe we'll replenish our stock of 2nd rounders, maybe even get a few additional ones. That, in addition to the several picks in the 20s that are likely coming, isn't nothing, but I'd rather have SGA or Brandon Ingram (or even Lonzo, I think).

This is not to say I don't think the Minny trade was bad on its own terms. I think we did well. But I think all the media noise about how great a deal it was is overblown. We're going to need some luck in order for it to turn into a steal for us.

We also didn’t trade Paul George or Anthony Davis.

I’m also not reading too much into the unprotected part of the picks. Do you have any clue what Minnesota’s roster will look like in 26/27/29? That’s literally 4/5/7 years from now. That’s why they are so valuable because nobody knows.

All I know is I damn sure will bet on them being closer to the lottery than not when they are in the bottom-3 of winning percentage since 2000.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We also didn’t trade Paul George or Anthony Davis.

I’m also not reading too much into the unprotected part of the picks. Do you have any clue what Minnesota’s roster will look like in 26/27/29? That’s literally 4/5/7 years from now. That’s why they are so valuable because nobody knows.

All I know is I damn sure will bet on them being closer to the lottery than not when they are in the bottom-3 of winning percentage since 2000.

The Clips and Lakers just gave away the #8 and #12 picks... those were supposed to be picks in the 20s... and those aren't even the far out ones they gave in those trades. It doesn't always work out but we shouldn't discount things just based on how they look now. The unprotected picks get a value premium for a reason.

 

[Elizah Huge]

The Clips and Lakers just gave away the #8 and #12 picks... those were supposed to be picks in the 20s... and those aren't even the far out ones they gave in those trades. It doesn't always work out but we shouldn't discount things just based on how they look now. The unprotected picks get a value premium for a reason.

EXACTLY

Also, I’ve said this before but again the value we added to our own picks should be included in the entire totality of the deal. We don’t trade Rudy and our 2024 1st likely conveys to OKC. We also wouldn’t have been able to deal a 1st until 2028 due to protections. The list just goes on and on it’s much more deeper than what people are saying.

 

[Elizah Huge]

It can get really ugly really quick for Minnesota.

Say their 2025 1st ends up being late lottery and we get it. They have no way to improve other than dealing players on their team. Then guess who owns their 2026 1st due to a pick swap option? Then guess who owns their 2027 1st? The list goes on and on. When you deal that many picks that far out you literally can’t do ****.

All three of their best players are all on different timelines. They will have damn near the entire cap allocated to three players.

For what exactly? A couple playoff appearances maybe? A second round exit?

 

[gomretat]

Pay attention to at your own peril:

I dont think the Jazz say to to RJ and 4 first round picks so there is some things not being told here.

We got 3 unprotected 1sts, a top-5 protected 1st and their #22 pick in this years draft. That’s essentially 5 unprotected 1sts plus a pick swap plus a ton of players who could net us even more picks. It quite literally might end up being one of the biggest hauls in NBA history.

It might end up being a great haul and might end getting us nothing close to as good of a player as Rudy. Hope it works out and wish we would trade for real talent.

 

[gomretat]

This is kind of the thing I don't fully buy when everyone talks about how much we fleeced Minnesota and how we're trying to fleece the Knicks.

• SGA was part of the return for Paul George
• Ingram and Ball were part of the AD trade
• Deron Williams netted us two consecutive years' #3 draft picks (Favors & Kanter)
• Gallinari was part of the Carmelo trade
• even the Jrue Holiday trade brought back the productive/tradable Stephen Adams

There are no real studs in the Wolves deal and most of the proposed Knicks deals coming back to us (with all due respect to Grimes and Vanderbilt). Just a bunch of pieces that, as of now, have a likely outcome as useful role player or minor trade chip.

So without this highly regarded player, the "haul" isn't really as great as it's made out to be. It shouldn't be so surprising that we get more picks instead.

Amen.

 

[idiot]

EXACTLY

Also, I’ve said this before but again the value we added to our own picks should be included in the entire totality of the deal. We don’t trade Rudy and our 2024 1st likely conveys to OKC. We also wouldn’t have been able to deal a 1st until 2028 due to protections. The list just goes on and on it’s much more deeper than what people are saying.

I'm with you here. That's a real benefit of the deal. But I don't count it as part of the "haul." Minnesota didn't give us this. When people go back and judge this trade in later years, it's not something you can use to say that the Wolves got fleeced. It's not something that you could add or take away from the deal like a player or 2nd round pick, or something; it's just a fortunate side effect (based on a presumed tank).

 

[idiot]

I’m also not reading too much into the unprotected part of the picks.

Well, you did essentially count a top-5 protected and Walker Kessler (someone who's already been picked #22) as an unprotected.

But as to your more substantial point: I understand what you're saying. Unprotecteds do have real value because of their volatility. But without going back to the raffle-ticket abomination of a discussion, I think we're just likely to disagree about the odds of the Minny picks turning out golden. They could of course. You could end up being proven right (and for the Jazz sake I hope you are). I'm just somewhat more pessimistic (while still believing it was a shot well worth taking for us, given the position last year left us with.)

 

[Avery]

It's not just about the picks, it's about the protections. Five first round picks and filler like Toppin, Grimes is enough if four of those picks are unprotected NYK picks. My guess is NYK will want to apply protections on those while Danny wants them free and clear.

I would consider three unprotected NYK picks, but I think in doing that, you're going to have to throw in more low-value picks like the MIL 2025 pick (and I'd want that protected NYK pick to be protections sooner, not later).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's not just about the picks, it's about the protections. Five first round picks and filler like Toppin, Grimes is enough if four of those picks are unprotected NYK picks. My guess is NYK will want to apply protections on those while Danny wants them free and clear.

I would consider three unprotected NYK picks, but I think in doing that, you're going to have to throw in more low-value picks like the MIL 2025 pick (and I'd want that protected NYK pick to be protections sooner, not later).

Exactly... if we got 6 picks but 4 are the protected ones then its kind of a dud imo. We have to get the upside of having multiple chances at a pick that could be an all-star if we are giving one up.

If we got 6 picks but 4 were unprotected... and we got none of the players we want.. I think that can still be considered success.

 

[jazzfanWA]

LeBron just signed an extension. Expect them to move some picks now. Preferably to us.

When it's all said and done it wiill come to about a million per game.......

 

[BENTLEY]

Anyone know why Reddish’ value is so low? Couldn’t get PT in ATL, and in NYC he still can’t get PT. He hasn’t really been haggled over in any NYK deal either. Seems like Knicks have been resistant to any players Jazz show interest in (even D.Rose), but Reddish is always seemingly regarded as a filler afterthought. I’d be interested to see if Coach Hardy can help Reddish find his feet in the NBA.

Anyone know what’s up w Reddish’ value in the league?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Do you think the Wolves picks are more value as trade assets or should we be holding onto them?

When does each individual pick peak in value?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

View: https://twitter.com/Dunzod/status/1560030823704776704



Interesting if true.

 

[Avery]

Anyone know why Reddish’ value is so low? Couldn’t get PT in ATL, and in NYC he still can’t get PT. He hasn’t really been haggled over in any NYK deal either. Seems like Knicks have been resistant to any players Jazz show interest in (even D.Rose), but Reddish is always seemingly regarded as a filler afterthought. I’d be interested to see if Coach Hardy can help Reddish find his feet in the NBA.

Anyone know what’s up w Reddish’ value in the league?

He just hasn’t been very good. Hasn’t had a decent shooting season in three years. Defense is meh, hasn’t been filling up other stats, just doesn’t seem like he’s more than a rotational guy at best.

But, he’s only 22 and isn’t without talent, but nobody has been able to unlock it yet.

 

[Avery]

Do you think the Wolves picks are more value as trade assets or should we be holding onto them?

When does each individual pick peak in value?

I’d hold on to those suckers like gold. If Edwards bolts for a bigger market and the KAT/Rudy pairing doesn’t work, those picks are game changers.

They are all-in for this moment and as history shows, plans can go awry quickly in this league.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I’d hold on to those suckers like gold. If Edwards bolts for a bigger market and the KAT/Rudy pairing doesn’t work, those picks are game changers.

They are all-in for this moment and as history shows, plans can go awry quickly in this league.

Honestly... they are one long term Rudy injury away from being a play in team next year. They have some depth issues if they have an injury after giving us Bev/ Beasley/Vando. In the play in anything can happen. Next year they likely lose Russell unless he sucks this year and signs for cheap. Kat just runs so hot and cold. Edwards exit won't be until after we have received our picks. Its really about Rudy/KAT/Edwards staying healthy... one of those guys goes down with an ACL or achilles and the cap becomes a problem.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I’d hold on to those suckers like gold. If Edwards bolts for a bigger market and the KAT/Rudy pairing doesn’t work, those picks are game changers.

They are all-in for this moment and as history shows, plans can go awry quickly in this league.

Edwards literally can not bolt to a bigger market for like 6 years...

The Gobert/KAT pairing will work, and if it doesnt, they both have tremendous trade value.

Ohh and Jaden McDaniels is going to be very very good.

Holding onto the picks would be a disaster (unless you draft really well late in the 1st).

Even after the Gobert trade the T'Wolves are pretty well stocked on assets to make improvise their team if things dont go 100% according to plan. With their new management and ownership set-up (and having no incentive to be bad for the next 7 years) I think you are looking at a team that is going to be very good for a while.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Honestly... they are one long term Rudy injury away from being a play in team next year. They have some depth issues if they have an injury after giving us Bev/ Beasley/Vando. In the play in anything can happen. Next year they likely lose Russell unless he sucks this year and signs for cheap. Kat just runs so hot and cold. Edwards exit won't be until after we have received our picks. Its really about Rudy/KAT/Edwards staying healthy... one of those guys goes down with an ACL or achilles and the cap becomes a problem.

They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA....