LDS church membership statistics

[The Thriller]

Also, in today's age, no one should ask about having kids.

I remember this old lady in my home ward growing up. Her schtick was to act obnoxious and do Sunday school introductions. She attempted to be the Betty White of the ward. Anyway, a new couple had barely moved in. One of the first things she asked IN FRONT of everyone, "wait you've been married for 2 years and no kids?"

I remember, I looked at my parents and we rolled our eyes. Ol Betty White did it again! This wouldn't have happened in my bros ward in the northeast. Doubt it would have happened in my friend's ward in Cali. Heck, I don't think it would even happen innBrazil, where there aren't any limits to what people do or say!


What if that couple had been trying? What if one of them had kids from a previous marriage and just weren't ready? What if they simply couldn't afford it? He was a cop who worked midnight shifts and she worked on the phones for a telemarketing company.

It's easy for me to tell them to just have more faith. But in the end, I'm not in their shoes. That's an issue they need to decide on.

 

[babe]

I recall an LDS prophet telling members to not put off having a family before you were financially fit to do so. The advice was to have children right away, and let the Lord worry about taking care of them while you go to school, etc.

I do not recall exactly who it was nor do I care to get into an argument on it, but there you have it if you want to investigate further.

Your memory is factual on this point. You can still find an occasional authoritative comment in this direction if you'll go looking for it personally, but the correlation committee has been editing them out of conference talks and publications. . .

There is no end to the stupidity of human beings, either in giving advice or trying to follow advice. Or criticizing advice.

When it comes to "advice" there is always an assumed context. You can make any advice scandalously stupid if you can just pull out one or two elements of the context. This particular item of advice assumes the virtues of being willing to work for a worthwhile goal, and the availability of jobs or else the intelligence to create a demand for your services when no one else will hire you. It assumes good health, perhaps. . . a lot of other stuff.

However it makes no assumptions about the commandment given in Genesis about the imperative and priority of procreation for mankind, nor about the value of human beings. . ..errrrrr.. . . kids.

I don't think little old ladies with brazen expressions of how we should value children are offensive. I'm pretty sure I did my time enduring criticism for not having kids while active in the LDS church, and more than a hundred little old ladies said stuff like that while looking at me and my wife. Sure someone might take offense if they want. I'm not in the business of just saying stuff that nobody could take offense at. Just not ready to shut up, yet.

The one thing none of us can get around is that God sees us for what we are. . . .. and has tried to point us towards the things that will be best in the long run. This world, or the LDS church, is not the place of eternal rest or idyllic perfection. This life is the chance we have to make a better account of ourselves. It is, and should be, and always will be best if people are willing to make personal sacrifices in this life in an effort to do things that are of enduring or eternal value.

I have complained to God on some occasions about how my efforts to follow casual advice, well-intended perhaps, from people who felt to invoke the mantle or authority of God for what they "promised", when it appeared in the aftermath that God didn't hold Himself accountable for human advisors, but His answer to me has been to look at myself and understand what was wrong in me. Not the platitudes/promises/advice/ideal. If I was 21 again, landing on my feet after my mission, I'd go get married inside of six months, and try to have some kids. . . . that would have been my best chance to do it. Yeah, I had some kids a lot later, but it took everything medical science could offer, plus a couple of miracles from God to do it.

 

[Stoked]

Wait, like you were joking around because you had seen eachother so much for 2 years, or you guys actually didn't like eachother?

I was completely serious. I thought he was a narrow minded, petty little man and I actively disliked him. We had history and did not play well together.

 

[Duck Rodgers]

I was completely serious. I thought he was a narrow minded, petty little man and I actively disliked him. We had history and did not play well together.

Interesting. Because when you see a photo album of somebody's mission or something, it's usually replete with photos of them looking all lovey dovey with their MPs. And they'll be Facebook friends with them after and talk about future reuions and everything. My brother's even stayed at our house when I was little a few times when they would come to Utah.

So what is that relationship typically like on a mission? How often do you seem them/check in with them or whatever?

 

[Stoked]

Interesting. Because when you see a photo album of somebody's mission or something, it's usually replete with photos of them looking all lovey dovey with their MPs. And they'll be Facebook friends with them after and talk about future reuions and everything. My brother's even stayed at our house when I was little a few times when they would come to Utah.

So what is that relationship typically like on a mission? How often do you seem them/check in with them or whatever?

I do not think I have a single photo with my MP in it. (My second MP. The first one was a cool guy)

Most missionaries are that way, or at least have a mutual respect, with their MPs. As for how often you see them it depends on the mission and MPs. I saw mine about once every 2 months. During the last 6 months I say him every month unfortunately.

 

[colton]

Yeah, I was under your last pres for a few months, I can see him having that approach.

Ah, couldn't remember when you moved to East Germany.

Btw, I had 5 mission presidents if you count the MTC.

Pinnegar
Burton
Harper
Paul
Meiser

Wow can't believe I could remember all the names. lol

Of them all Burton was my favorite. Awesome dude. We still keep in touch somewhat.

Impressively long list! Yes, Burton was awesome. Also my favorite of the three I had (Pinnegar, Burton, Harper). Don't think I've talked to him since 1990, so he probably doesn't remember me--but say "Hi" from me next time you talk. Tell him his work ethic (among other things) was very influential in a young missionary's life.

 

[colton]

My brother's mission president did countless idiotic things (mandated his missionaries to knock doors on thanksgiving and Christmas.... Limited email to like 1 email/letter to the family per week, and other ridiculous rules). Would it surprise me if this over zealous and quite honestly, ignorant man advised missionaries who to get married to and when? Nope.

That wasn't in California, was it? When I was ward mission leader in Berkeley we had a mission president like that. After they stood up my friends (didn't show for a dinner appointment, and didn't call to say they couldn't make it because there was a "no calling members" rule temporarily in place), I had to give the missionaries a lecture that basic politeness fell under the "loving your neighbor as yourself" commandment and trumped following stupid mission rules.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

Very well done, thanks Colton. You obviously have waaay to much spare time on your hand

I just have a couple of thoughts.

As for 'exponential growth,' the growth curves look pretty straight to me, I don't see evidence of increasingly rapid growth/exponential growth in the curves, which, if true, should have an increasingly steep slope. Right? Am I missing something or just misinterpreting?

I think that many of us who have been in developing countries have seen how the Church creates branches, wards, stakes, etc. that consist of smallish units that struggle mightily with activity and having sufficient Priesthood to make the unit function. The developing world is full of these types of units. Plus, the reality is that in many developing countries, given poor road infrastructure and lack of transport, I imagine many smallish and weak units are created just for logistical purposes. So, I tend to find the unit growth statistic less impressive than you. That said, you said the membership per unit is increasing (I did not see that graph--is there there and I"m being dumb?), so that appears to contradict what I just said. I wonder how much of unit membership growth is a function of merging units, probably some, but perhaps not too too much?

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

In all due respect to Dalamon's faith...... but I believe the Muslim faith is one religion that does more harm to the world than good. Which is sad because it it really is a small percentage. But when the country's dominant faith is Muslim that country doesn't add much value to the world besides poverty and violence.

https://www.religionfacts.com/islam/places/top_50.htm

That's funny, I think the exact same thing of Christianity. Perhaps less so today, but certainly in the past where Christianity was one of the primary forces of oppression, corruption, murder, human rights abuses, etc. in the entire world.

I'll freely confess, that I'm not a fan of the quite sexist world-view of Islam, particularly in developing countries, and there are other aspect of the religion that bother me, but so to am I not a fan of much of what I view in Christianity, particularly among ardent Evangelicals, who I consider backward, bigoted, intolerant, delusional, and possessing a very strong streak of anti-Democratic authoritarianism in them (along with anti-science magical thinking that they want to impose on the rest of society). I think here the old phrase about those in glass houses throwing rocks is not bad advice.

 

[colton]

Very well done, thanks Colton. You obviously have waaay to much spare time on your hand

Well, it took perhaps an hour. And I was interested, so I figured it was time well spent.

I just have a couple of thoughts.

As for 'exponential growth,' the growth curves look pretty straight to me, I don't see evidence of increasingly rapid growth/exponential growth in the curves, which, if true, should have an increasingly steep slope. Right? Am I missing something or just misinterpreting?

I'll admit it's subjective. I made the blue/green plot first (growth rate), and analyzed that before even making any of the other plots. And to me it looked pretty reasonable to say that within scatter that their are two regions with different growth rates, each region having a more-or-less constant rate within the region. That would imply exponential growth, as you know. Then I made the blue/black plot (#stakes and #wards), and thought that interpretation still was reasonable.

I think that many of us who have been in developing countries have seen how the Church creates branches, wards, stakes, etc. that consist of smallish units that struggle mightily with activity and having sufficient Priesthood to make the unit function. The developing world is full of these types of units. Plus, the reality is that in many developing countries, given poor road infrastructure and lack of transport, I imagine many smallish and weak units are created just for logistical purposes. So, I tend to find the unit growth statistic less impressive than you. That said, you said the membership per unit is increasing (I did not see that graph--is there there and I"m being dumb?), so that appears to contradict what I just said.

I didn't graph that, but you can see the numbers if you click on the link that's in the first post of the thread. Yes, a very clear increase in #members per unit.

I wonder how much of unit membership growth is a function of merging units, probably some, but perhaps not too too much?

I don't know how to get at those numbers, but you could be right. It could be partially that, and partially an increase in the number of inactive members.

Edit: here's the link again to the raw numbers, in case you don't want to go back to post #1: https://www.physics.byu.edu/faculty/colton/personal/lds/membership statistics.html

 

[framer]

I would suspect that the digital records processing project made the difference in 1999. It wasn't long after that when they went to digital scanning of temple recommends, records verification at the local ward and stake level, and numerous other technology upgrades that we see nowadays. Also newborn BIC's are assigned a membership record number.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

It goes both ways. There's many Islamic organizations that denounce extremism, suicide bombings, and civilian deaths-- but they are never given as much attention as the extremist factions of islam

That unfortunately appears to be the case. I frequently read Islam-a-phobes bewailing why moderate Muslims aren't out there condemning the acts of violence/terrorism done by extremists (I don't actually think they care whether they are condemning it, as this is just an excuse for them to justify their Islamaphobia.) In fact, many moderate Muslims are condemning these acts--it's just that they don't get the press. But a quick google search will show anyone who's actually interested in this (rather than just looking for some low effort excuse to be a bigot) to find out for him/her self.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

I love that you give an example of the same exact mistake you are making. So much for the chance to learn.

Indeed. The 'they're doing it to" or 'two wrongs make a right' argument are so self-evidently a bad ones that we routinely teach our children that they're bad arguments. Yet, as adults, many of us continue to use this tired rationalization with abandon.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

ok, a quick read of some of the more recent posts in the other thread (and we need two threads about this because...) is that some sort of a prophesy has been made about the growth of the LDS church and if the church leadership can't show numbers to back up this prophecy it might lead some believers to question the prophecy, and perhaps question the value of their membership in the church? Or something like that...

at least that's my simplistic interpretation of the other thread

and why are there two threads again?

To try to answer your question, at least from my perspective, for what it's worth. It is an interesting topic because for years now, the LDS Church has both informally (part of LDS culture) and formally referenced high growth rates as evidence of the Church's divine mission and its truthfulness. This includes interpreting Daniel 2 as prophesying the rise of the Mormon Church, and the rapid growth being a fulfillment of this prophecy. For rank and file, the rapid growth rates also provide a comforting 'social proof' that serves to validate their own beliefs. So, the way I see it, if the LDS Church and its members like to think such things and make such claims, it's of interest to some see whether the evidence actually supports these claims. From where I sit, if LDS members are uncomfortable that other people put their claims to the test, they ought not make the claims to begin with.

 

[addictionary]

It tastes ****ing amazing. There's also this thing called turkish pizza (Lahmacun I think its called?) which is also delectable.

Yeap. And they are pretty friggin amazing too. But nothing is better than Alexander Doner.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

My mission president asked if I wanted to talk to him about anything before I left. I told him no and I hope to never see or speak to him again. He asked me to leave and I got up and left. Took us about 30 seconds.

Great story. It made me smile for some reason. I take it you did not get along with your MP?

 

[Stoked]

Great story. It made me smile for some reason. I take it you did not get along with your MP?

Not even a little. Long story I'm not inclined to tell.

 

[LogGrad98]

I had issues with one mission pres. After a particular incident I lost some respect for him and the way he handled it. But they are humans too and humans don't always get along. And I think that we often assume that due to the position they are always acting in a state of almost constant inspiration, when in reality they are probably largely muddling along like the rest of us. But our assumptions create a higher than reasonable standard for people that are, in the end, just people.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Yeah, I was under your last pres for a few months, I can see him having that approach. I am not trying to say this was official church doctrine, but to hear almost the exact same message from 2 higher up authorities gives some weight to the notion that having bigger families and marrying young are things the church espoused at one point, probably largely right up until the Proclamation on the Family.


Btw, I had 5 mission presidents if you count the MTC.

Pinnegar
Burton
Harper
Paul
Meiser

Wow can't believe I could remember all the names. lol

Of them all Burton was my favorite. Awesome dude. We still keep in touch somewhat.

I've got you beat by 2. I had 7 (in an 18-mth mission): 2 at the MTC, 2 in NY and 3 in Brazil.

 

[babe]

I've got you beat by 2. I had 7 (in an 18-mth mission): 2 at the MTC, 2 in NY and 3 in Brazil.

just trying to comprehend this saga. . . . you studied Portugeese in the MTC...... oh maybe six weeks, that happened spanning an MP turnover...... gotcha. . . .


then, pending approval of a visa for Brazil were sent to NYC where there's a Little Brazil where inside four weeks there was another MP turnover. . . .

but that leaves you in Brazil for maybe fifteen months. . . . how did you chalk up three MPs there? one turnover I can understand, but that's only two of them. . . . hhmmmm. . . . did one of the MPs have a short term because of medical reasons or something?

how do you feel this relates to your present world-view? A lot of kids on missions get the idea the MPs are Jesus-level authorities. . . . I imagine you saw some things that brought your awe down to earth.